What's Next: China

倍可亲(backchina.com)　　美国《新闻周刊》国际版本年度最后一期刊登系列文章，介绍中国过去30年发展历程，评述中国未来走向。

　　在文章作者之一法里德·扎卡里亚看来，对中国成为全球大国，继先前颇多预兆之后，时下已“不再是一种预测，而是一种现实”。

　　扎卡里亚认为，世界可能在2008年目睹中国走上全球舞台的中心。

　　说奥运

　　这期《新闻周刊》国际版标注的发行日期为本月31日，实际则按照惯例提前出版并发布在这家刊物的网站上。

　　杂志封面刊印的人物是中国篮球运动员姚明。

　　为何以体育切入中国话题，扎卡里亚在文章中透出些许信息。按照他的说法，中国在走上世界舞台中心的进程中主办2008年夏季奥林匹克运动会，犹如一些西方国家习惯上“为初入社交圈举办晚会”。

　　在系列文章另一名作者马克·斯塔尔的表述中，中国顺利举办下届奥运会将意味着“许多收获，包括与其他任何国家相比赢得更多奖牌”。

　　斯塔尔在题为《奥运雄心》的文章中写道，“举凡奥运金牌，都闪亮夺目，但分量并不相同。中国代表团在2004年雅典奥运会上夺得32枚金牌，其中分量最重者莫过于时年20岁的刘翔赢得男子110米跨栏比赛那一枚，因为那是中国男子选手在奥运田径赛场上夺得的第一枚金牌”。

　　以历届奥运会的情况为参照，作者推断，下届奥运会“主场”优势可以让中国代表团所获奖牌增加。

　　议中国

　　以中国为“封面报道”题材，《新闻周刊》国际版的开篇文章由扎卡里亚撰写，题为《一个强大而脆弱超级大国的崛起》。

　　议及中国“强大”之处，扎卡里亚称，在一系列问题上，中国已经成为就全球重要性而言排名第二的国家。以2007年为例，中国对全球经济增长的贡献首次超过美国，对美国而言则是自20世纪30年代以来首次遭到其他国家超越；而且，中国成为世界最大的消费国，在5类基本食品、能源和工业制成品中，4类的消费量美国居中国之后。

　　他写道：“无论是在贸易和全球气候升温问题，还是苏丹达尔富尔和朝鲜问题，中国都已成为新的变量，没有中国参与就不可能形成持久解决方案。”

　　议及中国“脆弱”之处，扎卡里亚借用了女学者苏珊·舍克以中国为题材一本新作的书名，即《脆弱的超级大国》。

　　扎卡里亚认为，之所以“脆弱”，与中国超常发展直接相关。

　　他写道，中国“作为全球大国的独特之处在于，它是现代史上第一个国家，既按照综合国力衡量堪称富国，又按照人均国力衡量属于穷国”。他注意到，中国自视为发展中国家，有着几亿农村人口。

　　就中美民众对“脆弱”和“强大”概念的不同认知，学者舍克有一段体验：提及自己新作的书名，她在美国引起的反应是，“脆弱？中国看似并不脆弱”。而在中国，她得到的反应是，“超级大国？中国不是超级大国”。

　　论美国

　　同样由认知差异使然，扎卡里亚写道，一些美国学者和参与政策制订的知识分子以及少数五角大楼高层职业军人把中国发展视为为强国之间不可避免地爆发冲突甚至战争埋下了种子。

　　但这名作者举例反证说，美国在发展进程中超越英国而成为全球头号强国时，美英之间并没有爆发战争。

　　依照他的判断，尤其是在经济领域，美中之间冲突和竞争不可避免，但是否会恶化为更严重境地，在相当大程度上将取决于两国领导层今后十年间作出的政策选择。对于这一态势，双方都有了解。

　　论及美中关系前景，现任纽约市长迈克尔·布隆伯格在同一期《新闻周刊》国际版发表文章，题为《一场我们大家都能赢的竞赛》。

　　布隆伯格开篇写道：“中国过去20年间的经济转型是一个令人着迷、却依然令人看不透的故事。不少美国政客玩弄选民的经济不安全感，把中国当作替罪羊，暗示中国是我们（美国）出现问题的根源，是我们（美国）繁荣的威胁。”

　　而“以我在私营企业从业35年以及管理美国最大城市（纽约）6年的经验，”他告诉读者，“我相信，中国不是一个威胁，而是一个机遇，一个令人难以置信的大好机遇”。

　　他的结论是，相对于中国，美国依然有内在优势，只是不能止步不前。

　　The December 31, 2007 - January 7, 2008 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, December 24), "What's Next: China" explains how China's ascension to a global superpower is no longer a forecast but a reality. In the cover package, a team of correspondents and columnists look at China's dramatic changes, its new place in the world and its hopes for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Plus: the people, ideas, issues and items that will most likely make an impact in 2008. (PRNewsFoto/Newsweek)

　　


　　The Beijing Olympics and Impressive Growth Ensure That 2008 will be the

　　Year of China

　　China's Rise as a Global Superpower is no Longer a Prediction

　　NEW YORK, Dec. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- China's ascension to a global

　　superpower is no longer a forecast but a reality. Three decades after its

　　emergence from Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution, China has grown from one

　　of the world's poorest countries to the second most important country on

　　the planet, according to Newsweek International Editor Fareed Zakaria in

　　the December 31, 2007-January 7, 2008 double issue "What's Next: China" (on

　　newsstands Monday, December 24). China's new position as a superpower,

　　however, is still fragile and it is up to them as well as the United States

　　to handle this shift peacefully.

　　(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20071223/NYSU001 )

　　In two decades China has experienced the same degree of

　　industrialization, urbanization and social transformation as Europe did in

　　two centuries. Zakaria writes that so far Beijing has managed to balance

　　economic growth and social stability in a highly fluid environment. Some

　　scholars and policy intellectuals (and a few generals in the Pentagon) look

　　at the rise of China and see the seeds of inevitable great-power conflict

　　and perhaps even war. "Look at history, they say. When a new power rises it

　　inevitably disturbs the balance of power, unsettles the international order

　　and seeks a place in the sun. This makes it bump up against the established

　　great power of the day (that would be us)," he writes. "Conflict and

　　competition -- particularly in the economic realm -- between China and the

　　United States is inevitable. But whether this turns ugly depends largely on

　　policy choices that will be made in Washington and Beijing over the next

　　decade."

　　But while the conditions exist for peace and cooperation, there are

　　also many factors pointing in the other direction. As China grows in

　　strength, it grows in pride and nationalist feeling -- which will be on

　　full display at the Summer Olympic Games. Beijing's mandarin class is

　　convinced that the United States wishes it ill. Washington, meanwhile --

　　sitting atop a unipolar order -- is unused to the idea of sharing power or

　　accommodating another great power's interests. Flashpoints like human

　　rights, Taiwan or some unforeseen incident could spiral badly.

　　The cover package also includes:

　　-- A personal essay by Beijing Bureau Chief Melinda Liu. Liu, who opened

　　the first American newsmagazine bureau in Beijing since the communists

　　came to power, writes about the vast changes she has seen since 1979

　　and how they have transformed her life and the lives of her family

　　members. Starting with the Gang of Four trial, she witnessed China's

　　slow emergence from the wreckage of the Mao years, the horrific

　　bloodletting at Tiananmen Square, the rise of nationalist sentiment and

　　handover of Hong Kong, and Beijing's gradual attempts to integrate

　　itself into the world. Liu also shares the story of how her family

　　became separated from her brother Guangyuan in 1949 and was reunited 30

　　years later.

　　-- Sports Editor Mark Starr writes about China's Olympic ambitions. China

　　seems poised to knock the United States off its Olympic perch-if not

　　in Beijing, then in 2012 or 2016, but its interests go beyond medals.

　　Starr writes that far more is at stake in Beijing than athletic

　　supremacy. "Beijing is a target for a host of international

　　grievances -- human rights, environmental practices, food and

　　manufacturing safety. The Games are its chance to sell the world on a

　　more benevolent vision of China," he writes.

　　-- Excerpts from the upcoming book "The China Diary of George H.W. Bush,"

　　in which the former president chronicled his experience in Mao's China

　　between October 1974 and December 1975. During his trip, Bush wrestled

　　with a tough, impenetrable Communist regime; a populace that was

　　alternately warm and xenophobic; and the repercussions of the American

　　defeat in Southeast Asia. The experience began to clarify his views on

　　the workings of the international system-and, most important, America's

　　place within it.

　　-- New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg contributes a column in which

　　he writes, "Just as a growing American economy is good for China, a

　　growing Chinese economy is good for America. That means we have a stake

　　in working together to solve common problems, rather than trying to

　　browbeat or intimidate the other into action. And it means we should

　　seize on opportunities to learn from one another."

　　(Read the cover package at http://www.Newsweek.com)

　　Fragile Superpower: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81588

　　Mao to Now: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81589

　　President Bush's Diary: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81591

　　Olympian Ambitions: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81590

　　A Race We All Can Win: http://www.newsweek.com/id/81592