McKinsey: 7 Predictions for China in 2009

Bill Chamberlin whchamb@us.ibm.com 12 Nov 2008

Gordon Orr, a director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office, authored an article in the October 2008 issue of McKinsey Quarterly titled "Seven ways China might surprise us in 2009" . Here are his predictions....

1) China announces that by 2020, half of the cars in the country will be electric. It invests tens of billions of dollars in R&D toward achieving that goal.

2) The Chinese government buys a 50-year lease on an entire geographic region of Mexico, enabling Chinese companies to build factories there to supply the North American market more easily.

3) A major office block collapses in Chaoyang, Beijing’s central business district.

4) A leading Chinese company tries to buy an iconic US technology firm (or two).

5) A restructuring of China’s telecommunications industry turns into a complete consolidation.

6) The English Premier League football association buys its Chinese counterpart, the Chinese Super League.

7) Warming cross-strait relationships lead to a merger between the mainland’s Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Taiwan’s Chinatrust Commercial Bank.

I don't think Mr. Orr truly believes all these will happen, but he is in a position to influence and perhaps this is what he is doing. Of the seven predictions, #1 and #2 caught my eye as very interesting predictions. While I don't see #1 happening in 2009, it would be a very significant it did happen. I can certainly see #4 happening in the future...especially if the U.S. economy continues to spiral downwards.