By Craig Wilson, USA TODAY
Ah, Sesame Street. Big Bird. Bert and Ernie. Grover. The Cookie Monster. The good old days.
The street is still hot. It celebrates its 40th year in 2009 with its largest audience: 8 million viewers on 350 stations in 120 countries.
Not wanting to be left out of the fun, hundreds of celebrities have visited TV's most famous boulevard over the years. Sarah Jessica Parker appeared to discuss the art of sighing, first lady Laura Bush stopped by to read, and Robin Williams waxed eloquent on the wonders of feet.
Now a book, the first out of the gate to mark the anniversary, is arriving in stores. Street Gang: The Complete History of Sesame Street (Viking, 384 pp, $27.95) is by Michael Davis, a former columnist for TV Guide who spent many happy hours wandering Sesame Street with his children.
"It touched me in a very profound way," Davis says.
Davis spent five years reporting and writing the story of the longest-running children's show in TV history, which was the brainchild of Jim Henson, the late Muppets creator, and entrepreneur Joan Ganz Cooney. Davis refers to the show as "a confluence of genius" and dubs Henson "wondrously human."
Sesame Street began on Nov. 10, 1969, as an educational children's show and evolved into a sophisticated program that combined education and entertainment.
Carol-Lynn Parente, Sesame Street's executive producer, has been with the show 20 years and sees the magic firsthand.
"There are times that some of what makes this work is mysterious even to us," Parente says. "But the essence of what has made us as successful as we've been is our ability to evolve. The life of a preschooler today is much different than it was in 1969."
Davis believes the show will go on forever. "They still approach each season as an experiment. As long as they do that, they will grow and change as children grow and change and the culture grows and changes."
Some 40th-anniversary highlights scheduled in 2009:
• A panel discussion Jan. 30 featuring the show's contributors at William Paterson University in Wayne, N.J.
• Another book, Sesame Street: A Celebration of Forty Years of Life on the Street, by Louise Gikow (Black Dog & Leventhal, fall).
• A Sesame Street: 40th Anniversary two-disc DVD (November release).
2008年12月31日星期三
2008年12月30日星期二
孙振耀退休感言
一、关于工作与生活
我有个有趣的观察，外企公司多的是25-35岁的白领，40岁以上的员工很少，二三十岁的外企员工是意气风发的，但外企公司40岁附近的经理人是很尴尬的。我见过的40岁
附近的外企经理人大多在一直跳槽，最后大多跳到民企，比方说，唐骏。外企员工的成功很大程度上是公司的成功，并非个人的成功，西门子的确比国美大，但并不代表西门
子中国经理比国美的老板强，甚至可以说差得很远。而进外企的人往往并不能很早理解这一点，把自己的成功90％归功于自己的能力，实际上，外企公司随便换个中国区总经
理并不会给业绩带来什么了不起的影响。好了问题来了，当这些经理人40多岁了，他们的薪资要求变得很高，而他们的才能其实又不是那么出众，作为外企公司的老板，你会
怎么选择？有的是只要不高薪水的，要出位的精明强干精力冲沛的年轻人，有的是，为什么还要用你？
从上面这个例子，其实可以看到我们的工作轨迹，二三十岁的时候，生活的压力还比较小，身体还比较好，上面的父母身体还好，下面又没有孩子，不用还房贷，也没有
孩子要上大学，当个外企小白领还是很光鲜的，挣得不多也够花了。但是人终归要结婚生子，终归会老，到了40岁，父母老了，要看病要吃药，要有人看护，自己要还房贷，
要过基本体面的生活，要养小孩……那个时候需要挣多少钱才够花才重要。所以，看待工作，眼光要放远一点，一时的谁高谁低并不能说明什么。
从这个角度上来说，我不太赞成过于关注第一份工作的薪水，更没有必要攀比第一份工作的薪水，这在刚刚出校园的学生中间是很常见的。正常人大概要工作35年，这好
比是一场马拉松比赛，和真正的马拉松比赛不同的是，这次比赛没有职业选手，每个人都只有一次机会。要知到，有很多人甚至坚持不到终点，大多数人最后是走到终点的，
只有少数人是跑过终点的，因此在刚开始的时候，去抢领先的位置并没有太大的意义。刚进社会的时候如果进500强公司，大概能拿到3k-6k/月的工资，有些特别技术的人才可
能可以到8k/月，可问题是，5年以后拿多少？估计5k-10k了不起了。起点虽然高，但增幅有限，而且，后面的年轻人追赶的压力越来越大。
我前两天问我的一个销售，你会的这些东西一个新人2年就都学会了，但新人所要求的薪水却只是你的一半，到时候，你怎么办？
职业生涯就像一场体育比赛，有初赛、复赛、决赛。初赛的时候大家都刚刚进社会，大多数都是实力一般的人，这时候努力一点认真一点很快就能让人脱颖而出，于是
有的人二十多岁做了经理，有的人迟些也终于赢得了初赛，三十多岁成了经理。然后是复赛，能参加复赛的都是赢得初赛的，每个人都有些能耐，在聪明才智上都不成问题，
这个时候再想要胜出就不那么容易了，单靠一点点努力和认真还不够，要有很强的坚忍精神，要懂得靠团队的力量，要懂得收服人心，要有长远的眼光……
看上去赢得复赛并不容易，但，还不是那么难。因为这个世界的规律就是给人一点成功的同时让人骄傲自满，刚刚赢得初赛的人往往不知道自己赢得的仅仅是初赛，有了
一点小小的成绩大多数人都会骄傲自满起来，认为自己已经懂得了全部，不需要再努力再学习了，他们会认为之所以不能再进一步已经不是自己的原因了。虽然他们仍然不好
对付，但是他们没有耐性，没有容人的度量，更没有清晰长远的目光。就像一只愤怒的斗牛，虽然猛烈，最终是会败的，而赢得复赛的人则象斗牛士一样，不急不躁，跟随着
自己的节拍，慢慢耗尽对手的耐心和体力。赢得了复赛以后，大约已经是一位很了不起的职业经理人了，当上了中小公司的总经理，大公司的副总经理，主管着每年几千万乃
至几亿的生意。
最终的决赛来了，说实话我自己都还没有赢得决赛，因此对于决赛的决胜因素也只能凭自己的猜测而已，这个时候的输赢或许就像武侠小说里写得那样，大家都是高手，
只能等待对方犯错了，要想轻易击败对手是不可能的，除了使上浑身解数，还需要一点运气和时间。世界的规律依然发挥着作用，赢得复赛的人已经不只是骄傲自满了，他们
往往刚愎自用，听不进去别人的话，有些人的脾气变得暴躁，心情变得浮躁，身体变得糟糕，他们最大的敌人就是他们自己，在决赛中要做的只是不被自己击败，等着别人被
自己击败。这和体育比赛是一样的，最后高手之间的比赛，就看谁失误少谁就赢得了决赛。
二、 根源
你工作快乐么？你的工作好么？
有没有觉得干了一段时间以后工作很不开心？有没有觉得自己入错了行？有没有觉得自己没有得到应有的待遇？有没有觉得工作像一团乱麻每天上班都是一种痛苦？有没
有很想换个工作？有没有觉得其实现在的公司并没有当初想象得那么好？有没有觉得这份工作是当初因为生存压力而找的，实在不适合自己？你从工作中得到你想要得到的了
么？你每天开心么？
天涯上愤怒的人很多，你有没有想过，你为什么不快乐？你为什么愤怒？
其实，你不快乐的根源，是因为你不知道要什么！你不知道要什么，所以你不知道去追求什么，你不知道追求什么，所以你什么也得不到。
我总觉得，职业生涯首先要关注的是自己，自己想要什么？大多数人大概没想过这个问题，唯一的想法只是——我想要一份工作，我想要一份不错的薪水，我知道所有人
对于薪水的渴望，可是，你想每隔几年重来一次找工作的过程么？你想每年都在这种对于工作和薪水的焦急不安中度过么？不想的话，就好好想清楚。饮鸩止渴，不能因为口
渴就拼命喝毒药。越是焦急，越是觉得自己需要一份工作，越饥不择食，越想不清楚，越容易失败，你的经历越来越差，下一份工作的人看着你的简历就皱眉头。于是你越喝
越渴，越渴越喝，陷入恶性循环。最终只能哀叹世事不公或者生不逢时，只能到天涯上来发泄一把，在失败者的共鸣当中寻求一点心理平衡罢了。大多数人都有生存压力，我
也是，有生存压力就会有很多焦虑，积极的人会从焦虑中得到动力，而消极的人则会因为焦虑而迷失方向。所有人都必须在压力下做出选择，这就是世道，你喜欢也罢不喜欢
也罢。
一般我们处理的事情分为重要的事情和紧急的事情，如果不做重要的事情就会常常去做紧急的事情。比如锻炼身体保持健康是重要的事情，而看病则是紧急的事情。如果
不锻炼身体保持健康，就会常常为了病痛烦恼。又比如防火是重要的事情，而救火是紧急的事情，如果不注意防火，就要常常救火。找工作也是如此，想好自己究竟要什么是
重要的事情，找工作是紧急的事情，如果不想好，就会常常要找工作。往往紧急的事情给人的压力比较大，迫使人们去赶紧做，相对来说重要的事情反而没有那么大的压力，
大多数人做事情都是以压力为导向的，压力之下，总觉得非要先做紧急的事情，结果就是永远到处救火，永远没有停歇的时候。（很多人的工作也像是救火队一样忙碌痛苦，
也是因为工作中没有做好重要的事情。）那些说自己活在水深火热为了生存顾不上那么多的朋友，今天找工作困难是当初你们没有做重要的事情，是结果不是原因。如果今天
你们还是因为急于要找一份工作而不去思考，那么或许将来要继续承受痛苦找工作的结果。
我始终觉得我要说的话题，沉重了点，需要很多思考，远比唐笑打武警的话题来的枯燥乏味，但是，天下没有轻松的成功，成功，要付代价。请先忘记一切的生存压力，
想想这辈子你最想要的是什么？所以，最要紧的事情，先想好自己想要什么。
三、什么是好工作
当初微软有个唐骏，很多大学里的年轻人觉得这才是他们向往的职业生涯，我在清华bbs里发的帖子被这些学子们所不屑，那个时候学生们只想出国或者去外企，不过如今
看来，我还是对的，唐骏去了盛大，陈天桥创立的盛大，一家民营公司。一个高学历的海归在500强的公司里拿高薪水，这大约是很多年轻人的梦想，问题是，每年毕业的大学
生都在做这个梦，好的职位却只有500个。
人都是要面子的，也是喜欢攀比的，即使在工作上也喜欢攀比，不管那是不是自己想要的。大家认为外企公司很好，可是好在哪里呢？好吧，他们在比较好的写字楼，这
是你想要的么？他们出差住比较好的酒店，这是你想要的么？别人会羡慕一份外企公司的工作，这是你想要的么？那一切都是给别人看的，你干吗要活得那么辛苦给别人看？
另一方面，他们薪水福利一般，并没有特别了不起，他们的晋升机会比较少，很难做到很高阶的主管，他们虽然厌恶常常加班，却不敢不加班，因为“你不干有得是人干”，
大部分情况下会找个台湾人香港人新加坡人来管你，而这些人又往往有些莫名其妙的优越感。你想清楚了么？500强一定好么？找工作究竟是考虑你想要什么，还是考虑别人想
看什么？
我的大学同学们大多数都到美国了，甚至毕业这么多年了，还有人最近到国外去了。出国真的有那么好么？我的大学同学们，大多数还是在博士、博士后、访问学者地
挣扎着，至今只有一个正经在一个美国大学里拿到个正式的教职。国内的教授很难当么？我有几个表亲也去了国外了，他们的父母独自在国内，没有人照顾，有好几次人在
家里昏倒都没人知道，出国，真的这么光彩么？就像有人说的“很多事情就像看A片，看的人觉得很爽，做的人未必。”
人总想找到那个最好的，可是，什么是最好的？你觉得是最好的那个，是因为你的确了解，还是因为别人说他是最好的？即使他对于别人是最好的，对于你也一定是最好的么？
对于自己想要什么，自己要最清楚，别人的意见并不是那么重要。很多人总是常常被别人的意见所影响，亲戚的意见，朋友的意见，同事的意见……问题是，你究竟是要
过谁的一生？人的一生不是父母一生的续集，也不是儿女一生的前传，更不是朋友一生的外篇，只有你自己对自己的一生负责，别人无法也负不起这个责任。自己做的决定，
至少到最后，自己没什么可后悔。对于大多数正常智力的人来说，所做的决定没有大的对错，无论怎么样的选择，都是可以尝试的。比如你没有考自己上的那个学校，没有入
现在这个行业，这辈子就过不下去了？就会很失败？不见得。
我想，好工作，应该是适合你的工作，具体点说，应该是能给你带来你想要的东西的工作，你或许应该以此来衡量你的工作究竟好不好，而不是拿公司的大小，规模，外
企还是国企，是不是有名，是不是上市公司来衡量。小公司，未必不是好公司，赚钱多的工作，也未必是好工作。你还是要先弄清楚你想要什么，如果你不清楚你想要什么，
你就永远也不会找到好工作，因为你永远只看到你得不到的东西，你得到的，都是你不想要的。
可能，最好的，已经在你的身边，只是，你还没有学会珍惜。人们总是盯着得不到的东西，而忽视了那些已经得到的东西。
四、普通人
我发现中国人的励志和国外的励志存在非常大的不同，中国的励志比较鼓励人立下大志愿，卧薪尝胆，有朝一日成富成贵。而国外的励志比较鼓励人勇敢面对现实生活，
面对普通人的困境，虽然结果也是成富成贵，但起点不一样，相对来说，我觉得后者在操作上更现实，而前者则需要用999个失败者来堆砌一个成功者的故事。
我们都是普通人，普通人的意思就是，概率这件事是很准的。因此，我们不会买彩票中500万，我们不会成为比尔盖茨或者李嘉诚，我们不会坐飞机掉下来，我们当中很少
的人会创业成功，我们之中有30％的人会离婚，我们之中大部分人会活过65岁……
所以请你在想自己要什么的时候，要得“现实”一点，你说我想要做李嘉诚，抱歉，我帮不上你。成为比尔盖茨或者李嘉诚这种人，是靠命的，看我写的这篇文章绝对
不会让你成为他们，即使你成为了他们，也绝对不是我这篇文章的功劳。“王侯将相宁有种乎”但真正当皇帝的只有一个人，王侯将相，人也不多。目标定得高些对于喜欢挑
战的人来说有好处，但对于大多数普通人来说，反而比较容易灰心沮丧，很容易就放弃了。
回过头来说，李嘉诚比你有钱大致50万倍，他比你更快乐么？或许。有没有比你快乐50万倍，一定没有。他比你最多也就快乐一两倍，甚至有可能还不如你快乐。寻找自
己想要的东西不是和别人比赛，比谁要得更多更高，比谁的目标更远大。虽然成为李嘉诚这个目标很宏大，但你并不见得会从这个目标以及追求目标的过程当中获得快乐，而
且基本上你也做不到。你必须听听你内心的声音，寻找真正能够使你获得快乐的东西，那才是你想要的东西。
你想要的东西，或者我们把它称之为目标，目标其实并没有高低之分，你不需要因为自己的目标没有别人远大而不好意思，达到自己的目标其实就是成功，成功有大有
小，快乐却是一样的。我们追逐成功，其实追逐的是成功带来的快乐，而非成功本身。职业生涯的道路上，我们常常会被攀比的心态蒙住眼睛，忘记了追求的究竟是什么，忘
记了是什么能使我们更快乐。
社会上一夜暴富的新闻很多，这些消息，总会在我们的心里面掀起很多涟漪，涟漪多了就变成惊涛骇浪，心里的惊涛骇浪除了打翻承载你目标的小船，并不会使得你也一
夜暴富。“只见贼吃肉，不见贼挨揍。”我们这些普通人既没有当贼的勇气，又缺乏当贼的狠辣绝决，虽然羡慕吃肉，却更害怕挨揍，偶尔看到几个没挨揍的贼就按奈不住，
或者心思活动，或者大感不公，真要叫去做贼，却也不敢。
我还是过普通人的日子，要普通人的快乐，至少，晚上睡得着觉。
五、跳槽与积累
首先要说明，工作是一件需要理智的事情，所以不要在工作上耍个性，天涯上或许会有人觉得你很有个性而叫好，煤气公司电话公司不会因为觉得你很有个性而免了你的
帐单。当你很帅地炒掉了你的老板，当你很酷地挖苦了一番招聘的HR，账单还是要照付，只是你赚钱的时间更少了，除了你自己，没人受损失。
我并不反对跳槽，但跳槽决不是解决问题的办法，而且频繁跳槽的后果是让人觉得没有忠诚度可言，而且不能安心工作。现在很多人从网上找工作，很多找工作的网站常
常给人出些馊主意，要知道他们是盈利性企业，当然要从自身盈利的角度来考虑，大家越是频繁跳槽频繁找工作他们越是生意兴隆，所以鼓动人们跳槽是他们的工作。所以他
们会常常告诉你，你拿的薪水少了，你享受的福利待遇差了，又是“薪情快报”又是“赞叹自由奔放的灵魂”。至于是否会因此让你不能安心，你跳了槽是否解决问题，是
否更加开心，那个，他们管不着。
要跳槽肯定是有问题，一般来说问题发生了，躲是躲不开的，很多人跳槽是因为这样或者那样的不开心，如果这种不开心，在现在这个公司不能解决，那么在下一个公司
多半也解决不掉。你必须相信，90%的情况下，你所在的公司并没有那么烂，你认为不错的公司也没有那么好。就像围城里说的，“城里的人拼命想冲出来，而城外的人拼命想
冲进去。”每个公司都有每个公司的问题，没有问题的公司是不存在的。换个环境你都不知道会碰到什么问题，与其如此，不如就在当下把问题解决掉。很多问题当你真的想
要去解决的时候，或许并没有那么难。有的时候你觉得问题无法解决，事实上，那只是“你觉得”。
人生的曲线应该是曲折向上的，偶尔会遇到低谷但大趋势总归是曲折向上的，而不是象脉冲波一样每每回到起点，我见过不少面试者，30多岁了，四五份工作经历，每次
多则3年，少则1年，30多岁的时候回到起点从一个初级职位开始干起，拿基本初级的薪水，和20多岁的年轻人一起竞争，不觉得有点辛苦么？这种日子好过么？
我非常不赞成在一个行业超过3年以后换行业，基本上，35岁以前我们的生存资本靠打拼，35岁以生存的资本靠的就是积累，这种积累包括人际关系，经验，人脉，口
碑……如果常常更换行业，代表几年的积累付之东流，一切从头开始，如果换了两次行业，35岁的时候大概只有5年以下的积累，而一个没有换过行业的人至少有了10年的积
累，谁会占优势？工作到2-3年的时候，很多人觉得工作不顺利，好像到了一个瓶颈，心情烦闷，就想辞职，乃至换一个行业，觉得这样所有一切烦恼都可以抛开，会好很多。
其实这样做只是让你从头开始，到了时候还是会发生和原来行业一样的困难，熬过去就向上跨了一大步，要知道每个人都会经历这个过程，每个人的职业生涯中都会碰到几个
瓶颈，你熬过去了而别人没有熬过去你就领先了。跑长跑的人会知道，开始的时候很轻松，但是很快会有第一次的难受，但过了这一段又能跑很长一段，接下来会碰到第二次
的难受，坚持过了以后又能跑一段，如此往复，难受一次比一次厉害，直到坚持不下去了。大多数人第一次就坚持不了了，一些人能坚持到第二次，第三次虽然大家都坚持不
住了，可是跑到这里的人也没几个了，这点资本足够你安稳活这一辈子了。
一份工作到两三年的时候，大部分人都会变成熟手，这个时候往往会陷入不断的重复，有很多人会觉得厌倦，有些人会觉得自己已经搞懂了一切，从而懒得去寻求进步
了。很多时候的跳槽是因为觉得失去兴趣了，觉得自己已经完成比赛了。其实这个时候比赛才刚刚开始，工作两三年的人，无论是客户关系，人脉，手下，和领导的关系，在
业内的名气……还都是远远不够的，但稍有成绩的人总是会自我感觉良好的，每个人都觉得自己跟客户关系铁得要命，觉得自己在业界的口碑好得很。其实可以肯定地说，一
定不是，这个时候，还是要拿出前两年的干劲来，稳扎稳打，积累才刚刚开始。
你足够了解你的客户吗？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么吗？你足够了解你的老板么？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么吗？你足够了解你的手下么？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么
吗？如果你不知道，你凭什么觉得自己已经积累够了？如果你都不了解，你怎么能让他们帮你的忙，做你想让他们做的事情？如果他们不做你想让他们做的事情，你又何来的
成功？
六、等待
这是个浮躁的人们最不喜欢的话题，本来不想说这个话题，因为会引起太多的争论，而我又无意和人争论这些，但是考虑到对于职业生涯的长久规划，这是一个躲避不
了的话题，还是决定写一写，不爱看的请离开吧。
并不是每次穿红灯都会被汽车撞，并不是每个罪犯都会被抓到，并不是每个错误都会被惩罚，并不是每个贪官都会被枪毙，并不是你的每一份努力都会得到回报，并不是
你的每一次坚持都会有人看到，并不是你每一点付出都能得到公正的回报，并不是你的每一个善意都能被理解……这个，就是世道。好吧，世道不够好，可是，你有推翻世道
的勇气么？如果没有，你有更好的解决办法么？有很多时候，人需要一点耐心，一点信心。每个人总会轮到几次不公平的事情，而通常，安心等待是最好的办法。
有很多时候我们需要等待，需要耐得住寂寞，等待属于你的那一刻。周润发等待过，刘德华等待过，周星驰等待过，王菲等待过，张艺谋也等待过……看到了他们如今
的功成名就的人，你可曾看到当初他们的等待和耐心？你可曾看到金马奖影帝在街边摆地摊？你可曾看到德云社一群人在剧场里给一位观众说相声？你可曾看到周星驰的角色
甚至连一句台词都没有？每一个成功者都有一段低沉苦闷的日子，我几乎能想象得出来他们借酒浇愁的样子，我也能想象得出他们为了生存而挣扎的窘迫。在他们一生最中灿
烂美好的日子里，他们渴望成功，但却两手空空，一如现在的你。没有人保证他们将来一定会成功，而他们的选择是耐住寂寞。如果当时的他们总念叨着“成功只是属于特权
阶级的”，你觉得他们今天会怎样？
曾经我也不明白有些人为什么并不比我有能力却要坐在我的头上，年纪比我大就一定要当我的领导么？为什么有些烂人不需要努力就能赚钱？为什么刚刚改革开放的时候
的人能那么容易赚钱，而轮到我们的时候，什么事情都要正规化了？有一天我突然想，我还在上学的时候他们就在社会里挣扎奋斗了，他们在社会上奋斗积累了十几二十年，
我们新人来了，他们有的我都想要，我这不是在要公平，我这是在要抢劫。因为我要得太急，因为我忍不住寂寞。二十多岁的男人，没有钱，没有事业，却有蓬勃的欲望。
人总是会遇到挫折的，人总是会有低潮的，人总是会有不被人理解的时候的，人总是有要低声下气的时候，这些时候恰恰是人生最关键的时候，因为大家都会碰到挫折，
而大多数人过不了这个门槛，你能过，你就成功了。在这样的时刻，我们需要耐心等待，满怀信心地去等待，相信，生活不会放弃你，机会总会来的。至少，你还年轻，你
没有坐牢，没有生治不了的病，没有欠还不起的债。比你不幸的人远远多过比你幸运的人，你还怕什么？路要一步步走，虽然到达终点的那一步很激动人心，但大部分的脚步
是平凡甚至枯燥的，但没有这些脚步，或者耐不住这些平凡枯燥，你终归是无法迎来最后的那些激动人心。
逆境，是上帝帮你淘汰竞争者的地方。要知道，你不好受，别人也不好受，你坚持不下去了，别人也一样，千万不要告诉别人你坚持不住了，那只能让别人获得坚持的信
心，让竞争者看着你微笑的面孔，失去信心，退出比赛。胜利属于那些有耐心的人。
在最绝望的时候，我会去看电影《The Pursuit of Happyness》《JerryMaguire》，让自己重新鼓起勇气，因为，无论什么时候，我们总还是有希望。
当所有的人离开的时候，我不失去希望，我不放弃。每天下班坐在车里，我喜欢哼着《隐形的翅膀》看着窗外，我知道，我在静静等待，等待属于我的那一刻。
原贴里伊吉网友的话我很喜欢，抄录在这里：
每个人都希望，自己是独一无二的特殊者
含着金匙出生、投胎到好家庭、工作安排到电力局拿1w月薪这样的小概率事件，当然最好轮到自己
红军长征两万五、打成右派反革命、胼手胝足牺牲尊严去奋斗，最好留给祖辈父辈和别人
自然，不是每个吃过苦的人都会得到回报
但是，任何时代，每一个既得利益者身后，都有他的祖辈父辈奋斗挣扎乃至流血付出生命的身影
羡慕别人有个好爸爸，没什么不可以
问题是，你的下一代，会有一个好爸爸吗？
至于问到为什么不能有同样的赢面概率？我只能问：为什么物种竞争中，人和猴子不能有同样的赢面概率？
物竞天择。猴子的灵魂不一定比你卑微，但你身后有几十万年的类人猿进化积淀。
七、入对行跟对人
在中国，大概很少有人是一份职业做到底的，虽然如此，第一份工作还是有些需要注意的地方，有两件事情格外重要，第一件是入行，第二件事情是跟人。第一份工作对
人最大的影响就是入行，现代的职业分工已经很细，我们基本上只能在一个行业里成为专家，不可能在多个行业里成为专家。很多案例也证明即使一个人在一个行业非常成
功，到另外一个行业，往往完全不是那么回事情，“你想改变世界，还是想卖一辈子汽水？”是乔布斯邀请百事可乐总裁约翰·斯考利加盟苹果时所说的话，结果这位在百事
非常成功的约翰，到了苹果表现平平。其实没有哪个行业特别好，也没有哪个行业特别差，或许有报道说哪个行业的平均薪资比较高，但是他们没说的是，那个行业的平均压
力也比较大。看上去很美的行业一旦进入才发现很多地方其实并不那么完美，只是外人看不见。
说实话，我自己都没有发大财，所以我的建议只是让人快乐工作的建议，不是如何发大财的建议，我们只讨论一般普通打工者的情况。我认为选择什么行业并没有太大关
系，看问题不能只看眼前。比如，从前年开始，国家开始整顿医疗行业，很多医药公司开不下去，很多医药行业的销售开始转行。其实医药行业的不景气是针对所有公司的，
并非针对一家公司，大家的日子都不好过，这个时候跑掉是非常不划算的，大多数正规的医药公司即使不做新生意撑个两三年总是能撑的，大多数医药销售靠工资撑个两三年
也是可以撑的，国家不可能永远捏着医药行业不放的，两三年以后光景总归还会好起来的，那个时候别人都跑了而你没跑，那时的日子应该会好过很多。有的时候觉得自己这
个行业不行了，问题是，再不行的行业，做得人少了也变成了好行业，当大家都觉得不好的时候，往往却是最好的时候。大家都觉得金融行业好，金融行业门槛高不说，有多
少人削尖脑袋要钻进去，竞争激励，进去以后还要时时提防，一个疏忽，就被后来的人给挤掉了，压力巨大，又如何谈得上快乐？也就未必是“好”工作了。
太阳能这个东西至今还不能进入实际应用的阶段，但是中国已经有7家和太阳能有关的公司在纽交所上市了，国美苏宁永乐其实是贸易型企业，也能上市，鲁泰纺织连续10
年利润增长超过50%，卖茶的一茶一座，卖衣服的海澜之家都能上市……其实选什么行业真的不重要，关键是怎么做。事情都是人做出来的，关键是人。
有一点是需要记住的，这个世界上，有史以来直到我们能够预见得到的未来，成功的人总是少数，有钱的人总是少数，大多数人是一般的，普通的，不太成功的。因此，
大多数人的做法和看法，往往都不是距离成功最近的做法和看法。因此大多数人说好的东西不见得好，大多数人说不好的东西不见得不好。大多数人都去炒股的时候说明跌只
是时间问题，大家越是热情高涨的时候，跌的日子越近。大多数人买房子的时候，房价不会涨，而房价涨的差不多的时候，大多数人才开始买房子。不会有这样一件事情让大
家都变成功，发了财，历史上不曾有过，将来也不会发生。有些东西即使一时运气好得到了，还是会在别的时候别的地方失去的。
年轻人在职业生涯的刚开始，尤其要注意的是，要做对的事情，不要让自己今后几十年的人生总是提心吊胆，更不值得为了一份工作赔上自己的青春年华。我的公司是个
不行贿的公司，以前很多人不理解，甚至自己的员工也不理解，不过如今，我们是同行中最大的企业，客户乐意和我们打交道，尤其是在国家打击腐败的时候，每个人都知道我们做生意不给钱的名声，都敢于和我们做生意。而勇于给钱的公司，不是倒了，就是
跑了，要不就是每天睡不好觉，人还是要看长远一点。很多时候，看起来最近的路，其实是最远的路，看起来最远的路，其实是最近的路。
跟对人是说，入行后要跟个好领导好老师，刚进社会的人做事情往往没有经验，需要有人言传身教。对于一个人的发展来说，一个好领导是非常重要的。所谓“好”的标
准，不是他让你少干活多拿钱，而是以下三个。
首先，好领导要有宽广的心胸，如果一个领导每天都会发脾气，那几乎可以肯定他不是个心胸宽广的人，能发脾气的时候却不发脾气的领导，多半是非常厉害的领导。中
国人当领导最大的毛病是容忍不了能力比自己强的人，所以常常可以看到的一个现象是，领导很有能力，手下一群庸才或者手下一群闲人。如果看到这样的环境，还是不要
去的好。
其次，领导要愿意从下属的角度来思考问题，这一点其实是从面试的时候就能发现的，如果这位领导总是从自己的角度来考虑问题，几乎不听你说什么，这就危险了。从
下属的角度来考虑问题并不代表同意下属的说法，但他必须了解下属的立场，下属为什么要这么想，然后他才有办法说服你，只关心自己怎么想的领导往往难以获得下属的信
服。
第三，领导敢于承担责任，如果出了问题就把责任往下推，有了功劳就往自己身上揽，这样的领导不跟也罢。选择领导，要选择关键时刻能抗得住的领导，能够为下属的
错误买单的领导，因为这是他作为领导的责任。
有可能，你碰不到好领导，因为，中国的领导往往是屁股决定脑袋的领导，因为他坐领导的位置，所以他的话就比较有道理，这是传统观念官本位的误区，可能有大量的
这种无知无能的领导，只是，这对于你其实是好事，如果将来有一天你要超过他，你希望他比较聪明还是比较笨？相对来说这样的领导其实不难搞定，只是你要把自己的身段
放下来而已。多认识一些人，多和比自己强的人打交道，同样能找到好的老师，不要和一群同样郁闷的人一起控诉社会，控诉老板，这帮不上你，只会让你更消极。和那些比
你强的人打交道，看他们是怎么想的，怎么做的，学习他们，然后跟更强的人打交道。
八、选择
我们每天做的最多的事情，其实是选择，因此在谈职业生涯的时候不得不提到这个话题。
我始终认为，在很大的范围内，我们究竟会成为一个什么样的人，决定权在我们自己，每天我们都在做各种各样的选择，我可以不去写这篇文章，去别人的帖子拍拍砖
头，也可以写下这些文字，帮助别人的同时也整理自己的思路，我可以多注意下格式让别人易于阅读，也可以写成一堆，我可以就这样发上来，也可以在发以前再看几遍，你
可以选择不刮胡子就去面试，也可以选择出门前照照镜子……每天，每一刻我们都在做这样那样的决定，我们可以漫不经心，也可以多花些心思，成千上万的小选择累计起
来，就决定了最终我们是个什么样的人。
从某种意义上来说我们的未来不是别人给的，是我们自己选择的，很多人会说我命苦啊，没得选择阿，如果你认为“去微软还是去IBM”“上清华还是上北大”“当销售副
总还是当厂长”这种才叫选择的话，的确你没有什么选择，大多数人都没有什么选择。但每天你都可以选择是否为客户服务更周到一些，是否对同事更耐心一些，是否把工作
做得更细致一些，是否把情况了解得更清楚一些，是否把不清楚的问题再弄清楚一些……你也可以选择在是否在痛苦中继续坚持，是否抛弃掉自己的那些负面的想法，是
否原谅一个人的错误，是否相信我在这里写下的这些话，是否不要再犯同样的错误……生活每天都在给你选择的机会，每天都在给你改变自己人生的机会，你可以选择赖在地
上撒泼打滚，也可以选择咬牙站起来。你永远都有选择。有些选择不是立杆见影的，需要累积，比如农民可以选择自己常常去浇地，也可以选择让老天去浇地，诚然你今天浇
水下去苗不见得今天马上就长出来，但常常浇水，大部分苗终究会长出来的，如果你不浇，收成一定很糟糕。
每天生活都在给你机会，他不会给你一叠现金也不会拱手送你个好工作，但实际上，他还是在给你机会。我的家庭是一个普通的家庭，没有任何了不起的社会关系，我
的父亲在大学毕业以后就被分配到了边疆，那个小县城只有一条马路，他们那一代人其实比我们更有理由抱怨，他们什么也没得到，年轻的时候文化大革命，书都没得读，支
援边疆插队落户，等到老了，却要给年轻人机会了。他有足够的理由象成千上万那样的青年一样坐在那里抱怨生不逢时，怨气冲天。然而在分配到边疆的十年之后，国家恢复
招研究生，他考回了原来的学校。研究生毕业，他被分配到了安徽一家小单位里，又是3年以后，国家第一届招收博士生，他又考回了原来的学校，成为中国第一代博士，那时
的他比现在的我年纪还大。生活并没有放弃他，他也没有放弃生活。10年的等待，他做了他自己的选择，他没有放弃，他没有破罐子破摔，所以时机到来的时候，他改变了自
己的人生。你最终会成为什么样的人，就决定在你的每个小小的选择之间。
你选择相信什么？你选择和谁交朋友？你选择做什么？你选择怎么做？……我们面临太多的选择，而这些选择当中，意识形态层面的选择又远比客观条件的选择来得重要
得多，比如选择做什么产品其实并不那么重要，而选择怎么做才重要。选择用什么人并不重要，而选择怎么带这些人才重要。大多数时候选择客观条件并不要紧，大多数关于
客观条件的选择并没有对错之分，要紧的是选择怎么做。一个大学生毕业了，他要去微软也好，他要卖猪肉也好，他要创业也好，他要做游戏代练也好，只要不犯法，不害人，都没有什么关系，要紧的是，选择了以后，怎么把事情做好。
除了这些，你还可以选择时间和环境，比如，你可以选择把这辈子最大的困难放在最有体力最有精力的时候，也可以走一步看一步，等到了40岁再说，只是到了40多岁，
那正是一辈子最脆弱的时候，上有老下有小，如果在那个时候碰上了职业危机，实在是一件很苦恼的事情。与其如此不如在20多岁30多岁的时候吃点苦，好让自己脆弱的时候
活得从容一些。你可以选择在温室里成长，也可以选择到野外磨砺，你可以选择在办公室吹冷气的工作，也可以选择40度的酷热下，去见你的客户，只是，这一切最终会累积
起来，引导你到你应得的未来。
我不敢说所有的事情你都有得选择，但是绝大部分事情你有选择，只是往往你不把这当作一种选择。认真对待每一次选择，才会有比较好的未来。
九、选择职业
职业的选择，总的来说，无非就是销售、市场、客服、物流、行政、人事、财务、技术、管理几个大类，有个有趣的现象就是，500强的CEO当中最多的是销售出身，第二
多的人是财务出身，这两者加起来大概超过95％。现代IT行业也有技术出身成为老板的，但实际上，后来他们还是从事了很多销售和市场的工作，并且表现出色，公司才获
得了成功，完全靠技术能力成为公司老板的，几乎没有。这是有原因的，因为销售就是一门跟人打交道的学问，而管理其实也是跟人打交道的学问，这两者之中有很多相通的
东西，他们的共同目标就是“让别人去做某件特定的事情。”而财务则是从数字的层面了解生意的本质，从宏观上看待生意的本质，对于一个生意是否挣钱，是否可以正常运
作有着最深刻的认识。
公司小的时候是销售主导公司，而公司大的时候是财务主导公司，销售的局限性在于只看人情不看数字，财务的局限性在于只看数字不看人情。公司初期，运营成本低，
有订单就活得下去，跟客户也没有什么谈判的条件，别人肯给生意做已经谢天谢地了，这个时候订单压倒一切，客户的要求压倒一切，所以当然要顾人情。公司大了以后，一
切都要规范化，免得因为不规范引起一些不必要的风险，同时运营成本也变高，必须提高利润率，把有限的资金放到最有产出的地方。对于上市公司来说，股东才不管你客户
是不是最近出国，最近是不是那个省又在搞严打，到了时候就要把业绩拿出来，拿不出来就抛股票，这个时候就是数字压倒一切。
前两天听到有人说一句话觉得很有道理，开始的时候我们想“能做什么？”，等到公司做大了有规模了，我们想“不能做什么。”很多人在工作中觉得为什么领导这么保
守，这也不行那也不行，错过很多机会。很多时候是因为，你还年轻，你想的是“能做什么”，而作为公司领导要考虑的方面很多，他比较关心“不能做什么”。
我并非鼓吹大家都去做销售或者财务，究竟选择什么样的职业，和你究竟要选择什么样的人生有关系，有些人就喜欢下班按时回家，看看书听听音乐，那也挺好，但就不
适合找个销售的工作了，否则会是折磨自己。有些人就喜欢出风头，喜欢成为一群人的中心，如果选择做财务工作，大概也干不久，因为一般老板不喜欢财务太积极，也不喜
欢财务话太多。先想好自己要过怎样的人生，再决定要找什么样的职业。有很多的不快乐，其实是源自不满足，而不满足，很多时候是源自于心不定，而心不定则是因为不清
楚究竟自己要什么，不清楚要什么的结果就是什么都想要，结果什么都没得到。
我想，我们还是因为生活而工作，不是因为工作而生活，生活是最要紧的，工作只是生活中的一部分。我总是觉得生活的各方方面都是相互影响的，如果生活本身一团乱
麻，工作也不会顺利。所以要有娱乐、要有社交、要锻炼身体，要有和睦的家庭……最要紧的，要开心，我的两个销售找我聊天，一肚子苦水，我问他们，2年以前，你什么都
没有，工资不高，没有客户关系，没有业绩，处于被开的边缘，现在的你比那时条件好了很多，为什么现在却更加不开心了？如果你做得越好越不开心，那你为什么还要工作？首先的首先，人还是要让自己高兴起来，让自己心态好起来，这种发自内心的改变
会让你更有耐心，更有信心，更有气质，更能包容……否则，看看镜子里的你，你满意么？
有人会说，你说得容易，我每天加班，不加班老板就会把我炒掉，每天累得要死，哪有时间娱乐、社交、锻炼？那是人们把目标设定太高的缘故，如果你还在动不动就会
被老板炒掉的边缘，那么你当然不能设立太高的目标，难道你还想每天去打高尔夫？你没时间去健身房锻炼身体，但是上下班的时候多走几步可以吧，有楼梯的时候走走楼梯
不走电梯可以吧？办公的间隙扭扭脖子拉拉肩膀做做俯卧撑可以吧？谁规定锻炼就一定要拿出每天2个小时去健身房？你没时间社交，每月参加郊游一次可以吧，周末去参加个
什么音乐班，绘画班之类的可以吧，去尝试认识一些同行，和他们找机会交流交流可以吧？开始的时候总是有些难的，但迈出这一步就会向良性循环的方向发展。而每天工作
得很苦闷，剩下的时间用来咀嚼苦闷，只会陷入恶性循环，让生活更加糟糕。
虽然离开惠普仅有十五天，但感觉上惠普已经离我很远。我的心思更多放在规划自己第二阶段的人生，这并非代表我对惠普没有任何眷恋，主要还是想以此驱动自己往前
走。
万科王石登珠穆朗玛峰的体验给我很多启发，虽然在出发时携带大量的物资，但是登顶的过程中，必须不断减轻负荷，最终只有一个氧气瓶和他登上峰顶。登山如此，漫
长的人生又何尝不是。
我宣布退休后，接到同事朋友同学的祝贺。大部分人都认为我能够在这样的职位上及年龄选择退休，是一种勇气，也是一种福气。
还有一部分人怀疑我只是借此机会换个工作，当然还有一些人说我在HP做不下去了，趁此机会离开。
我多年来已经习惯别人对我的说三道四，但对于好友，我还是挺关心大家是否真正理解我的想法，这也是写这篇文章的目的。
由于受我父亲早逝的影响，我很早就下定决心，要在有生之年实现自己的愿望，我不要像我父亲一样，为家庭生活忙碌一辈子，临终前感伤，懊恼自己有很多没有实现的
理想。
一本杂志的文章提到我们在生前就应该思考自己的墓志铭，因为那代表你自己对完美人生的定义，我们应该尽可能在有生之年去实现它。
我希望我的墓志铭上除了与家人及好友有关的内容外，是这样写着：
1.这个人曾经服务于一家全球最大的IT公司（HP）25年，和她一起经历过数次重大的变革，看着她从以电子仪表为主要的业务变革成全球最大的IT公司。
2.这个人曾经在全球发展最快的国家（中国）工作16年，并担任HP中国区总裁7年，见证及经历过中国改革开放的关键最新突破阶段，与中国一起成长。
3.这个人热爱飞行，曾经是一个有执照的飞行员，累积飞行时数超过X小时，曾经在X个机场起降过。
4.这个人曾经获得管理硕士学位，在领导管理上特别关注中国企业的组织行为及绩效，并且在这个领域上获得中国企业界的认可。
我费时25年才总结1和2两项成果，我不知还要费时多久才能达成3和4的愿望，特别是第4个愿望需要经历学术的训练，才能将我的经验总结成知识。
否则我的经验将无法有效影响及传授他人。因此重新进入学校学习，拿一个管理学位是有必要的，更何况这是我一个非常重要的愿望。
另一方面，我25年的时间都花在运营(operation)的领域，兢兢业业的做好职业人士的工作，它是一份好工作，特别是在HP，这份工作也帮助我建立财务的基础，支持家庭
的发展。
但是我不想终其一生，都陷入在运营的领域，我想象企业家一样，有机会靠一些点子(ideas)赚钱，虽然风险很高，但是值得一试，即使失败，也不枉走一回，这也是第4
个愿望其中的一部份。
Carly Fiorina曾经对我说过“这个世界上有好想法的人很多，但有能力去实现的人很少”，2007年5月21日在北大演讲时，有人问起那些书对我影响较大，我想对我人生观
有影响的其中一本书叫“TriggerPoint”，它的主要观点是：人生最需要的不是规划，而是在适当的时机掌握机会，采取行动。
我这些愿望在我心中已经酝酿一段很长的时间，开始的时候，也许一年想个一两次，过了也就忘掉，但逐渐的，这个心中的声音，愈来愈大，出现的频率也愈来愈高，
当它几乎每一个星期都会来与我对话时，我知道时机已经成熟。
但和任何人一样，要丢掉自己现在所拥有的，所熟悉的环境及稳定的收入，转到一条自己未曾经历过，存在未知风险的道路，需要绝大的勇气，家人的支持和好友的鼓励。有舍才有得，真是知易行难，我很高兴自己终于跨出了第一步。
我要感谢HP的EER提前退休优惠政策，它是其中一个关键的TriggerPoints,另一个关键因素是在去年五六月发生的事。
当时我家老大从大学毕业，老二从高中毕业，在他们继续工作及求学前，这是一个黄金时段，让我们全家可以相聚一段较长的时间，我为此很早就计划休一个长假，带着
他们到各地游玩。
但这个计划因为工作上一件重要的事情（Mark Hurd访华）不得不取消。这个事件刺激了我必须严肃的去对待那心中的声音，我会不会继续不断的错失很多关键的机会?
我已经年过50，我会不会走向和我父亲一样的道路？人事部老总Charles跟我说，很
多人在所有对他有利的星星都排成一列时，还是错失时机。
我知道原因，因为割舍及改变对人是多么的困难，我相信大部分的人都有自己人生的理想，但我也相信很多人最终只是把这些理想当成是幻想，然后不断的为自己寻找不
能实现的藉口，南非前总统曼德拉曾经说过，“与改变世界相比，改变自己更困难”，真是一针见血。
什么是快乐及有意义的人生？我相信每一个人的定义都不一样，对我来说，能实现我墓志铭上的内容就是我的定义。
在中国惠普总裁的位置上固然可以吸引很多的关注及眼球，但是我太太及较亲近的好友，都知道那不是我追求的，那只是为扮演好这个角色必须尽力做好的地方。
做一个没有名片的人士，虽然只有十多天的时间，但我发现我的脑袋里已经空出很多空间及能量，让我可以静心的为我ChapterII的新生活做细致的调研及规划。
我预订以两年的时间来完成转轨的准备工作，并且花多点时间与家人共处。这两年的时间我希望拿到飞行执照，拿到管理有关的硕士学位，提升英文的水平，建立新的网
络，多认识不同行业的人，保持与大陆的联系。希望两年后，我可以顺利回到大陆去实现我第四个愿望。
毫不意外，在生活上，我发现很多需要调整的地方。
二十多年来，我生活的步调及节奏，几乎完全被公司及工作所左右，不断涌出的deadline及任务驱动我每天的安排，一旦离开这样的环境，第一个需要调整的就是要依
靠自己的自律及意志力来驱动每天的活动，睡觉睡到自然醒的态度绝对不正确，放松自己，不给事情设定目标及时间表，或者对错失时间目标无所谓，也不正确，没有年度，
季度，月及周计划也不正确。
担任高层经理多年，已经养成交待事情的习惯，自己的时间主要花在思考，决策及追踪项目的进展情况，更多是依靠一个庞大的团队来执行具体的事项及秘书来处理很多
协调及繁琐的事情。
到美国后，很多事情需要打800号电话联系，但这些电话很忙，常让你在waitingline上等待很长的时间，当我在等待时，我可以体会以前秘书工作辛苦的地方，
但同时也提醒我自己，在这个阶段要改变态度，培养更大的耐性及自己动手做的能力。
生活的内容也要做出很大的调整，多出时间锻炼身体，多出时间关注家人，多出时间关注朋友，多出时间体验不同的休闲活动及飞行，一步步的，希望生活逐步调整到我
所期望的轨道上，期待这两年的生活既充实又充满乐趣及意义。
第一个快乐的体验就是准备及参加大儿子的订婚礼，那种全心投入，不需担忧工作数字的感觉真好。同时我也租好了公寓，买好了家具及车子，陪家人在周末的时候到
Reno及Lake Tahoe玩了一趟，LakeTahoe我去了多次，但这次的体验有所不同，我从心里欣赏到它的美丽。
但同时我也在加紧调研的工作，为申请大学及飞行学校做准备，这段时间也和在硅谷的朋友及一些风险投资公司见面，了解不同的产业。
我的人生观是“完美的演出来自充分的准备”，“勇于改变自己，适应不断变化的环境，机会将不断出现”，“快乐及有意义的人生来自于实现自己心中的愿望，而非外
在的掌声”。
我离开时，有两位好朋友送给我两个不同的祝语，Baron的是“多年功过化烟尘”，杨华的是“莫春者，风乎舞雩，咏而归”，它们分别代表了我离开惠普及走向未来的心
情。
我总结人生有三个阶段，一个阶段是为现实找一份工作，一个阶段是为现实，但可以选择一份自己愿意投入的工作，一个阶段是为理想去做一些事情。
我珍惜我的福气，感激HP及同事、好朋友给我的支持，鼓励及协助，这篇文字化我心声的文章与好友分享
本文由倍可亲网友[ belayashma ] 于 2008-12-27 07:48 上贴
原文网址： http://club.backchina.com/main/viewthread.php?tid=734829
我有个有趣的观察，外企公司多的是25-35岁的白领，40岁以上的员工很少，二三十岁的外企员工是意气风发的，但外企公司40岁附近的经理人是很尴尬的。我见过的40岁
附近的外企经理人大多在一直跳槽，最后大多跳到民企，比方说，唐骏。外企员工的成功很大程度上是公司的成功，并非个人的成功，西门子的确比国美大，但并不代表西门
子中国经理比国美的老板强，甚至可以说差得很远。而进外企的人往往并不能很早理解这一点，把自己的成功90％归功于自己的能力，实际上，外企公司随便换个中国区总经
理并不会给业绩带来什么了不起的影响。好了问题来了，当这些经理人40多岁了，他们的薪资要求变得很高，而他们的才能其实又不是那么出众，作为外企公司的老板，你会
怎么选择？有的是只要不高薪水的，要出位的精明强干精力冲沛的年轻人，有的是，为什么还要用你？
从上面这个例子，其实可以看到我们的工作轨迹，二三十岁的时候，生活的压力还比较小，身体还比较好，上面的父母身体还好，下面又没有孩子，不用还房贷，也没有
孩子要上大学，当个外企小白领还是很光鲜的，挣得不多也够花了。但是人终归要结婚生子，终归会老，到了40岁，父母老了，要看病要吃药，要有人看护，自己要还房贷，
要过基本体面的生活，要养小孩……那个时候需要挣多少钱才够花才重要。所以，看待工作，眼光要放远一点，一时的谁高谁低并不能说明什么。
从这个角度上来说，我不太赞成过于关注第一份工作的薪水，更没有必要攀比第一份工作的薪水，这在刚刚出校园的学生中间是很常见的。正常人大概要工作35年，这好
比是一场马拉松比赛，和真正的马拉松比赛不同的是，这次比赛没有职业选手，每个人都只有一次机会。要知到，有很多人甚至坚持不到终点，大多数人最后是走到终点的，
只有少数人是跑过终点的，因此在刚开始的时候，去抢领先的位置并没有太大的意义。刚进社会的时候如果进500强公司，大概能拿到3k-6k/月的工资，有些特别技术的人才可
能可以到8k/月，可问题是，5年以后拿多少？估计5k-10k了不起了。起点虽然高，但增幅有限，而且，后面的年轻人追赶的压力越来越大。
我前两天问我的一个销售，你会的这些东西一个新人2年就都学会了，但新人所要求的薪水却只是你的一半，到时候，你怎么办？
职业生涯就像一场体育比赛，有初赛、复赛、决赛。初赛的时候大家都刚刚进社会，大多数都是实力一般的人，这时候努力一点认真一点很快就能让人脱颖而出，于是
有的人二十多岁做了经理，有的人迟些也终于赢得了初赛，三十多岁成了经理。然后是复赛，能参加复赛的都是赢得初赛的，每个人都有些能耐，在聪明才智上都不成问题，
这个时候再想要胜出就不那么容易了，单靠一点点努力和认真还不够，要有很强的坚忍精神，要懂得靠团队的力量，要懂得收服人心，要有长远的眼光……
看上去赢得复赛并不容易，但，还不是那么难。因为这个世界的规律就是给人一点成功的同时让人骄傲自满，刚刚赢得初赛的人往往不知道自己赢得的仅仅是初赛，有了
一点小小的成绩大多数人都会骄傲自满起来，认为自己已经懂得了全部，不需要再努力再学习了，他们会认为之所以不能再进一步已经不是自己的原因了。虽然他们仍然不好
对付，但是他们没有耐性，没有容人的度量，更没有清晰长远的目光。就像一只愤怒的斗牛，虽然猛烈，最终是会败的，而赢得复赛的人则象斗牛士一样，不急不躁，跟随着
自己的节拍，慢慢耗尽对手的耐心和体力。赢得了复赛以后，大约已经是一位很了不起的职业经理人了，当上了中小公司的总经理，大公司的副总经理，主管着每年几千万乃
至几亿的生意。
最终的决赛来了，说实话我自己都还没有赢得决赛，因此对于决赛的决胜因素也只能凭自己的猜测而已，这个时候的输赢或许就像武侠小说里写得那样，大家都是高手，
只能等待对方犯错了，要想轻易击败对手是不可能的，除了使上浑身解数，还需要一点运气和时间。世界的规律依然发挥着作用，赢得复赛的人已经不只是骄傲自满了，他们
往往刚愎自用，听不进去别人的话，有些人的脾气变得暴躁，心情变得浮躁，身体变得糟糕，他们最大的敌人就是他们自己，在决赛中要做的只是不被自己击败，等着别人被
自己击败。这和体育比赛是一样的，最后高手之间的比赛，就看谁失误少谁就赢得了决赛。
二、 根源
你工作快乐么？你的工作好么？
有没有觉得干了一段时间以后工作很不开心？有没有觉得自己入错了行？有没有觉得自己没有得到应有的待遇？有没有觉得工作像一团乱麻每天上班都是一种痛苦？有没
有很想换个工作？有没有觉得其实现在的公司并没有当初想象得那么好？有没有觉得这份工作是当初因为生存压力而找的，实在不适合自己？你从工作中得到你想要得到的了
么？你每天开心么？
天涯上愤怒的人很多，你有没有想过，你为什么不快乐？你为什么愤怒？
其实，你不快乐的根源，是因为你不知道要什么！你不知道要什么，所以你不知道去追求什么，你不知道追求什么，所以你什么也得不到。
我总觉得，职业生涯首先要关注的是自己，自己想要什么？大多数人大概没想过这个问题，唯一的想法只是——我想要一份工作，我想要一份不错的薪水，我知道所有人
对于薪水的渴望，可是，你想每隔几年重来一次找工作的过程么？你想每年都在这种对于工作和薪水的焦急不安中度过么？不想的话，就好好想清楚。饮鸩止渴，不能因为口
渴就拼命喝毒药。越是焦急，越是觉得自己需要一份工作，越饥不择食，越想不清楚，越容易失败，你的经历越来越差，下一份工作的人看着你的简历就皱眉头。于是你越喝
越渴，越渴越喝，陷入恶性循环。最终只能哀叹世事不公或者生不逢时，只能到天涯上来发泄一把，在失败者的共鸣当中寻求一点心理平衡罢了。大多数人都有生存压力，我
也是，有生存压力就会有很多焦虑，积极的人会从焦虑中得到动力，而消极的人则会因为焦虑而迷失方向。所有人都必须在压力下做出选择，这就是世道，你喜欢也罢不喜欢
也罢。
一般我们处理的事情分为重要的事情和紧急的事情，如果不做重要的事情就会常常去做紧急的事情。比如锻炼身体保持健康是重要的事情，而看病则是紧急的事情。如果
不锻炼身体保持健康，就会常常为了病痛烦恼。又比如防火是重要的事情，而救火是紧急的事情，如果不注意防火，就要常常救火。找工作也是如此，想好自己究竟要什么是
重要的事情，找工作是紧急的事情，如果不想好，就会常常要找工作。往往紧急的事情给人的压力比较大，迫使人们去赶紧做，相对来说重要的事情反而没有那么大的压力，
大多数人做事情都是以压力为导向的，压力之下，总觉得非要先做紧急的事情，结果就是永远到处救火，永远没有停歇的时候。（很多人的工作也像是救火队一样忙碌痛苦，
也是因为工作中没有做好重要的事情。）那些说自己活在水深火热为了生存顾不上那么多的朋友，今天找工作困难是当初你们没有做重要的事情，是结果不是原因。如果今天
你们还是因为急于要找一份工作而不去思考，那么或许将来要继续承受痛苦找工作的结果。
我始终觉得我要说的话题，沉重了点，需要很多思考，远比唐笑打武警的话题来的枯燥乏味，但是，天下没有轻松的成功，成功，要付代价。请先忘记一切的生存压力，
想想这辈子你最想要的是什么？所以，最要紧的事情，先想好自己想要什么。
三、什么是好工作
当初微软有个唐骏，很多大学里的年轻人觉得这才是他们向往的职业生涯，我在清华bbs里发的帖子被这些学子们所不屑，那个时候学生们只想出国或者去外企，不过如今
看来，我还是对的，唐骏去了盛大，陈天桥创立的盛大，一家民营公司。一个高学历的海归在500强的公司里拿高薪水，这大约是很多年轻人的梦想，问题是，每年毕业的大学
生都在做这个梦，好的职位却只有500个。
人都是要面子的，也是喜欢攀比的，即使在工作上也喜欢攀比，不管那是不是自己想要的。大家认为外企公司很好，可是好在哪里呢？好吧，他们在比较好的写字楼，这
是你想要的么？他们出差住比较好的酒店，这是你想要的么？别人会羡慕一份外企公司的工作，这是你想要的么？那一切都是给别人看的，你干吗要活得那么辛苦给别人看？
另一方面，他们薪水福利一般，并没有特别了不起，他们的晋升机会比较少，很难做到很高阶的主管，他们虽然厌恶常常加班，却不敢不加班，因为“你不干有得是人干”，
大部分情况下会找个台湾人香港人新加坡人来管你，而这些人又往往有些莫名其妙的优越感。你想清楚了么？500强一定好么？找工作究竟是考虑你想要什么，还是考虑别人想
看什么？
我的大学同学们大多数都到美国了，甚至毕业这么多年了，还有人最近到国外去了。出国真的有那么好么？我的大学同学们，大多数还是在博士、博士后、访问学者地
挣扎着，至今只有一个正经在一个美国大学里拿到个正式的教职。国内的教授很难当么？我有几个表亲也去了国外了，他们的父母独自在国内，没有人照顾，有好几次人在
家里昏倒都没人知道，出国，真的这么光彩么？就像有人说的“很多事情就像看A片，看的人觉得很爽，做的人未必。”
人总想找到那个最好的，可是，什么是最好的？你觉得是最好的那个，是因为你的确了解，还是因为别人说他是最好的？即使他对于别人是最好的，对于你也一定是最好的么？
对于自己想要什么，自己要最清楚，别人的意见并不是那么重要。很多人总是常常被别人的意见所影响，亲戚的意见，朋友的意见，同事的意见……问题是，你究竟是要
过谁的一生？人的一生不是父母一生的续集，也不是儿女一生的前传，更不是朋友一生的外篇，只有你自己对自己的一生负责，别人无法也负不起这个责任。自己做的决定，
至少到最后，自己没什么可后悔。对于大多数正常智力的人来说，所做的决定没有大的对错，无论怎么样的选择，都是可以尝试的。比如你没有考自己上的那个学校，没有入
现在这个行业，这辈子就过不下去了？就会很失败？不见得。
我想，好工作，应该是适合你的工作，具体点说，应该是能给你带来你想要的东西的工作，你或许应该以此来衡量你的工作究竟好不好，而不是拿公司的大小，规模，外
企还是国企，是不是有名，是不是上市公司来衡量。小公司，未必不是好公司，赚钱多的工作，也未必是好工作。你还是要先弄清楚你想要什么，如果你不清楚你想要什么，
你就永远也不会找到好工作，因为你永远只看到你得不到的东西，你得到的，都是你不想要的。
可能，最好的，已经在你的身边，只是，你还没有学会珍惜。人们总是盯着得不到的东西，而忽视了那些已经得到的东西。
四、普通人
我发现中国人的励志和国外的励志存在非常大的不同，中国的励志比较鼓励人立下大志愿，卧薪尝胆，有朝一日成富成贵。而国外的励志比较鼓励人勇敢面对现实生活，
面对普通人的困境，虽然结果也是成富成贵，但起点不一样，相对来说，我觉得后者在操作上更现实，而前者则需要用999个失败者来堆砌一个成功者的故事。
我们都是普通人，普通人的意思就是，概率这件事是很准的。因此，我们不会买彩票中500万，我们不会成为比尔盖茨或者李嘉诚，我们不会坐飞机掉下来，我们当中很少
的人会创业成功，我们之中有30％的人会离婚，我们之中大部分人会活过65岁……
所以请你在想自己要什么的时候，要得“现实”一点，你说我想要做李嘉诚，抱歉，我帮不上你。成为比尔盖茨或者李嘉诚这种人，是靠命的，看我写的这篇文章绝对
不会让你成为他们，即使你成为了他们，也绝对不是我这篇文章的功劳。“王侯将相宁有种乎”但真正当皇帝的只有一个人，王侯将相，人也不多。目标定得高些对于喜欢挑
战的人来说有好处，但对于大多数普通人来说，反而比较容易灰心沮丧，很容易就放弃了。
回过头来说，李嘉诚比你有钱大致50万倍，他比你更快乐么？或许。有没有比你快乐50万倍，一定没有。他比你最多也就快乐一两倍，甚至有可能还不如你快乐。寻找自
己想要的东西不是和别人比赛，比谁要得更多更高，比谁的目标更远大。虽然成为李嘉诚这个目标很宏大，但你并不见得会从这个目标以及追求目标的过程当中获得快乐，而
且基本上你也做不到。你必须听听你内心的声音，寻找真正能够使你获得快乐的东西，那才是你想要的东西。
你想要的东西，或者我们把它称之为目标，目标其实并没有高低之分，你不需要因为自己的目标没有别人远大而不好意思，达到自己的目标其实就是成功，成功有大有
小，快乐却是一样的。我们追逐成功，其实追逐的是成功带来的快乐，而非成功本身。职业生涯的道路上，我们常常会被攀比的心态蒙住眼睛，忘记了追求的究竟是什么，忘
记了是什么能使我们更快乐。
社会上一夜暴富的新闻很多，这些消息，总会在我们的心里面掀起很多涟漪，涟漪多了就变成惊涛骇浪，心里的惊涛骇浪除了打翻承载你目标的小船，并不会使得你也一
夜暴富。“只见贼吃肉，不见贼挨揍。”我们这些普通人既没有当贼的勇气，又缺乏当贼的狠辣绝决，虽然羡慕吃肉，却更害怕挨揍，偶尔看到几个没挨揍的贼就按奈不住，
或者心思活动，或者大感不公，真要叫去做贼，却也不敢。
我还是过普通人的日子，要普通人的快乐，至少，晚上睡得着觉。
五、跳槽与积累
首先要说明，工作是一件需要理智的事情，所以不要在工作上耍个性，天涯上或许会有人觉得你很有个性而叫好，煤气公司电话公司不会因为觉得你很有个性而免了你的
帐单。当你很帅地炒掉了你的老板，当你很酷地挖苦了一番招聘的HR，账单还是要照付，只是你赚钱的时间更少了，除了你自己，没人受损失。
我并不反对跳槽，但跳槽决不是解决问题的办法，而且频繁跳槽的后果是让人觉得没有忠诚度可言，而且不能安心工作。现在很多人从网上找工作，很多找工作的网站常
常给人出些馊主意，要知道他们是盈利性企业，当然要从自身盈利的角度来考虑，大家越是频繁跳槽频繁找工作他们越是生意兴隆，所以鼓动人们跳槽是他们的工作。所以他
们会常常告诉你，你拿的薪水少了，你享受的福利待遇差了，又是“薪情快报”又是“赞叹自由奔放的灵魂”。至于是否会因此让你不能安心，你跳了槽是否解决问题，是
否更加开心，那个，他们管不着。
要跳槽肯定是有问题，一般来说问题发生了，躲是躲不开的，很多人跳槽是因为这样或者那样的不开心，如果这种不开心，在现在这个公司不能解决，那么在下一个公司
多半也解决不掉。你必须相信，90%的情况下，你所在的公司并没有那么烂，你认为不错的公司也没有那么好。就像围城里说的，“城里的人拼命想冲出来，而城外的人拼命想
冲进去。”每个公司都有每个公司的问题，没有问题的公司是不存在的。换个环境你都不知道会碰到什么问题，与其如此，不如就在当下把问题解决掉。很多问题当你真的想
要去解决的时候，或许并没有那么难。有的时候你觉得问题无法解决，事实上，那只是“你觉得”。
人生的曲线应该是曲折向上的，偶尔会遇到低谷但大趋势总归是曲折向上的，而不是象脉冲波一样每每回到起点，我见过不少面试者，30多岁了，四五份工作经历，每次
多则3年，少则1年，30多岁的时候回到起点从一个初级职位开始干起，拿基本初级的薪水，和20多岁的年轻人一起竞争，不觉得有点辛苦么？这种日子好过么？
我非常不赞成在一个行业超过3年以后换行业，基本上，35岁以前我们的生存资本靠打拼，35岁以生存的资本靠的就是积累，这种积累包括人际关系，经验，人脉，口
碑……如果常常更换行业，代表几年的积累付之东流，一切从头开始，如果换了两次行业，35岁的时候大概只有5年以下的积累，而一个没有换过行业的人至少有了10年的积
累，谁会占优势？工作到2-3年的时候，很多人觉得工作不顺利，好像到了一个瓶颈，心情烦闷，就想辞职，乃至换一个行业，觉得这样所有一切烦恼都可以抛开，会好很多。
其实这样做只是让你从头开始，到了时候还是会发生和原来行业一样的困难，熬过去就向上跨了一大步，要知道每个人都会经历这个过程，每个人的职业生涯中都会碰到几个
瓶颈，你熬过去了而别人没有熬过去你就领先了。跑长跑的人会知道，开始的时候很轻松，但是很快会有第一次的难受，但过了这一段又能跑很长一段，接下来会碰到第二次
的难受，坚持过了以后又能跑一段，如此往复，难受一次比一次厉害，直到坚持不下去了。大多数人第一次就坚持不了了，一些人能坚持到第二次，第三次虽然大家都坚持不
住了，可是跑到这里的人也没几个了，这点资本足够你安稳活这一辈子了。
一份工作到两三年的时候，大部分人都会变成熟手，这个时候往往会陷入不断的重复，有很多人会觉得厌倦，有些人会觉得自己已经搞懂了一切，从而懒得去寻求进步
了。很多时候的跳槽是因为觉得失去兴趣了，觉得自己已经完成比赛了。其实这个时候比赛才刚刚开始，工作两三年的人，无论是客户关系，人脉，手下，和领导的关系，在
业内的名气……还都是远远不够的，但稍有成绩的人总是会自我感觉良好的，每个人都觉得自己跟客户关系铁得要命，觉得自己在业界的口碑好得很。其实可以肯定地说，一
定不是，这个时候，还是要拿出前两年的干劲来，稳扎稳打，积累才刚刚开始。
你足够了解你的客户吗？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么吗？你足够了解你的老板么？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么吗？你足够了解你的手下么？你知道他最大的烦恼是什么
吗？如果你不知道，你凭什么觉得自己已经积累够了？如果你都不了解，你怎么能让他们帮你的忙，做你想让他们做的事情？如果他们不做你想让他们做的事情，你又何来的
成功？
六、等待
这是个浮躁的人们最不喜欢的话题，本来不想说这个话题，因为会引起太多的争论，而我又无意和人争论这些，但是考虑到对于职业生涯的长久规划，这是一个躲避不
了的话题，还是决定写一写，不爱看的请离开吧。
并不是每次穿红灯都会被汽车撞，并不是每个罪犯都会被抓到，并不是每个错误都会被惩罚，并不是每个贪官都会被枪毙，并不是你的每一份努力都会得到回报，并不是
你的每一次坚持都会有人看到，并不是你每一点付出都能得到公正的回报，并不是你的每一个善意都能被理解……这个，就是世道。好吧，世道不够好，可是，你有推翻世道
的勇气么？如果没有，你有更好的解决办法么？有很多时候，人需要一点耐心，一点信心。每个人总会轮到几次不公平的事情，而通常，安心等待是最好的办法。
有很多时候我们需要等待，需要耐得住寂寞，等待属于你的那一刻。周润发等待过，刘德华等待过，周星驰等待过，王菲等待过，张艺谋也等待过……看到了他们如今
的功成名就的人，你可曾看到当初他们的等待和耐心？你可曾看到金马奖影帝在街边摆地摊？你可曾看到德云社一群人在剧场里给一位观众说相声？你可曾看到周星驰的角色
甚至连一句台词都没有？每一个成功者都有一段低沉苦闷的日子，我几乎能想象得出来他们借酒浇愁的样子，我也能想象得出他们为了生存而挣扎的窘迫。在他们一生最中灿
烂美好的日子里，他们渴望成功，但却两手空空，一如现在的你。没有人保证他们将来一定会成功，而他们的选择是耐住寂寞。如果当时的他们总念叨着“成功只是属于特权
阶级的”，你觉得他们今天会怎样？
曾经我也不明白有些人为什么并不比我有能力却要坐在我的头上，年纪比我大就一定要当我的领导么？为什么有些烂人不需要努力就能赚钱？为什么刚刚改革开放的时候
的人能那么容易赚钱，而轮到我们的时候，什么事情都要正规化了？有一天我突然想，我还在上学的时候他们就在社会里挣扎奋斗了，他们在社会上奋斗积累了十几二十年，
我们新人来了，他们有的我都想要，我这不是在要公平，我这是在要抢劫。因为我要得太急，因为我忍不住寂寞。二十多岁的男人，没有钱，没有事业，却有蓬勃的欲望。
人总是会遇到挫折的，人总是会有低潮的，人总是会有不被人理解的时候的，人总是有要低声下气的时候，这些时候恰恰是人生最关键的时候，因为大家都会碰到挫折，
而大多数人过不了这个门槛，你能过，你就成功了。在这样的时刻，我们需要耐心等待，满怀信心地去等待，相信，生活不会放弃你，机会总会来的。至少，你还年轻，你
没有坐牢，没有生治不了的病，没有欠还不起的债。比你不幸的人远远多过比你幸运的人，你还怕什么？路要一步步走，虽然到达终点的那一步很激动人心，但大部分的脚步
是平凡甚至枯燥的，但没有这些脚步，或者耐不住这些平凡枯燥，你终归是无法迎来最后的那些激动人心。
逆境，是上帝帮你淘汰竞争者的地方。要知道，你不好受，别人也不好受，你坚持不下去了，别人也一样，千万不要告诉别人你坚持不住了，那只能让别人获得坚持的信
心，让竞争者看着你微笑的面孔，失去信心，退出比赛。胜利属于那些有耐心的人。
在最绝望的时候，我会去看电影《The Pursuit of Happyness》《JerryMaguire》，让自己重新鼓起勇气，因为，无论什么时候，我们总还是有希望。
当所有的人离开的时候，我不失去希望，我不放弃。每天下班坐在车里，我喜欢哼着《隐形的翅膀》看着窗外，我知道，我在静静等待，等待属于我的那一刻。
原贴里伊吉网友的话我很喜欢，抄录在这里：
每个人都希望，自己是独一无二的特殊者
含着金匙出生、投胎到好家庭、工作安排到电力局拿1w月薪这样的小概率事件，当然最好轮到自己
红军长征两万五、打成右派反革命、胼手胝足牺牲尊严去奋斗，最好留给祖辈父辈和别人
自然，不是每个吃过苦的人都会得到回报
但是，任何时代，每一个既得利益者身后，都有他的祖辈父辈奋斗挣扎乃至流血付出生命的身影
羡慕别人有个好爸爸，没什么不可以
问题是，你的下一代，会有一个好爸爸吗？
至于问到为什么不能有同样的赢面概率？我只能问：为什么物种竞争中，人和猴子不能有同样的赢面概率？
物竞天择。猴子的灵魂不一定比你卑微，但你身后有几十万年的类人猿进化积淀。
七、入对行跟对人
在中国，大概很少有人是一份职业做到底的，虽然如此，第一份工作还是有些需要注意的地方，有两件事情格外重要，第一件是入行，第二件事情是跟人。第一份工作对
人最大的影响就是入行，现代的职业分工已经很细，我们基本上只能在一个行业里成为专家，不可能在多个行业里成为专家。很多案例也证明即使一个人在一个行业非常成
功，到另外一个行业，往往完全不是那么回事情，“你想改变世界，还是想卖一辈子汽水？”是乔布斯邀请百事可乐总裁约翰·斯考利加盟苹果时所说的话，结果这位在百事
非常成功的约翰，到了苹果表现平平。其实没有哪个行业特别好，也没有哪个行业特别差，或许有报道说哪个行业的平均薪资比较高，但是他们没说的是，那个行业的平均压
力也比较大。看上去很美的行业一旦进入才发现很多地方其实并不那么完美，只是外人看不见。
说实话，我自己都没有发大财，所以我的建议只是让人快乐工作的建议，不是如何发大财的建议，我们只讨论一般普通打工者的情况。我认为选择什么行业并没有太大关
系，看问题不能只看眼前。比如，从前年开始，国家开始整顿医疗行业，很多医药公司开不下去，很多医药行业的销售开始转行。其实医药行业的不景气是针对所有公司的，
并非针对一家公司，大家的日子都不好过，这个时候跑掉是非常不划算的，大多数正规的医药公司即使不做新生意撑个两三年总是能撑的，大多数医药销售靠工资撑个两三年
也是可以撑的，国家不可能永远捏着医药行业不放的，两三年以后光景总归还会好起来的，那个时候别人都跑了而你没跑，那时的日子应该会好过很多。有的时候觉得自己这
个行业不行了，问题是，再不行的行业，做得人少了也变成了好行业，当大家都觉得不好的时候，往往却是最好的时候。大家都觉得金融行业好，金融行业门槛高不说，有多
少人削尖脑袋要钻进去，竞争激励，进去以后还要时时提防，一个疏忽，就被后来的人给挤掉了，压力巨大，又如何谈得上快乐？也就未必是“好”工作了。
太阳能这个东西至今还不能进入实际应用的阶段，但是中国已经有7家和太阳能有关的公司在纽交所上市了，国美苏宁永乐其实是贸易型企业，也能上市，鲁泰纺织连续10
年利润增长超过50%，卖茶的一茶一座，卖衣服的海澜之家都能上市……其实选什么行业真的不重要，关键是怎么做。事情都是人做出来的，关键是人。
有一点是需要记住的，这个世界上，有史以来直到我们能够预见得到的未来，成功的人总是少数，有钱的人总是少数，大多数人是一般的，普通的，不太成功的。因此，
大多数人的做法和看法，往往都不是距离成功最近的做法和看法。因此大多数人说好的东西不见得好，大多数人说不好的东西不见得不好。大多数人都去炒股的时候说明跌只
是时间问题，大家越是热情高涨的时候，跌的日子越近。大多数人买房子的时候，房价不会涨，而房价涨的差不多的时候，大多数人才开始买房子。不会有这样一件事情让大
家都变成功，发了财，历史上不曾有过，将来也不会发生。有些东西即使一时运气好得到了，还是会在别的时候别的地方失去的。
年轻人在职业生涯的刚开始，尤其要注意的是，要做对的事情，不要让自己今后几十年的人生总是提心吊胆，更不值得为了一份工作赔上自己的青春年华。我的公司是个
不行贿的公司，以前很多人不理解，甚至自己的员工也不理解，不过如今，我们是同行中最大的企业，客户乐意和我们打交道，尤其是在国家打击腐败的时候，每个人都知道我们做生意不给钱的名声，都敢于和我们做生意。而勇于给钱的公司，不是倒了，就是
跑了，要不就是每天睡不好觉，人还是要看长远一点。很多时候，看起来最近的路，其实是最远的路，看起来最远的路，其实是最近的路。
跟对人是说，入行后要跟个好领导好老师，刚进社会的人做事情往往没有经验，需要有人言传身教。对于一个人的发展来说，一个好领导是非常重要的。所谓“好”的标
准，不是他让你少干活多拿钱，而是以下三个。
首先，好领导要有宽广的心胸，如果一个领导每天都会发脾气，那几乎可以肯定他不是个心胸宽广的人，能发脾气的时候却不发脾气的领导，多半是非常厉害的领导。中
国人当领导最大的毛病是容忍不了能力比自己强的人，所以常常可以看到的一个现象是，领导很有能力，手下一群庸才或者手下一群闲人。如果看到这样的环境，还是不要
去的好。
其次，领导要愿意从下属的角度来思考问题，这一点其实是从面试的时候就能发现的，如果这位领导总是从自己的角度来考虑问题，几乎不听你说什么，这就危险了。从
下属的角度来考虑问题并不代表同意下属的说法，但他必须了解下属的立场，下属为什么要这么想，然后他才有办法说服你，只关心自己怎么想的领导往往难以获得下属的信
服。
第三，领导敢于承担责任，如果出了问题就把责任往下推，有了功劳就往自己身上揽，这样的领导不跟也罢。选择领导，要选择关键时刻能抗得住的领导，能够为下属的
错误买单的领导，因为这是他作为领导的责任。
有可能，你碰不到好领导，因为，中国的领导往往是屁股决定脑袋的领导，因为他坐领导的位置，所以他的话就比较有道理，这是传统观念官本位的误区，可能有大量的
这种无知无能的领导，只是，这对于你其实是好事，如果将来有一天你要超过他，你希望他比较聪明还是比较笨？相对来说这样的领导其实不难搞定，只是你要把自己的身段
放下来而已。多认识一些人，多和比自己强的人打交道，同样能找到好的老师，不要和一群同样郁闷的人一起控诉社会，控诉老板，这帮不上你，只会让你更消极。和那些比
你强的人打交道，看他们是怎么想的，怎么做的，学习他们，然后跟更强的人打交道。
八、选择
我们每天做的最多的事情，其实是选择，因此在谈职业生涯的时候不得不提到这个话题。
我始终认为，在很大的范围内，我们究竟会成为一个什么样的人，决定权在我们自己，每天我们都在做各种各样的选择，我可以不去写这篇文章，去别人的帖子拍拍砖
头，也可以写下这些文字，帮助别人的同时也整理自己的思路，我可以多注意下格式让别人易于阅读，也可以写成一堆，我可以就这样发上来，也可以在发以前再看几遍，你
可以选择不刮胡子就去面试，也可以选择出门前照照镜子……每天，每一刻我们都在做这样那样的决定，我们可以漫不经心，也可以多花些心思，成千上万的小选择累计起
来，就决定了最终我们是个什么样的人。
从某种意义上来说我们的未来不是别人给的，是我们自己选择的，很多人会说我命苦啊，没得选择阿，如果你认为“去微软还是去IBM”“上清华还是上北大”“当销售副
总还是当厂长”这种才叫选择的话，的确你没有什么选择，大多数人都没有什么选择。但每天你都可以选择是否为客户服务更周到一些，是否对同事更耐心一些，是否把工作
做得更细致一些，是否把情况了解得更清楚一些，是否把不清楚的问题再弄清楚一些……你也可以选择在是否在痛苦中继续坚持，是否抛弃掉自己的那些负面的想法，是
否原谅一个人的错误，是否相信我在这里写下的这些话，是否不要再犯同样的错误……生活每天都在给你选择的机会，每天都在给你改变自己人生的机会，你可以选择赖在地
上撒泼打滚，也可以选择咬牙站起来。你永远都有选择。有些选择不是立杆见影的，需要累积，比如农民可以选择自己常常去浇地，也可以选择让老天去浇地，诚然你今天浇
水下去苗不见得今天马上就长出来，但常常浇水，大部分苗终究会长出来的，如果你不浇，收成一定很糟糕。
每天生活都在给你机会，他不会给你一叠现金也不会拱手送你个好工作，但实际上，他还是在给你机会。我的家庭是一个普通的家庭，没有任何了不起的社会关系，我
的父亲在大学毕业以后就被分配到了边疆，那个小县城只有一条马路，他们那一代人其实比我们更有理由抱怨，他们什么也没得到，年轻的时候文化大革命，书都没得读，支
援边疆插队落户，等到老了，却要给年轻人机会了。他有足够的理由象成千上万那样的青年一样坐在那里抱怨生不逢时，怨气冲天。然而在分配到边疆的十年之后，国家恢复
招研究生，他考回了原来的学校。研究生毕业，他被分配到了安徽一家小单位里，又是3年以后，国家第一届招收博士生，他又考回了原来的学校，成为中国第一代博士，那时
的他比现在的我年纪还大。生活并没有放弃他，他也没有放弃生活。10年的等待，他做了他自己的选择，他没有放弃，他没有破罐子破摔，所以时机到来的时候，他改变了自
己的人生。你最终会成为什么样的人，就决定在你的每个小小的选择之间。
你选择相信什么？你选择和谁交朋友？你选择做什么？你选择怎么做？……我们面临太多的选择，而这些选择当中，意识形态层面的选择又远比客观条件的选择来得重要
得多，比如选择做什么产品其实并不那么重要，而选择怎么做才重要。选择用什么人并不重要，而选择怎么带这些人才重要。大多数时候选择客观条件并不要紧，大多数关于
客观条件的选择并没有对错之分，要紧的是选择怎么做。一个大学生毕业了，他要去微软也好，他要卖猪肉也好，他要创业也好，他要做游戏代练也好，只要不犯法，不害人，都没有什么关系，要紧的是，选择了以后，怎么把事情做好。
除了这些，你还可以选择时间和环境，比如，你可以选择把这辈子最大的困难放在最有体力最有精力的时候，也可以走一步看一步，等到了40岁再说，只是到了40多岁，
那正是一辈子最脆弱的时候，上有老下有小，如果在那个时候碰上了职业危机，实在是一件很苦恼的事情。与其如此不如在20多岁30多岁的时候吃点苦，好让自己脆弱的时候
活得从容一些。你可以选择在温室里成长，也可以选择到野外磨砺，你可以选择在办公室吹冷气的工作，也可以选择40度的酷热下，去见你的客户，只是，这一切最终会累积
起来，引导你到你应得的未来。
我不敢说所有的事情你都有得选择，但是绝大部分事情你有选择，只是往往你不把这当作一种选择。认真对待每一次选择，才会有比较好的未来。
九、选择职业
职业的选择，总的来说，无非就是销售、市场、客服、物流、行政、人事、财务、技术、管理几个大类，有个有趣的现象就是，500强的CEO当中最多的是销售出身，第二
多的人是财务出身，这两者加起来大概超过95％。现代IT行业也有技术出身成为老板的，但实际上，后来他们还是从事了很多销售和市场的工作，并且表现出色，公司才获
得了成功，完全靠技术能力成为公司老板的，几乎没有。这是有原因的，因为销售就是一门跟人打交道的学问，而管理其实也是跟人打交道的学问，这两者之中有很多相通的
东西，他们的共同目标就是“让别人去做某件特定的事情。”而财务则是从数字的层面了解生意的本质，从宏观上看待生意的本质，对于一个生意是否挣钱，是否可以正常运
作有着最深刻的认识。
公司小的时候是销售主导公司，而公司大的时候是财务主导公司，销售的局限性在于只看人情不看数字，财务的局限性在于只看数字不看人情。公司初期，运营成本低，
有订单就活得下去，跟客户也没有什么谈判的条件，别人肯给生意做已经谢天谢地了，这个时候订单压倒一切，客户的要求压倒一切，所以当然要顾人情。公司大了以后，一
切都要规范化，免得因为不规范引起一些不必要的风险，同时运营成本也变高，必须提高利润率，把有限的资金放到最有产出的地方。对于上市公司来说，股东才不管你客户
是不是最近出国，最近是不是那个省又在搞严打，到了时候就要把业绩拿出来，拿不出来就抛股票，这个时候就是数字压倒一切。
前两天听到有人说一句话觉得很有道理，开始的时候我们想“能做什么？”，等到公司做大了有规模了，我们想“不能做什么。”很多人在工作中觉得为什么领导这么保
守，这也不行那也不行，错过很多机会。很多时候是因为，你还年轻，你想的是“能做什么”，而作为公司领导要考虑的方面很多，他比较关心“不能做什么”。
我并非鼓吹大家都去做销售或者财务，究竟选择什么样的职业，和你究竟要选择什么样的人生有关系，有些人就喜欢下班按时回家，看看书听听音乐，那也挺好，但就不
适合找个销售的工作了，否则会是折磨自己。有些人就喜欢出风头，喜欢成为一群人的中心，如果选择做财务工作，大概也干不久，因为一般老板不喜欢财务太积极，也不喜
欢财务话太多。先想好自己要过怎样的人生，再决定要找什么样的职业。有很多的不快乐，其实是源自不满足，而不满足，很多时候是源自于心不定，而心不定则是因为不清
楚究竟自己要什么，不清楚要什么的结果就是什么都想要，结果什么都没得到。
我想，我们还是因为生活而工作，不是因为工作而生活，生活是最要紧的，工作只是生活中的一部分。我总是觉得生活的各方方面都是相互影响的，如果生活本身一团乱
麻，工作也不会顺利。所以要有娱乐、要有社交、要锻炼身体，要有和睦的家庭……最要紧的，要开心，我的两个销售找我聊天，一肚子苦水，我问他们，2年以前，你什么都
没有，工资不高，没有客户关系，没有业绩，处于被开的边缘，现在的你比那时条件好了很多，为什么现在却更加不开心了？如果你做得越好越不开心，那你为什么还要工作？首先的首先，人还是要让自己高兴起来，让自己心态好起来，这种发自内心的改变
会让你更有耐心，更有信心，更有气质，更能包容……否则，看看镜子里的你，你满意么？
有人会说，你说得容易，我每天加班，不加班老板就会把我炒掉，每天累得要死，哪有时间娱乐、社交、锻炼？那是人们把目标设定太高的缘故，如果你还在动不动就会
被老板炒掉的边缘，那么你当然不能设立太高的目标，难道你还想每天去打高尔夫？你没时间去健身房锻炼身体，但是上下班的时候多走几步可以吧，有楼梯的时候走走楼梯
不走电梯可以吧？办公的间隙扭扭脖子拉拉肩膀做做俯卧撑可以吧？谁规定锻炼就一定要拿出每天2个小时去健身房？你没时间社交，每月参加郊游一次可以吧，周末去参加个
什么音乐班，绘画班之类的可以吧，去尝试认识一些同行，和他们找机会交流交流可以吧？开始的时候总是有些难的，但迈出这一步就会向良性循环的方向发展。而每天工作
得很苦闷，剩下的时间用来咀嚼苦闷，只会陷入恶性循环，让生活更加糟糕。
虽然离开惠普仅有十五天，但感觉上惠普已经离我很远。我的心思更多放在规划自己第二阶段的人生，这并非代表我对惠普没有任何眷恋，主要还是想以此驱动自己往前
走。
万科王石登珠穆朗玛峰的体验给我很多启发，虽然在出发时携带大量的物资，但是登顶的过程中，必须不断减轻负荷，最终只有一个氧气瓶和他登上峰顶。登山如此，漫
长的人生又何尝不是。
我宣布退休后，接到同事朋友同学的祝贺。大部分人都认为我能够在这样的职位上及年龄选择退休，是一种勇气，也是一种福气。
还有一部分人怀疑我只是借此机会换个工作，当然还有一些人说我在HP做不下去了，趁此机会离开。
我多年来已经习惯别人对我的说三道四，但对于好友，我还是挺关心大家是否真正理解我的想法，这也是写这篇文章的目的。
由于受我父亲早逝的影响，我很早就下定决心，要在有生之年实现自己的愿望，我不要像我父亲一样，为家庭生活忙碌一辈子，临终前感伤，懊恼自己有很多没有实现的
理想。
一本杂志的文章提到我们在生前就应该思考自己的墓志铭，因为那代表你自己对完美人生的定义，我们应该尽可能在有生之年去实现它。
我希望我的墓志铭上除了与家人及好友有关的内容外，是这样写着：
1.这个人曾经服务于一家全球最大的IT公司（HP）25年，和她一起经历过数次重大的变革，看着她从以电子仪表为主要的业务变革成全球最大的IT公司。
2.这个人曾经在全球发展最快的国家（中国）工作16年，并担任HP中国区总裁7年，见证及经历过中国改革开放的关键最新突破阶段，与中国一起成长。
3.这个人热爱飞行，曾经是一个有执照的飞行员，累积飞行时数超过X小时，曾经在X个机场起降过。
4.这个人曾经获得管理硕士学位，在领导管理上特别关注中国企业的组织行为及绩效，并且在这个领域上获得中国企业界的认可。
我费时25年才总结1和2两项成果，我不知还要费时多久才能达成3和4的愿望，特别是第4个愿望需要经历学术的训练，才能将我的经验总结成知识。
否则我的经验将无法有效影响及传授他人。因此重新进入学校学习，拿一个管理学位是有必要的，更何况这是我一个非常重要的愿望。
另一方面，我25年的时间都花在运营(operation)的领域，兢兢业业的做好职业人士的工作，它是一份好工作，特别是在HP，这份工作也帮助我建立财务的基础，支持家庭
的发展。
但是我不想终其一生，都陷入在运营的领域，我想象企业家一样，有机会靠一些点子(ideas)赚钱，虽然风险很高，但是值得一试，即使失败，也不枉走一回，这也是第4
个愿望其中的一部份。
Carly Fiorina曾经对我说过“这个世界上有好想法的人很多，但有能力去实现的人很少”，2007年5月21日在北大演讲时，有人问起那些书对我影响较大，我想对我人生观
有影响的其中一本书叫“TriggerPoint”，它的主要观点是：人生最需要的不是规划，而是在适当的时机掌握机会，采取行动。
我这些愿望在我心中已经酝酿一段很长的时间，开始的时候，也许一年想个一两次，过了也就忘掉，但逐渐的，这个心中的声音，愈来愈大，出现的频率也愈来愈高，
当它几乎每一个星期都会来与我对话时，我知道时机已经成熟。
但和任何人一样，要丢掉自己现在所拥有的，所熟悉的环境及稳定的收入，转到一条自己未曾经历过，存在未知风险的道路，需要绝大的勇气，家人的支持和好友的鼓励。有舍才有得，真是知易行难，我很高兴自己终于跨出了第一步。
我要感谢HP的EER提前退休优惠政策，它是其中一个关键的TriggerPoints,另一个关键因素是在去年五六月发生的事。
当时我家老大从大学毕业，老二从高中毕业，在他们继续工作及求学前，这是一个黄金时段，让我们全家可以相聚一段较长的时间，我为此很早就计划休一个长假，带着
他们到各地游玩。
但这个计划因为工作上一件重要的事情（Mark Hurd访华）不得不取消。这个事件刺激了我必须严肃的去对待那心中的声音，我会不会继续不断的错失很多关键的机会?
我已经年过50，我会不会走向和我父亲一样的道路？人事部老总Charles跟我说，很
多人在所有对他有利的星星都排成一列时，还是错失时机。
我知道原因，因为割舍及改变对人是多么的困难，我相信大部分的人都有自己人生的理想，但我也相信很多人最终只是把这些理想当成是幻想，然后不断的为自己寻找不
能实现的藉口，南非前总统曼德拉曾经说过，“与改变世界相比，改变自己更困难”，真是一针见血。
什么是快乐及有意义的人生？我相信每一个人的定义都不一样，对我来说，能实现我墓志铭上的内容就是我的定义。
在中国惠普总裁的位置上固然可以吸引很多的关注及眼球，但是我太太及较亲近的好友，都知道那不是我追求的，那只是为扮演好这个角色必须尽力做好的地方。
做一个没有名片的人士，虽然只有十多天的时间，但我发现我的脑袋里已经空出很多空间及能量，让我可以静心的为我ChapterII的新生活做细致的调研及规划。
我预订以两年的时间来完成转轨的准备工作，并且花多点时间与家人共处。这两年的时间我希望拿到飞行执照，拿到管理有关的硕士学位，提升英文的水平，建立新的网
络，多认识不同行业的人，保持与大陆的联系。希望两年后，我可以顺利回到大陆去实现我第四个愿望。
毫不意外，在生活上，我发现很多需要调整的地方。
二十多年来，我生活的步调及节奏，几乎完全被公司及工作所左右，不断涌出的deadline及任务驱动我每天的安排，一旦离开这样的环境，第一个需要调整的就是要依
靠自己的自律及意志力来驱动每天的活动，睡觉睡到自然醒的态度绝对不正确，放松自己，不给事情设定目标及时间表，或者对错失时间目标无所谓，也不正确，没有年度，
季度，月及周计划也不正确。
担任高层经理多年，已经养成交待事情的习惯，自己的时间主要花在思考，决策及追踪项目的进展情况，更多是依靠一个庞大的团队来执行具体的事项及秘书来处理很多
协调及繁琐的事情。
到美国后，很多事情需要打800号电话联系，但这些电话很忙，常让你在waitingline上等待很长的时间，当我在等待时，我可以体会以前秘书工作辛苦的地方，
但同时也提醒我自己，在这个阶段要改变态度，培养更大的耐性及自己动手做的能力。
生活的内容也要做出很大的调整，多出时间锻炼身体，多出时间关注家人，多出时间关注朋友，多出时间体验不同的休闲活动及飞行，一步步的，希望生活逐步调整到我
所期望的轨道上，期待这两年的生活既充实又充满乐趣及意义。
第一个快乐的体验就是准备及参加大儿子的订婚礼，那种全心投入，不需担忧工作数字的感觉真好。同时我也租好了公寓，买好了家具及车子，陪家人在周末的时候到
Reno及Lake Tahoe玩了一趟，LakeTahoe我去了多次，但这次的体验有所不同，我从心里欣赏到它的美丽。
但同时我也在加紧调研的工作，为申请大学及飞行学校做准备，这段时间也和在硅谷的朋友及一些风险投资公司见面，了解不同的产业。
我的人生观是“完美的演出来自充分的准备”，“勇于改变自己，适应不断变化的环境，机会将不断出现”，“快乐及有意义的人生来自于实现自己心中的愿望，而非外
在的掌声”。
我离开时，有两位好朋友送给我两个不同的祝语，Baron的是“多年功过化烟尘”，杨华的是“莫春者，风乎舞雩，咏而归”，它们分别代表了我离开惠普及走向未来的心
情。
我总结人生有三个阶段，一个阶段是为现实找一份工作，一个阶段是为现实，但可以选择一份自己愿意投入的工作，一个阶段是为理想去做一些事情。
我珍惜我的福气，感激HP及同事、好朋友给我的支持，鼓励及协助，这篇文字化我心声的文章与好友分享
本文由倍可亲网友[ belayashma ] 于 2008-12-27 07:48 上贴
原文网址： http://club.backchina.com/main/viewthread.php?tid=734829
经济危机让企业搁置外包计划
2008 年 12 月 30 日
过去十年中企业越来越多地将技术工作外包至工资水平较低的地区，以节约资金。但现在看来，经济疲软也对外包行业造成不利影响，至少短期内是这样。
根据Information Services Group Inc.旗下外包咨询公司TPI的数据显示，2008年第三季度签署的外包协议金额为6年来季度最低水平。当季金额在2,500万美元以上的大额外包协议仅有128项，总价值大约144亿美元。交易数量较上年同期减少大约20%，比第二季度减少22%。
密歇根大学(University of Michigan)商业管理学教授罗伯特•肯尼迪(Robert Kennedy)表示，人们或许认为有助于企业削减成本的服务行业能够在经济低迷期蓬勃发展；但企业将在未来几个月中被迫作出何种改变还存在太多不确定性，因此很多企业推迟了全部重大决定，其中也包括是否将业务外包出去。
这种趋势正在印度显现出来；很多提供技术外包服务的企业总部设在这里。例如，印度最大的外包公司之一Infosys Technologies Ltd.最近停止招聘，并表示某些客户已经推迟了部分项目的时间。
经济低迷将在几个方面改变外包行业。
首先，企业选择外包的项目类型正在发生变化。外包调研公司Brown-Wilson Group合伙人道格•布朗(Doug Brown)表示，过去很多企业将软件开发外包出去，而现在被外包的新型业务主要是基础设施管理服务，如监控企业网络或远程操作数据中心等。而这些都是传统的低利润业务，是很多大型外包公司一直在努力避开的。
企业也开始停止外包需要动用大量员工并重新检查内部业务流程的大型项目，而更倾向于短期外包协议，即能简单地将美国业务转移至其他以更低成本完成同样工作的地区。（海外工人的薪资水平依然不高：外包公司GlobalLogic Inc.首席执行长彼得•哈里森(Peter Harrison)目前付给印度雇员的平均年薪为大约15,500美元，低于2004年的水平。）
选择外包的企业构成也发生了变化。哈里森表示，过去他的客户中大、中、小型企业都有；但过去6个月中企业构成发生了变化：外包业务的小企业减少，但大企业增加。
原因之一是大型企业通常拥有确定的工作流程，很容易被外包企业以较低的成本复制。
密歇根大学教授肯尼迪说，小企业并不总是通过外包来节约成本，它们与外包公司合作通常要比雇佣新员工更快。不过现在很多小企业都在裁员，而那些仍在招聘的企业也更容易在当地找到适当人选。
尽管如此，肯尼迪仍预计外包业放缓只是暂时的。
他说，企业仍会继续努力削减成本，预计大规模外包交易将于2009年下半年恢复。
事实上，根据Hackett Group Inc.对200家跨国公司的调查显示，企业计划外包的技术类职位比例将由2008年的15.4%增至2010年的25.1%。
Ben Worthen
过去十年中企业越来越多地将技术工作外包至工资水平较低的地区，以节约资金。但现在看来，经济疲软也对外包行业造成不利影响，至少短期内是这样。
根据Information Services Group Inc.旗下外包咨询公司TPI的数据显示，2008年第三季度签署的外包协议金额为6年来季度最低水平。当季金额在2,500万美元以上的大额外包协议仅有128项，总价值大约144亿美元。交易数量较上年同期减少大约20%，比第二季度减少22%。
密歇根大学(University of Michigan)商业管理学教授罗伯特•肯尼迪(Robert Kennedy)表示，人们或许认为有助于企业削减成本的服务行业能够在经济低迷期蓬勃发展；但企业将在未来几个月中被迫作出何种改变还存在太多不确定性，因此很多企业推迟了全部重大决定，其中也包括是否将业务外包出去。
这种趋势正在印度显现出来；很多提供技术外包服务的企业总部设在这里。例如，印度最大的外包公司之一Infosys Technologies Ltd.最近停止招聘，并表示某些客户已经推迟了部分项目的时间。
经济低迷将在几个方面改变外包行业。
首先，企业选择外包的项目类型正在发生变化。外包调研公司Brown-Wilson Group合伙人道格•布朗(Doug Brown)表示，过去很多企业将软件开发外包出去，而现在被外包的新型业务主要是基础设施管理服务，如监控企业网络或远程操作数据中心等。而这些都是传统的低利润业务，是很多大型外包公司一直在努力避开的。
企业也开始停止外包需要动用大量员工并重新检查内部业务流程的大型项目，而更倾向于短期外包协议，即能简单地将美国业务转移至其他以更低成本完成同样工作的地区。（海外工人的薪资水平依然不高：外包公司GlobalLogic Inc.首席执行长彼得•哈里森(Peter Harrison)目前付给印度雇员的平均年薪为大约15,500美元，低于2004年的水平。）
选择外包的企业构成也发生了变化。哈里森表示，过去他的客户中大、中、小型企业都有；但过去6个月中企业构成发生了变化：外包业务的小企业减少，但大企业增加。
原因之一是大型企业通常拥有确定的工作流程，很容易被外包企业以较低的成本复制。
密歇根大学教授肯尼迪说，小企业并不总是通过外包来节约成本，它们与外包公司合作通常要比雇佣新员工更快。不过现在很多小企业都在裁员，而那些仍在招聘的企业也更容易在当地找到适当人选。
尽管如此，肯尼迪仍预计外包业放缓只是暂时的。
他说，企业仍会继续努力削减成本，预计大规模外包交易将于2009年下半年恢复。
事实上，根据Hackett Group Inc.对200家跨国公司的调查显示，企业计划外包的技术类职位比例将由2008年的15.4%增至2010年的25.1%。
Ben Worthen
How to Live: A Search for Wisdom From Old People
New books illuminate wisdom, pathos and humor of old age
By Bob Minzesheimer, USA TODAY
At 46, Henry Alford has written a book about old age, How to Live: A Search for Wisdom From Old People (While They Are Still on This Earth), which prompts a question:
Is he old enough for this kind of work?
"I'm preparing," says Alford, an "investigative humorist" who writes for The New Yorker and Vanity Fair. "I'm getting ready, battening down the hatches, girding the loins."
He has company. If bookstores were organized more like hospitals, the geriatric section would be crowded.
Also out next week is Somewhere Towards the End, a memoir on aging by Diana Athill, the 91-year-old British editor and writer.
Jane Brody's Guide to The Great Beyond: A Practical Primer to Help You and Your Loved One Prepare Medically, Legally, and Emotionally for the End of Life arrives in February.
And Andrew Zuckerman's Wisdom: 50 Unique Portraits, photos and thoughts of 50 celebrities 65 and older, was released in October.
Alford says his book is different. Unlike Athill, whose memoir he calls "glorious," he thinks of himself as "a youthful 28 who in real life happens to be 46."
And despite his title, he says, "I'm not proposing a way for others to live. Rather, I'm the listener." (He interviewed more than 100 people 70 and older.)
But he didn't want "to just open the floodgates" to what he calls "one of those open-mike books, where people of a certain age get to natter on."
How to Live is an amusing first-person account of his research and conversations with old people, famous and unknown.
When he asked Harold Bloom, 78, the acerbic Yale scholar, what he has gained with age, Alford was surprised by Bloom's tender response: "A healthier respect and affection for my wife than I used to have."
Althea Washington, 75, a retired teacher who lost her husband and house in Hurricane Katrina, discussed coping with a new life in a small apartment close to train tracks.
"Can you hear that train?" she asked. "As long as it stays on its track, I'll stay on mine."
In the course of his research, two of Alford's subjects — his mother and stepfather — broke up after being together for 36 years.
"It was like stepping into a bear trap," he says. "But then I thought, 'I'm writing a book about bear traps.' "
Their divorce became a subplot and leads to Alford's final piece of wisdom: "Maybe it's not until you've grown old that you realize you've picked the wrong person to grow old with."
By Bob Minzesheimer, USA TODAY
At 46, Henry Alford has written a book about old age, How to Live: A Search for Wisdom From Old People (While They Are Still on This Earth), which prompts a question:
Is he old enough for this kind of work?
"I'm preparing," says Alford, an "investigative humorist" who writes for The New Yorker and Vanity Fair. "I'm getting ready, battening down the hatches, girding the loins."
He has company. If bookstores were organized more like hospitals, the geriatric section would be crowded.
Also out next week is Somewhere Towards the End, a memoir on aging by Diana Athill, the 91-year-old British editor and writer.
Jane Brody's Guide to The Great Beyond: A Practical Primer to Help You and Your Loved One Prepare Medically, Legally, and Emotionally for the End of Life arrives in February.
And Andrew Zuckerman's Wisdom: 50 Unique Portraits, photos and thoughts of 50 celebrities 65 and older, was released in October.
Alford says his book is different. Unlike Athill, whose memoir he calls "glorious," he thinks of himself as "a youthful 28 who in real life happens to be 46."
And despite his title, he says, "I'm not proposing a way for others to live. Rather, I'm the listener." (He interviewed more than 100 people 70 and older.)
But he didn't want "to just open the floodgates" to what he calls "one of those open-mike books, where people of a certain age get to natter on."
How to Live is an amusing first-person account of his research and conversations with old people, famous and unknown.
When he asked Harold Bloom, 78, the acerbic Yale scholar, what he has gained with age, Alford was surprised by Bloom's tender response: "A healthier respect and affection for my wife than I used to have."
Althea Washington, 75, a retired teacher who lost her husband and house in Hurricane Katrina, discussed coping with a new life in a small apartment close to train tracks.
"Can you hear that train?" she asked. "As long as it stays on its track, I'll stay on mine."
In the course of his research, two of Alford's subjects — his mother and stepfather — broke up after being together for 36 years.
"It was like stepping into a bear trap," he says. "But then I thought, 'I'm writing a book about bear traps.' "
Their divorce became a subplot and leads to Alford's final piece of wisdom: "Maybe it's not until you've grown old that you realize you've picked the wrong person to grow old with."
2008年12月29日星期一
Blue Oval counting on Taurus, Fusion for success
Monday, December 29, 2008
Top exec says new models will help company navigate a volatile year ahead.
Bryce G. Hoffman / The Detroit News
The upcoming launch of the new Ford Taurus and Fusion sedans is "critical" to the success of Ford Motor Co., according to Ford Americas President Mark Fields, who also acknowledged that the company cannot get enough batteries to meet demand for its hybrid cars and sport utility vehicles.
The comments came in a wide-ranging online chat with employees last week, a transcript of which was obtained by The Detroit News.
Fields sought to reassure workers that Ford is in a stronger position than domestic rivals, urging them to "share the positive things going on at Ford" with "friends, family and neighbors." He also responded to questions about upcoming white-collar layoffs and said Ford will "do whatever is necessary" to stay competitive with General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC as they pursue government-mandated restructuring.
"Our biggest challenge in 2009, in my opinion, will be our ability to continue to stay ahead of a very volatile market," Fields said.
"Both Taurus and Fusion are critical. Taurus will further strengthen our car lineup, offering head-turning design and outstanding driving dynamics -- introducing some buzz in the full-size sedan segment for us. At the same time, Fusion -- with a new powertrain lineup and an all-new hybrid that will be America's most fuel-efficient midsize sedan -- helps build Ford's credibility as an industry leader in fuel efficiency."
Ford's U.S. sales are down 19 percent year-over-year, which is worse than the industry as a whole.
The new Taurus will be unveiled at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit next month. The redesigned Fusion and new Fusion Hybrid debuted at the Los Angeles auto show last month.
Ford has been touting the Fusion Hybrid's segment-leading 41 mpg rating, which handily beats the Toyota Camry Hybrid. But Fields admitted that Ford cannot get enough batteries to keep up with consumer demand for the vehicle and its sibling, the Mercury Milan Hybrid, let alone the two hybrid SUVs it already has on the market.
"We are constrained by the amount of components -- including batteries -- that the supply base can provide us," he said. "That said, we will continue to work with suppliers to look at every opportunity to meet demand and still provide a good return for the business."
Analysts doubt Ford is making money on any of its hybrids, but that does not mean they are not important.
"You cannot overstate the PR significance of those mileage numbers," said analyst Erich Merkle of Crowe Horwath. "These are green halo cars that actually benefit the entire product line."
As for the Taurus, he said it may well be the car that saves Ford twice. The original Taurus brought Ford back from the brink in the 1980s. While the current version is lackluster, he says the redesign looks like another home run.
"People are overlooking the Taurus right now. They have a real opportunity to do something special with the new one," Merkle said. "People are going to be very surprised -- particularly with the styling. It's 1986 all over again."
The questions themselves reveal much about employees' anxieties, as well as their confidence in Ford's decision to chart a separate course from its crosstown competitors.
One asked why Ford does not consider an across-the-board pay cut for salaried employees instead of another round of white-collar layoffs.
"This is a really good question and one I receive from a lot of employees," Fields said. "The most important thing we can do in our business is ensure we have the appropriate structure to be competitive going forward. As part of that, it's important that we have the right level of personnel to support the business. And to ensure we have the appropriate talent to fill those necessary jobs, our management team believes we should pay competitive wages and salaries."
Another asked if Ford has contingency plans to deal with supply issues if GM or Chrysler file for bankruptcy.
"This is a really important question, given the environment," Fields said. "In the case of the supply base, we continue to analyze and work with our suppliers on scenario planning to ensure that no matter the circumstances, we are in a position to continue to smoothly operate our business."
One employee asked what Ford would do if a bankruptcy court threw out GM or Chrysler's contracts with the United Auto Workers.
"We are prepared to do whatever is necessary to make sure Ford Motor Co. remains competitive -- in all cost elements," Fields replied. "We have a very good relationship with the UAW, and they have the same interests we have, which is for Ford Motor Co. to be successful. It's too early to tell how things will work out for GM and Chrysler. But what we know is that it's essential for Ford to be competitive in all elements of the business."
Top exec says new models will help company navigate a volatile year ahead.
Bryce G. Hoffman / The Detroit News
The upcoming launch of the new Ford Taurus and Fusion sedans is "critical" to the success of Ford Motor Co., according to Ford Americas President Mark Fields, who also acknowledged that the company cannot get enough batteries to meet demand for its hybrid cars and sport utility vehicles.
The comments came in a wide-ranging online chat with employees last week, a transcript of which was obtained by The Detroit News.
Fields sought to reassure workers that Ford is in a stronger position than domestic rivals, urging them to "share the positive things going on at Ford" with "friends, family and neighbors." He also responded to questions about upcoming white-collar layoffs and said Ford will "do whatever is necessary" to stay competitive with General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC as they pursue government-mandated restructuring.
"Our biggest challenge in 2009, in my opinion, will be our ability to continue to stay ahead of a very volatile market," Fields said.
"Both Taurus and Fusion are critical. Taurus will further strengthen our car lineup, offering head-turning design and outstanding driving dynamics -- introducing some buzz in the full-size sedan segment for us. At the same time, Fusion -- with a new powertrain lineup and an all-new hybrid that will be America's most fuel-efficient midsize sedan -- helps build Ford's credibility as an industry leader in fuel efficiency."
Ford's U.S. sales are down 19 percent year-over-year, which is worse than the industry as a whole.
The new Taurus will be unveiled at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit next month. The redesigned Fusion and new Fusion Hybrid debuted at the Los Angeles auto show last month.
Ford has been touting the Fusion Hybrid's segment-leading 41 mpg rating, which handily beats the Toyota Camry Hybrid. But Fields admitted that Ford cannot get enough batteries to keep up with consumer demand for the vehicle and its sibling, the Mercury Milan Hybrid, let alone the two hybrid SUVs it already has on the market.
"We are constrained by the amount of components -- including batteries -- that the supply base can provide us," he said. "That said, we will continue to work with suppliers to look at every opportunity to meet demand and still provide a good return for the business."
Analysts doubt Ford is making money on any of its hybrids, but that does not mean they are not important.
"You cannot overstate the PR significance of those mileage numbers," said analyst Erich Merkle of Crowe Horwath. "These are green halo cars that actually benefit the entire product line."
As for the Taurus, he said it may well be the car that saves Ford twice. The original Taurus brought Ford back from the brink in the 1980s. While the current version is lackluster, he says the redesign looks like another home run.
"People are overlooking the Taurus right now. They have a real opportunity to do something special with the new one," Merkle said. "People are going to be very surprised -- particularly with the styling. It's 1986 all over again."
The questions themselves reveal much about employees' anxieties, as well as their confidence in Ford's decision to chart a separate course from its crosstown competitors.
One asked why Ford does not consider an across-the-board pay cut for salaried employees instead of another round of white-collar layoffs.
"This is a really good question and one I receive from a lot of employees," Fields said. "The most important thing we can do in our business is ensure we have the appropriate structure to be competitive going forward. As part of that, it's important that we have the right level of personnel to support the business. And to ensure we have the appropriate talent to fill those necessary jobs, our management team believes we should pay competitive wages and salaries."
Another asked if Ford has contingency plans to deal with supply issues if GM or Chrysler file for bankruptcy.
"This is a really important question, given the environment," Fields said. "In the case of the supply base, we continue to analyze and work with our suppliers on scenario planning to ensure that no matter the circumstances, we are in a position to continue to smoothly operate our business."
One employee asked what Ford would do if a bankruptcy court threw out GM or Chrysler's contracts with the United Auto Workers.
"We are prepared to do whatever is necessary to make sure Ford Motor Co. remains competitive -- in all cost elements," Fields replied. "We have a very good relationship with the UAW, and they have the same interests we have, which is for Ford Motor Co. to be successful. It's too early to tell how things will work out for GM and Chrysler. But what we know is that it's essential for Ford to be competitive in all elements of the business."
China's Consumers: Not Ready to Save the World
Monday, Dec. 29, 2008
By Jessie Jiang / Tianjin
By any local standard in the prosperous northeastern coastal city of Tianjin, Gong Haitao, 31, seems to have it all. A production supervisor at a major glass manufacturer, Gong enjoys a steady income, has a decent apartment, a car, and is happily married. But during a recent drive from downtown Tianjin to his suburban home, Gong couldn't stop complaining about life, albeit in a rustic, good-humored way. "If it wasn't for the bad economy, I would have bought a second car and a nicer apartment by now," he says while driving past a grand mixture of construction sites and farms in southern Tianjin. Along for the ride is his wife, Wang Yanfeng, 28, manager of a high-end local beauty salon.
Young middle-class couples like Gong and Wang are key to China's economic future — just as China's future may determine how long the global recession lasts. They are part of the population cohort the government hopes will boost domestic consumption, which takes up a mere 35% of the country's GDP right now, and thereby wean the country away from export-dependent growth. China has long been concerned about its sluggish domestic consumer demand, and has recently vowed to expand it by injecting $586 billion in nationwide infrastructure. But a dwindling confidence in the economy seem to be getting in the way of the government's agenda. Here in the industrial town of Dagang just south of Tianjin, instead of spending more to spur the country's GDP, the Gongs are actually tightening up their wallets for a rainy day. The Chinese have been hardy savers even in the best of times, scoring the highest saving rate among all major countries. Now, more than ever, their money is sitting in banks, unspent. "Call it old-school if you will, but I think putting cash in a bank really is the safest form to keep money right now," says Gong. "And a lot of my colleagues would agree, too."
Gong's increasing wariness of spending and investing comes with good reasons. Throughout this past year, bad investments in ventures and funds have cost the couple a hefty 50,000 yuan (roughly $7,300) — or about one third of their annual income — something inconceivable in the popular mind when the economic outlook was much rosier.
Nevertheless, the Gongs' living standards don't exactly fit into the Chinese definition of frugality. They live in a cozy two-bedroom apartment in downtown Dagang, drive to work everyday in a Kia Cerato that according to Gong, about 70% of the locals still deem a luxury. But they are not carrying a mortgage, which could have easily added another 2,000 yuan (nearly $300) to their monthly expenditures. Gong's parents chipped with their savings to help the young couple purchase their apartment.
Even so, the couple still largely limit their regular spending to necessities like food, clothing and gas, totaling about 4,000 yuan (about $580) a month. That amount is takes up most of Gong's monthly salary. By keeping luxuries down and giving up vacation travel, the couple has managed to save up all of Wang's salary, which normally amounts to about 10,000 yuan ($1,460) a month. "I just like to stay in and watch movies when I'm off from work," says Gong, who describes himself as an indoor person. The farthest trip he's been on in recent years was a one-hour flight to Dalian, a coastal city right across from Tianjin on the Bohai Bay. "Fortunately, [not traveling] saves money, too."
Married for two years, the Gongs say they want to stay childless for another four years, partly because of their financial situation. Like so many other young Chinese couples, having a baby brings additional financial burdens that they are afraid they can't afford. "It's just a possible item in our next five-year plan," says Gong. The next "five-year plan" includes a car and a better health insurance package for his wife, as well as a new apartment in a nicer neighborhood where they can feel secure to walk their dog. But right now, everything is up in the air, because he fears there is a 10% chance of his losing his job because his company is suffering in the worldwide recession. It supplies windows to the globalized auto industry. "If the economy picks up next year, the first thing I'll do is to buy a new car," says a determined Gong. "It's absolutely necessary, and within our capacity. But now we are just waiting for the right time."
By Jessie Jiang / Tianjin
By any local standard in the prosperous northeastern coastal city of Tianjin, Gong Haitao, 31, seems to have it all. A production supervisor at a major glass manufacturer, Gong enjoys a steady income, has a decent apartment, a car, and is happily married. But during a recent drive from downtown Tianjin to his suburban home, Gong couldn't stop complaining about life, albeit in a rustic, good-humored way. "If it wasn't for the bad economy, I would have bought a second car and a nicer apartment by now," he says while driving past a grand mixture of construction sites and farms in southern Tianjin. Along for the ride is his wife, Wang Yanfeng, 28, manager of a high-end local beauty salon.
Young middle-class couples like Gong and Wang are key to China's economic future — just as China's future may determine how long the global recession lasts. They are part of the population cohort the government hopes will boost domestic consumption, which takes up a mere 35% of the country's GDP right now, and thereby wean the country away from export-dependent growth. China has long been concerned about its sluggish domestic consumer demand, and has recently vowed to expand it by injecting $586 billion in nationwide infrastructure. But a dwindling confidence in the economy seem to be getting in the way of the government's agenda. Here in the industrial town of Dagang just south of Tianjin, instead of spending more to spur the country's GDP, the Gongs are actually tightening up their wallets for a rainy day. The Chinese have been hardy savers even in the best of times, scoring the highest saving rate among all major countries. Now, more than ever, their money is sitting in banks, unspent. "Call it old-school if you will, but I think putting cash in a bank really is the safest form to keep money right now," says Gong. "And a lot of my colleagues would agree, too."
Gong's increasing wariness of spending and investing comes with good reasons. Throughout this past year, bad investments in ventures and funds have cost the couple a hefty 50,000 yuan (roughly $7,300) — or about one third of their annual income — something inconceivable in the popular mind when the economic outlook was much rosier.
Nevertheless, the Gongs' living standards don't exactly fit into the Chinese definition of frugality. They live in a cozy two-bedroom apartment in downtown Dagang, drive to work everyday in a Kia Cerato that according to Gong, about 70% of the locals still deem a luxury. But they are not carrying a mortgage, which could have easily added another 2,000 yuan (nearly $300) to their monthly expenditures. Gong's parents chipped with their savings to help the young couple purchase their apartment.
Even so, the couple still largely limit their regular spending to necessities like food, clothing and gas, totaling about 4,000 yuan (about $580) a month. That amount is takes up most of Gong's monthly salary. By keeping luxuries down and giving up vacation travel, the couple has managed to save up all of Wang's salary, which normally amounts to about 10,000 yuan ($1,460) a month. "I just like to stay in and watch movies when I'm off from work," says Gong, who describes himself as an indoor person. The farthest trip he's been on in recent years was a one-hour flight to Dalian, a coastal city right across from Tianjin on the Bohai Bay. "Fortunately, [not traveling] saves money, too."
Married for two years, the Gongs say they want to stay childless for another four years, partly because of their financial situation. Like so many other young Chinese couples, having a baby brings additional financial burdens that they are afraid they can't afford. "It's just a possible item in our next five-year plan," says Gong. The next "five-year plan" includes a car and a better health insurance package for his wife, as well as a new apartment in a nicer neighborhood where they can feel secure to walk their dog. But right now, everything is up in the air, because he fears there is a 10% chance of his losing his job because his company is suffering in the worldwide recession. It supplies windows to the globalized auto industry. "If the economy picks up next year, the first thing I'll do is to buy a new car," says a determined Gong. "It's absolutely necessary, and within our capacity. But now we are just waiting for the right time."
Amazon 2008 holiday season was 'best ever'
SEATTLE (AP) — Online retailer Amazon.com called this holiday season its "best ever," saying Friday that it saw a 17% increase in orders on its busiest day — a rare piece of good news in a season that has been far from merry for most retailers, including online businesses.
Amazon customers ordered more than 6.3 million items on Dec. 15, compared with roughly 5.4 million on its peak day last year, the company said. It shipped more than 5.6 million products on its best day, a 44% surge over 2007, when it shipped about 3.9 million on its busiest day.
Amazon's best-sellers included the Nintendo Wii game console, Samsung's 52-inch LCD HDTV and Apple Inc.'s iPod touch.
Analysts agreed Amazon's report was good news for the online shopping giant, but they were divided over whether the results indicate strength in online commerce in general.
Forrester Research analyst Sucharita Mulpuru said Amazon's experience shows the current economy is favoring discount retailers, both online and offline.
"The Amazon story doesn't surprise me because Amazon has always traditionally been a leader on price, and they're one of the first places consumers go when they're looking for things online," Mulpuru said. "In many ways they're like the Wal-Mart of the online world."
Holiday sales typically account for 30% to 50% of a retailer's annual total, but rising unemployment, home foreclosures, the stock market decline and other economic worries led many shoppers to slash their shopping budgets this year.
SpendingPulse — a division of MasterCard Advisors — said its preliminary data show that online sales fell 2.3% compared with the 2007 holiday season, while retail sales overall fell 5.5% to 8%, including sales of cars and gasoline. The decline was 2% to 4% when auto and gas sales are excluded.
Online shopping may have gotten a boost from winter storms during last two weeks before Christmas, which made travel to brick-and-mortar stores more difficult.
And, although Amazon's orders rose, the company didn't say whether orders were, on average, worth more or less than last year. Spokeswoman Sally Fouts said the company would release revenue results in its fourth-quarter earnings report, due in about a month.
But she said this was Amazon's "best season ever."
Orders to Amazon on the peak day of its holiday season have jumped in the double-digit percentage range for at least the past 5 years, according to data released by the Seattle, Wash.-based company since 2002. Last year, Amazon's orders spiked 35% to 5.4 million at their peak, from 4 million in 2006.
Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Scott Devitt said online retailers' sales tend to grow much faster than those of brick-and-mortar retailers, but he said that difference narrowed this year. That's in part because shoppers tend to go to stores for necessities and online for discretionary purchases, he said. And in an economic downturn, consumers focus on their most-needed purchases and cut back on more frivolous items.
Devitt said Amazon benefited from a vast infrastructure that allows for faster, more reliable shipping than most of its online peers offer. He called Amazon's announcement an "extremely positive data point" and said the company is "uniquely positioned to do well in an environment like this."
That environment has left many retailers in a tough position. NPD Group senior retail analyst Marshal Cohen said they will be forced in coming weeks to take still more drastic measures to drive sales and raise whatever cash flow they can.
In afternoon trading, Amazon's shares gained 25 cents to $51.69.
Amazon customers ordered more than 6.3 million items on Dec. 15, compared with roughly 5.4 million on its peak day last year, the company said. It shipped more than 5.6 million products on its best day, a 44% surge over 2007, when it shipped about 3.9 million on its busiest day.
Amazon's best-sellers included the Nintendo Wii game console, Samsung's 52-inch LCD HDTV and Apple Inc.'s iPod touch.
Analysts agreed Amazon's report was good news for the online shopping giant, but they were divided over whether the results indicate strength in online commerce in general.
Forrester Research analyst Sucharita Mulpuru said Amazon's experience shows the current economy is favoring discount retailers, both online and offline.
"The Amazon story doesn't surprise me because Amazon has always traditionally been a leader on price, and they're one of the first places consumers go when they're looking for things online," Mulpuru said. "In many ways they're like the Wal-Mart of the online world."
Holiday sales typically account for 30% to 50% of a retailer's annual total, but rising unemployment, home foreclosures, the stock market decline and other economic worries led many shoppers to slash their shopping budgets this year.
SpendingPulse — a division of MasterCard Advisors — said its preliminary data show that online sales fell 2.3% compared with the 2007 holiday season, while retail sales overall fell 5.5% to 8%, including sales of cars and gasoline. The decline was 2% to 4% when auto and gas sales are excluded.
Online shopping may have gotten a boost from winter storms during last two weeks before Christmas, which made travel to brick-and-mortar stores more difficult.
And, although Amazon's orders rose, the company didn't say whether orders were, on average, worth more or less than last year. Spokeswoman Sally Fouts said the company would release revenue results in its fourth-quarter earnings report, due in about a month.
But she said this was Amazon's "best season ever."
Orders to Amazon on the peak day of its holiday season have jumped in the double-digit percentage range for at least the past 5 years, according to data released by the Seattle, Wash.-based company since 2002. Last year, Amazon's orders spiked 35% to 5.4 million at their peak, from 4 million in 2006.
Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Scott Devitt said online retailers' sales tend to grow much faster than those of brick-and-mortar retailers, but he said that difference narrowed this year. That's in part because shoppers tend to go to stores for necessities and online for discretionary purchases, he said. And in an economic downturn, consumers focus on their most-needed purchases and cut back on more frivolous items.
Devitt said Amazon benefited from a vast infrastructure that allows for faster, more reliable shipping than most of its online peers offer. He called Amazon's announcement an "extremely positive data point" and said the company is "uniquely positioned to do well in an environment like this."
That environment has left many retailers in a tough position. NPD Group senior retail analyst Marshal Cohen said they will be forced in coming weeks to take still more drastic measures to drive sales and raise whatever cash flow they can.
In afternoon trading, Amazon's shares gained 25 cents to $51.69.
2008年12月28日星期日
Media Make Small Strides
In China, Media Make Small Strides
Officials See More Open but Controlled Reporting as Tool to Quell Unrest
By Maureen Fan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 28, 2008; A16
BEIJING -- This fall, a scholarly magazine that focuses on Communist Party history pushed the envelope again.
Editors, emboldened a few years ago after writing about a rarely mentioned former top official the party had purged, published a cover story about a former party chief banned from mention in state-controlled media because of his support for students during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Propaganda officials waited two months before visiting the magazine's director, Du Daozheng, an 85-year-old party loyalist. At his office, he said, they delivered a subtle message. "Mr. Du, you have been working so hard. And you are old now, right?" the men reportedly told Du, director of Yanhuang Chunqiu, last month. "The implication was that I should resign now," he said in an interview.
That Du and his publication were not treated as harshly as they would have been in years past was one sign of change for state-controlled media in today's China. But the encounter also serves as the latest example of the party's determination to control the media at a time when a financial downturn threatens to aggravate social tensions and several important anniversaries have made officials nervous about dissent.
Propaganda officials have cracked down on Chinese writers and journalists who signed an open letter, known as Charter '08, that calls for an end to one-party rule. More than 5,000 lawyers, activists, Nobel prize winners and leading Chinese scholars also have signed the petition. At the same time, officials have begun to see that more open reporting could be used to help quell unrest, so long as the media remain under the party's control.
"This year there is more openness in China's media, and more and more top officials support more openness," said Zhan Jiang, director of the journalism school at the China Youth University for Political Sciences.
"But the recent tense situation in the media may be caused by concerns about the current economic crisis, which is much worse than expected, and about the 20th anniversary of the June 4th incident next year," Zhan said, referring to the Tiananmen massacre.
In the summer, China hosted the Olympic Games, which showcased a modern, prosperous nation but also highlighted a repressive government unwilling to tolerate dissent. As China celebrated 30 years of opening up and reforming its economy this month, even the Olympic motto, "One World, One Dream," with its reference to universal values, sparked a debate over whether capitalistic Western values are bad for China.
Yanhuang Chunqiu, which supports gradual democratization, published a series of articles three years ago commemorating the birthday of Hu Yaobang, a former party chief and reformer whose death sparked the Tiananmen movement. Propaganda officials responded by destroying the remaining 5,000 copies of the 50,000-circulation magazine. Hu had not been banned from mention, and central government officials eventually held a small ceremony that month rehabilitating his public image.
This time, with circulation at 80,000, Du chose a more difficult subject: former secretary general Zhao Ziyang, a reformer fired in 1989 for siding with and trying to help the student demonstrators. The piece, written by a retired top editor of the official New China News Agency, was the first positive story about Zhao to appear since 1989. Although it did not mention the Tiananmen incident, the report was seen as a direct challenge to the government's version of the massacre and of Zhao's mistakes.
And yet Du was able to challenge the propaganda officials by reminding them that a group of retired senior leaders had elected him to run the magazine.
Thanks to the Internet and the increasing commercialization of Chinese media, the public has become more demanding of reform and less tolerant of corruption. Media organizations that depend on growing circulation or reform-minded publications such as Yanhuang Chunqiu reflect that.
At the same time, central government officials have failed to narrow a widening wealth gap and stem growing unrest. Rising unemployment, falling exports and imports, and concerns about housing bubbles and a plummeting stock market have prompted officials to stress the need to guide public opinion, requiring reporters to save their most sensitive investigations for "internal reference" and urging them to report the facts about riots and protests but not the causes.
President Hu Jintao said in June that news coverage of emergency incidents should be more timely, authoritative and transparent, but he stressed the need to adhere to party propaganda. "If the media guidance is correct, it is good for the party, the country and the public," Hu said in a visit to the official People's Daily newspaper.
Although some journalists viewed the remark as a signal allowing more open reporting, others said the openness is being pushed only by individual journalists.
"There are pockets of progress and areas journalists can clearly write about that they couldn't before, such as malfeasance and local corruption, but these areas are self-created and may not be sustainable," said Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based analyst. "The whole tenor of Hu Jintao's leadership has been of centralization, and media control is part of that."
The warning to Du came as several journalists have been seized for investigating corruption or removed from their jobs for aggressive reporting.
This month, the Beijing News published security camera footage showing the arrest of a journalist with the Network News newspaper. Chief reporter Guan Jian was detained for two weeks at the behest of Shanxi public security officials without his family's knowledge, while another police department accepted a missing-person report from his relatives without telling them about his arrest.
"It is actually a terrorist act with violence and intention to fool the public," said Chang Ping, an editor at Southern Metropolis Weekly, criticizing the case in his blog.
Officials who routinely censor Internet access have also recently blocked the New York Times, the Voice of America, and Hong Kong publications Ming Pao and Asiaweek.
"What's the big deal? They are frightening themselves! They have no confidence in their regime," media commentator Li Datong, who was ousted as editor of Freezing Point, said of the officials. Li said officials stepped up trials and arrests this year, the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
In the past, local government officials at least pretended to accommodate reporters, veteran journalist Wang Keqin of the China Economic Times said. "Now . . . they pay no attention to journalists' requests for interviews or try every means to turn bad news into good or retaliate against journalists, sometimes physically," Wang said.
The reason might be that the stakes are higher, for journalists and corrupt officials, said Peter Herford, journalism professor at Shantou University in southern Guangdong province.
"There are more oxes to be gored at a higher level, and many more people are involved in this game," Herford said. "Reporters have also become more sophisticated. They're letting the easy stuff go and instead thinking, 'How do I make my mark?' If they bring down a provincial government official or part of an industry, in a sense, that's their protection."
More broadly, there has been a greater sense of openness over time, journalists said.
On Dec. 8, the Beijing News published a report accusing Shandong provincial officials of locking up in mental hospitals ordinary citizens seeking to file complaints. Allegations that the petitioners were forced to take medication were widely published in other media and prompted a critical editorial in the English-language China Daily, a broadsheet aimed at foreigners.
"Before opening and reform, there were only four pages in the official People's Daily. There were other party papers, but the pages were almost all the same. . . . Now, there are so many non-party papers, allowing different voices to be heard," said Yang Jisheng, deputy head of Yanhuang Chunqiu and a former senior correspondent for the New China News Agency. "If things are not better, how can I stand here and talk to you?"
Researcher Liu Songjie contributed to this report.
Officials See More Open but Controlled Reporting as Tool to Quell Unrest
By Maureen Fan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 28, 2008; A16
BEIJING -- This fall, a scholarly magazine that focuses on Communist Party history pushed the envelope again.
Editors, emboldened a few years ago after writing about a rarely mentioned former top official the party had purged, published a cover story about a former party chief banned from mention in state-controlled media because of his support for students during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Propaganda officials waited two months before visiting the magazine's director, Du Daozheng, an 85-year-old party loyalist. At his office, he said, they delivered a subtle message. "Mr. Du, you have been working so hard. And you are old now, right?" the men reportedly told Du, director of Yanhuang Chunqiu, last month. "The implication was that I should resign now," he said in an interview.
That Du and his publication were not treated as harshly as they would have been in years past was one sign of change for state-controlled media in today's China. But the encounter also serves as the latest example of the party's determination to control the media at a time when a financial downturn threatens to aggravate social tensions and several important anniversaries have made officials nervous about dissent.
Propaganda officials have cracked down on Chinese writers and journalists who signed an open letter, known as Charter '08, that calls for an end to one-party rule. More than 5,000 lawyers, activists, Nobel prize winners and leading Chinese scholars also have signed the petition. At the same time, officials have begun to see that more open reporting could be used to help quell unrest, so long as the media remain under the party's control.
"This year there is more openness in China's media, and more and more top officials support more openness," said Zhan Jiang, director of the journalism school at the China Youth University for Political Sciences.
"But the recent tense situation in the media may be caused by concerns about the current economic crisis, which is much worse than expected, and about the 20th anniversary of the June 4th incident next year," Zhan said, referring to the Tiananmen massacre.
In the summer, China hosted the Olympic Games, which showcased a modern, prosperous nation but also highlighted a repressive government unwilling to tolerate dissent. As China celebrated 30 years of opening up and reforming its economy this month, even the Olympic motto, "One World, One Dream," with its reference to universal values, sparked a debate over whether capitalistic Western values are bad for China.
Yanhuang Chunqiu, which supports gradual democratization, published a series of articles three years ago commemorating the birthday of Hu Yaobang, a former party chief and reformer whose death sparked the Tiananmen movement. Propaganda officials responded by destroying the remaining 5,000 copies of the 50,000-circulation magazine. Hu had not been banned from mention, and central government officials eventually held a small ceremony that month rehabilitating his public image.
This time, with circulation at 80,000, Du chose a more difficult subject: former secretary general Zhao Ziyang, a reformer fired in 1989 for siding with and trying to help the student demonstrators. The piece, written by a retired top editor of the official New China News Agency, was the first positive story about Zhao to appear since 1989. Although it did not mention the Tiananmen incident, the report was seen as a direct challenge to the government's version of the massacre and of Zhao's mistakes.
And yet Du was able to challenge the propaganda officials by reminding them that a group of retired senior leaders had elected him to run the magazine.
Thanks to the Internet and the increasing commercialization of Chinese media, the public has become more demanding of reform and less tolerant of corruption. Media organizations that depend on growing circulation or reform-minded publications such as Yanhuang Chunqiu reflect that.
At the same time, central government officials have failed to narrow a widening wealth gap and stem growing unrest. Rising unemployment, falling exports and imports, and concerns about housing bubbles and a plummeting stock market have prompted officials to stress the need to guide public opinion, requiring reporters to save their most sensitive investigations for "internal reference" and urging them to report the facts about riots and protests but not the causes.
President Hu Jintao said in June that news coverage of emergency incidents should be more timely, authoritative and transparent, but he stressed the need to adhere to party propaganda. "If the media guidance is correct, it is good for the party, the country and the public," Hu said in a visit to the official People's Daily newspaper.
Although some journalists viewed the remark as a signal allowing more open reporting, others said the openness is being pushed only by individual journalists.
"There are pockets of progress and areas journalists can clearly write about that they couldn't before, such as malfeasance and local corruption, but these areas are self-created and may not be sustainable," said Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based analyst. "The whole tenor of Hu Jintao's leadership has been of centralization, and media control is part of that."
The warning to Du came as several journalists have been seized for investigating corruption or removed from their jobs for aggressive reporting.
This month, the Beijing News published security camera footage showing the arrest of a journalist with the Network News newspaper. Chief reporter Guan Jian was detained for two weeks at the behest of Shanxi public security officials without his family's knowledge, while another police department accepted a missing-person report from his relatives without telling them about his arrest.
"It is actually a terrorist act with violence and intention to fool the public," said Chang Ping, an editor at Southern Metropolis Weekly, criticizing the case in his blog.
Officials who routinely censor Internet access have also recently blocked the New York Times, the Voice of America, and Hong Kong publications Ming Pao and Asiaweek.
"What's the big deal? They are frightening themselves! They have no confidence in their regime," media commentator Li Datong, who was ousted as editor of Freezing Point, said of the officials. Li said officials stepped up trials and arrests this year, the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
In the past, local government officials at least pretended to accommodate reporters, veteran journalist Wang Keqin of the China Economic Times said. "Now . . . they pay no attention to journalists' requests for interviews or try every means to turn bad news into good or retaliate against journalists, sometimes physically," Wang said.
The reason might be that the stakes are higher, for journalists and corrupt officials, said Peter Herford, journalism professor at Shantou University in southern Guangdong province.
"There are more oxes to be gored at a higher level, and many more people are involved in this game," Herford said. "Reporters have also become more sophisticated. They're letting the easy stuff go and instead thinking, 'How do I make my mark?' If they bring down a provincial government official or part of an industry, in a sense, that's their protection."
More broadly, there has been a greater sense of openness over time, journalists said.
On Dec. 8, the Beijing News published a report accusing Shandong provincial officials of locking up in mental hospitals ordinary citizens seeking to file complaints. Allegations that the petitioners were forced to take medication were widely published in other media and prompted a critical editorial in the English-language China Daily, a broadsheet aimed at foreigners.
"Before opening and reform, there were only four pages in the official People's Daily. There were other party papers, but the pages were almost all the same. . . . Now, there are so many non-party papers, allowing different voices to be heard," said Yang Jisheng, deputy head of Yanhuang Chunqiu and a former senior correspondent for the New China News Agency. "If things are not better, how can I stand here and talk to you?"
Researcher Liu Songjie contributed to this report.
2008年12月26日星期五
美国的危机 中国的机遇
2008 年 12 月 24 日
最
新一期《外交》杂志刊登了两篇关于全球金融危机的文章，标题令人不安：一篇标题是《西方的衰落》，另一篇则是《中国模式的崛起》。
这两篇文章包含了美国当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)面临的一个严肃却又很少谈及的战略问题。金融市场的崩溃并不只是损害到了美国经济，它还让美国经济模式因此蒙羞，从而可能削弱华盛顿在全球实施影响的能力。
曾出任过美国副财长、现为Evercore Partners董事长的罗吉•阿尔特曼(Roger Altman)在第一篇文章中写道，“盎格鲁萨克逊品牌的市场资本主义”被乌云笼罩，美国金融体系被视为已经失败，这对美国的道德权威可不是好事。
Associated Press
美国财长鲍尔森与中国国家主席胡锦涛
相反地，中国却在诸多方面得到了金融危机带来的好处。实际上，由于中国金融体系受目前肆虐西方的债务问题冲击小得多，中国在实体经济上遭受的损害较小。
当然，由于对中国生产商品的消费者需求下滑，中国短期肯定会经历冲击。不过鉴于中国经济整体受损程度不大，中国的相对实力将获得壮大。拿中国积累的巨额外汇储备来说，中国现在可以动用储备，在西方经济疲软无能为力之际进行战略投资。中国还更有能力向陷入困境的其他国家伸以援手，从而赢得伙伴关系；还可以继续在全球范围直接投资大宗商品和自然资源。
在获得实际利益的同时，中国也开始扩大其政治影响力。由于发展中国家都目睹了西方金融市场的混乱动荡，他们很可能会认为中国那种中央控制的资本主义模式比美国的自由资本主义模式更有吸引力。目前的危险是，发展中国家开始向中国寻求经济发展经验，而不是像过去那样从西方取经。
普林斯顿大学历史和国际关系教授哈罗得•詹姆斯(Harold James)在《中国模式的崛起》一文中说，总而言之，我认为这意味着中国将发挥更大的影响力。
奥巴马新政府将于下个月就职，届时这些战略风险将直接摆在他们的面前。有许多途径可以减少美国利益遭受损失，但这些途径都需要避免美国就此转为内向──而且具讽刺意义的是，在与中国竞争全球影响力的同时，美国还需要和中国更为紧密地进行合作。
美国所遭受最严重的损失可能是无形的──美国经济模式蒙受的羞辱。从里根总统开始推广美国为“山巅闪光之城”开始，经历了柏林墙的倒塌和共产主义的垮台，再到美国在上世纪九十年代拉美债务危机中出手相助，以及近年来的股市热潮，美国一直在引领全球走向自由市场、开放贸易和政府较少干预经济的发展道路。
美国经济模式的推广也扩大了美国在中欧和东亚等地的影响力，这包括政治和经济两个方面。此外，这还推动了商品和资本自由流动，给美国经济带来了实利。
目前美国面临的危险是，发展中国家可能会转而遵循中国的政府掌控模式以及有管理的重商主义。尽管这一模式在中国行之有效，但也带来了全球贸易和外汇失衡问题，使得问题更加严重。
而且，考虑到发展中国家可能会试图效仿中国政府操纵贸易法规和外汇汇率的手段以保护自身市场，这可能会延长目前全球经济下滑的局面，推迟美国经济的复苏时间。
当然，面对这些风险，奥巴马政府有着一定优势。奥巴马政府应会发现自己比西欧领导人更容易施行持续性的经济刺激政策，因为西欧还面临着欧洲大陆政治制度不统一的障碍。单是作为新总统上任这一条，就是一个重建美国影响力的机会。
不过，单是这样还不能消除上述战略风险。如果美国衰落，中国就是最主要的潜在受益者。正是因为这一点，要限制经济危机的冲击，可能需要说服中国，令其相信，与借助西方的短期困境获利相比，全球经济普遍复苏会给中国带来更多的益处。
詹姆斯指出，这可能意味着美国应当努力更为直接地促使中国加入长期为西方所主宰的国际经济体系。举例说，如果七大工业国(G7)能够纳入中国，该组织讨论全球经济危机的意义就会大得多。
还可以促使中国更大程度地参与国际货币基金组织(IMF)，以此利用中国的外汇盈余加快全球经济复苏。这样做将给所有人带来益处，而不只是有利于中国人。
不过，奥巴马政府最大的挑战将是抵制美国人在时下要求将重心转向本土的自然诉求，避免美国变得更倾向于保护主义和孤立主义。那样可能只会使全球问题的后果更严重，并把更多空间留给中国。
Gerald F. Seib
（编者按：本文作者Gerald F. Seib是《华尔街日报》助理总编兼华盛顿分社执行编辑。）
最
新一期《外交》杂志刊登了两篇关于全球金融危机的文章，标题令人不安：一篇标题是《西方的衰落》，另一篇则是《中国模式的崛起》。
这两篇文章包含了美国当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)面临的一个严肃却又很少谈及的战略问题。金融市场的崩溃并不只是损害到了美国经济，它还让美国经济模式因此蒙羞，从而可能削弱华盛顿在全球实施影响的能力。
曾出任过美国副财长、现为Evercore Partners董事长的罗吉•阿尔特曼(Roger Altman)在第一篇文章中写道，“盎格鲁萨克逊品牌的市场资本主义”被乌云笼罩，美国金融体系被视为已经失败，这对美国的道德权威可不是好事。
Associated Press
美国财长鲍尔森与中国国家主席胡锦涛
相反地，中国却在诸多方面得到了金融危机带来的好处。实际上，由于中国金融体系受目前肆虐西方的债务问题冲击小得多，中国在实体经济上遭受的损害较小。
当然，由于对中国生产商品的消费者需求下滑，中国短期肯定会经历冲击。不过鉴于中国经济整体受损程度不大，中国的相对实力将获得壮大。拿中国积累的巨额外汇储备来说，中国现在可以动用储备，在西方经济疲软无能为力之际进行战略投资。中国还更有能力向陷入困境的其他国家伸以援手，从而赢得伙伴关系；还可以继续在全球范围直接投资大宗商品和自然资源。
在获得实际利益的同时，中国也开始扩大其政治影响力。由于发展中国家都目睹了西方金融市场的混乱动荡，他们很可能会认为中国那种中央控制的资本主义模式比美国的自由资本主义模式更有吸引力。目前的危险是，发展中国家开始向中国寻求经济发展经验，而不是像过去那样从西方取经。
普林斯顿大学历史和国际关系教授哈罗得•詹姆斯(Harold James)在《中国模式的崛起》一文中说，总而言之，我认为这意味着中国将发挥更大的影响力。
奥巴马新政府将于下个月就职，届时这些战略风险将直接摆在他们的面前。有许多途径可以减少美国利益遭受损失，但这些途径都需要避免美国就此转为内向──而且具讽刺意义的是，在与中国竞争全球影响力的同时，美国还需要和中国更为紧密地进行合作。
美国所遭受最严重的损失可能是无形的──美国经济模式蒙受的羞辱。从里根总统开始推广美国为“山巅闪光之城”开始，经历了柏林墙的倒塌和共产主义的垮台，再到美国在上世纪九十年代拉美债务危机中出手相助，以及近年来的股市热潮，美国一直在引领全球走向自由市场、开放贸易和政府较少干预经济的发展道路。
美国经济模式的推广也扩大了美国在中欧和东亚等地的影响力，这包括政治和经济两个方面。此外，这还推动了商品和资本自由流动，给美国经济带来了实利。
目前美国面临的危险是，发展中国家可能会转而遵循中国的政府掌控模式以及有管理的重商主义。尽管这一模式在中国行之有效，但也带来了全球贸易和外汇失衡问题，使得问题更加严重。
而且，考虑到发展中国家可能会试图效仿中国政府操纵贸易法规和外汇汇率的手段以保护自身市场，这可能会延长目前全球经济下滑的局面，推迟美国经济的复苏时间。
当然，面对这些风险，奥巴马政府有着一定优势。奥巴马政府应会发现自己比西欧领导人更容易施行持续性的经济刺激政策，因为西欧还面临着欧洲大陆政治制度不统一的障碍。单是作为新总统上任这一条，就是一个重建美国影响力的机会。
不过，单是这样还不能消除上述战略风险。如果美国衰落，中国就是最主要的潜在受益者。正是因为这一点，要限制经济危机的冲击，可能需要说服中国，令其相信，与借助西方的短期困境获利相比，全球经济普遍复苏会给中国带来更多的益处。
詹姆斯指出，这可能意味着美国应当努力更为直接地促使中国加入长期为西方所主宰的国际经济体系。举例说，如果七大工业国(G7)能够纳入中国，该组织讨论全球经济危机的意义就会大得多。
还可以促使中国更大程度地参与国际货币基金组织(IMF)，以此利用中国的外汇盈余加快全球经济复苏。这样做将给所有人带来益处，而不只是有利于中国人。
不过，奥巴马政府最大的挑战将是抵制美国人在时下要求将重心转向本土的自然诉求，避免美国变得更倾向于保护主义和孤立主义。那样可能只会使全球问题的后果更严重，并把更多空间留给中国。
Gerald F. Seib
（编者按：本文作者Gerald F. Seib是《华尔街日报》助理总编兼华盛顿分社执行编辑。）
Obama moves White House into digital era
Friday, December 26, 2008
Tech-savvy campaign teaches officials how to effectively use Internet to reach a wider audience.
David Ho / Cox News Service
Presidential addresses on YouTube. Online chats with administration officials. And millions of energized Barack Obama backers ready for the next e-mail or text message calling them to action.
It's been called White House 2.0, the first truly digital presidency. If the nascent effort succeeds, government and politics may never be the same.
Building on the president-elect's pioneering, tech-savvy campaign, his team aims to connect the incoming administration directly with citizens through Web sites, blogs and online social networks.
For Obama, the effort also promises to give him powerful new tools that can rally public support for his agenda while bypassing traditional media.
On change.gov, the Obama transition Web site, a new discussion feature invited people to form online communities that provide "instant feedback" about Obama's top issues, starting with health care.
Looking ahead to a wired White House, "our first priority is making sure that we keep the millions of people who played an integral role in the campaign engaged in the process," Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. "We also recognize now that we have a much larger audience to include: people who didn't vote or didn't vote for us."
Obama's 21-month campaign was an Internet powerhouse, raising more than $500 million from 3 million online donors, his team says. Those donations, the vast majority of them in increments of $100 or less, accounted for the bulk of the more than $750 million his campaign raised.
The online organizing of supporters and volunteers also had unmatched scale. The campaign's e-mail list contains about 13 million addresses. Another 1 million people signed up to receive campaign text messages, such as those that announced Joe Biden as the vice presidential pick and mobilized supporters on Election Day.
The campaign's social network, MyBarackObama.com, or MyBO, includes 2 million profiles and about 400,000 blog posts. About 5 million supporters signed up on other social networks, with more than 3 million on Facebook.
"The lesson every elected official should take away from the Obama campaign's use of social media is that the Internet has now flipped the entire campaign process around and put individual voters truly in charge of the information they receive," said Republican Congressman John Culberson of Houston, who uses online networking tools such as Twitter.
While Obama's team is working to bring its online experience to governing, restrictions prohibit the White House from using the campaign e-mail list. The list's future use, possibly through the Democratic National Committee or a re-election organization, is still being decided.
Tech-savvy campaign teaches officials how to effectively use Internet to reach a wider audience.
David Ho / Cox News Service
Presidential addresses on YouTube. Online chats with administration officials. And millions of energized Barack Obama backers ready for the next e-mail or text message calling them to action.
It's been called White House 2.0, the first truly digital presidency. If the nascent effort succeeds, government and politics may never be the same.
Building on the president-elect's pioneering, tech-savvy campaign, his team aims to connect the incoming administration directly with citizens through Web sites, blogs and online social networks.
For Obama, the effort also promises to give him powerful new tools that can rally public support for his agenda while bypassing traditional media.
On change.gov, the Obama transition Web site, a new discussion feature invited people to form online communities that provide "instant feedback" about Obama's top issues, starting with health care.
Looking ahead to a wired White House, "our first priority is making sure that we keep the millions of people who played an integral role in the campaign engaged in the process," Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. "We also recognize now that we have a much larger audience to include: people who didn't vote or didn't vote for us."
Obama's 21-month campaign was an Internet powerhouse, raising more than $500 million from 3 million online donors, his team says. Those donations, the vast majority of them in increments of $100 or less, accounted for the bulk of the more than $750 million his campaign raised.
The online organizing of supporters and volunteers also had unmatched scale. The campaign's e-mail list contains about 13 million addresses. Another 1 million people signed up to receive campaign text messages, such as those that announced Joe Biden as the vice presidential pick and mobilized supporters on Election Day.
The campaign's social network, MyBarackObama.com, or MyBO, includes 2 million profiles and about 400,000 blog posts. About 5 million supporters signed up on other social networks, with more than 3 million on Facebook.
"The lesson every elected official should take away from the Obama campaign's use of social media is that the Internet has now flipped the entire campaign process around and put individual voters truly in charge of the information they receive," said Republican Congressman John Culberson of Houston, who uses online networking tools such as Twitter.
While Obama's team is working to bring its online experience to governing, restrictions prohibit the White House from using the campaign e-mail list. The list's future use, possibly through the Democratic National Committee or a re-election organization, is still being decided.
2008年12月25日星期四
Ford's success tops industry wish list
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Daniel Howes
The headline jumped off the page: "Ford Fusion is hybrid champ."
Now that's what we're talking about, Detroit, a new model coming from the Motor City that potentially outperforms, outshines and out-greens the foreign-owned competition -- and stands as an incontrovertible rebuke to the Detroit-can't-do-it crowd in Congress and around the country.
"The buzz you see -- that Ford's different, they've got a plan, they're working it" -- is exhilarating to Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally, he told me Wednesday. "I still believe we're one-and-a-half to two years ahead of where anyone thought we'd be. The only thing we're fighting is the external situation" of an economy slipping deeper into recession and the possibility of rival General Motors Corp. ending up in Chapter 11.
Yes, today is Christmas Day. Yes, we're all beyond weary with talk of bankruptcy and bailouts, haircuts for bondholders and concessions for the United Auto Workers, elimination of brands, closing of dealers, shuttering of plants and central control of a business that government thinks it understands. But doesn't.
So here's a Christmas wish list for an industry poised to enter what's arguably the three most pivotal months of its 100-year history:
First, that Ford's we're-different-from-the-rest schtick will stand up, will be bolstered by new products to be launched next year and will gain traction among would-be buyers. More, that Detroit's No. 2 automaker will avoid being forced to access federal money and to accede to silly political conditions driven more by politics than business.
Second, that GM will execute the most crucial business plan in its post-war history without surrendering its independence or destroying the underlying value of its remaining brands. No simple task, that. Rick Wagoner & Co. are pledged essentially to deliver a bankruptcy-style restructuring outside of bankruptcy -- the final chance to answer legions of skeptics.
Third, that someone in the new Democratic Congress or the Obama White House will realize the absurd folly of dictating product decisions for Detroit's automakers with no regard for market demand or oil prices. Won't work, unless the goal is wanton destruction of taxpayer capital to score points with narrow special interests (which it partly is).
Fourth, while we're on Washington, that United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger will realize that playing the victim card in the can-we-avoid-bankruptcy talks will be a loser in the Bigger America. Blaming the meanie GOP won't help his union or Detroit's beleaguered two -- GM and Chrysler LLC -- stay alive.
Fifth, that Congress and Team Obama will consider tax incentives for the purchase of new cars and trucks in the massive stimulus package now in the works. If the goal is to spur economic activity -- and it is -- selling more metal would help the automakers, ease the burden on the federal loan lifeline and juice local economies across the country.
Sixth, that the deep troubles afflicting Detroit's auto giants will prod Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and the state Legislature to get serious about structural reform come January. However, when the automakers emerge from this crucible -- and they will, in some form -- the state's revenue and per-capita income outlook will be dramatically different than it is now, let alone what it was.
Finally, that the wags outside the Detroit Bubble would remember that those facing this Grand Reckoning are real people, too. They have children, mortgages and dreams; they've been poorly served by leaders who didn't lead, who denied the reality of their predicaments, who mostly avoided radical change until they had no choice.
Reveling in their discomfort is the worst kind of Schadenfreude, especially at a time of year when joy shouldn't come at the expense of others.
Daniel Howes
The headline jumped off the page: "Ford Fusion is hybrid champ."
Now that's what we're talking about, Detroit, a new model coming from the Motor City that potentially outperforms, outshines and out-greens the foreign-owned competition -- and stands as an incontrovertible rebuke to the Detroit-can't-do-it crowd in Congress and around the country.
"The buzz you see -- that Ford's different, they've got a plan, they're working it" -- is exhilarating to Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally, he told me Wednesday. "I still believe we're one-and-a-half to two years ahead of where anyone thought we'd be. The only thing we're fighting is the external situation" of an economy slipping deeper into recession and the possibility of rival General Motors Corp. ending up in Chapter 11.
Yes, today is Christmas Day. Yes, we're all beyond weary with talk of bankruptcy and bailouts, haircuts for bondholders and concessions for the United Auto Workers, elimination of brands, closing of dealers, shuttering of plants and central control of a business that government thinks it understands. But doesn't.
So here's a Christmas wish list for an industry poised to enter what's arguably the three most pivotal months of its 100-year history:
First, that Ford's we're-different-from-the-rest schtick will stand up, will be bolstered by new products to be launched next year and will gain traction among would-be buyers. More, that Detroit's No. 2 automaker will avoid being forced to access federal money and to accede to silly political conditions driven more by politics than business.
Second, that GM will execute the most crucial business plan in its post-war history without surrendering its independence or destroying the underlying value of its remaining brands. No simple task, that. Rick Wagoner & Co. are pledged essentially to deliver a bankruptcy-style restructuring outside of bankruptcy -- the final chance to answer legions of skeptics.
Third, that someone in the new Democratic Congress or the Obama White House will realize the absurd folly of dictating product decisions for Detroit's automakers with no regard for market demand or oil prices. Won't work, unless the goal is wanton destruction of taxpayer capital to score points with narrow special interests (which it partly is).
Fourth, while we're on Washington, that United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger will realize that playing the victim card in the can-we-avoid-bankruptcy talks will be a loser in the Bigger America. Blaming the meanie GOP won't help his union or Detroit's beleaguered two -- GM and Chrysler LLC -- stay alive.
Fifth, that Congress and Team Obama will consider tax incentives for the purchase of new cars and trucks in the massive stimulus package now in the works. If the goal is to spur economic activity -- and it is -- selling more metal would help the automakers, ease the burden on the federal loan lifeline and juice local economies across the country.
Sixth, that the deep troubles afflicting Detroit's auto giants will prod Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and the state Legislature to get serious about structural reform come January. However, when the automakers emerge from this crucible -- and they will, in some form -- the state's revenue and per-capita income outlook will be dramatically different than it is now, let alone what it was.
Finally, that the wags outside the Detroit Bubble would remember that those facing this Grand Reckoning are real people, too. They have children, mortgages and dreams; they've been poorly served by leaders who didn't lead, who denied the reality of their predicaments, who mostly avoided radical change until they had no choice.
Reveling in their discomfort is the worst kind of Schadenfreude, especially at a time of year when joy shouldn't come at the expense of others.
2008年12月24日星期三
China's Capital Cases Still Secret, Arbitrary
By Maureen Fan and Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 24, 2008; A01
BEIJING -- Compared with murder and other violent crimes, the charges against Wo Weihan seemed minor, if a little exotic: copying articles from missile technology magazines in a public library, buying four night-vision equipment scopes, gathering information about the health of senior government leaders and collecting documents from a local Communist Party conference.
Yet the once-respected scientist with his own medical research laboratory in the capital was branded a spy and executed last month after a closed trial. His is one of several recent executions that highlight the secrecy, lack of due process and uneven application of the law that continue to surround capital cases two years after China embarked on a radical overhaul of the way it handles the death penalty.
Starting in 2007, China began for the first time in more than two decades to require a final review of every capital case by the Supreme People's Court. The hope was to reduce the number of executions and bring some consistency to a process that had been handled unevenly by lower courts. The former president of the Supreme People's Court who pushed for the review, Xiao Yang, vowed that the death penalty would be used only on "extremely vile criminals."
As a result of its reforms, China says, the Supreme People's Court overturned about 15 percent of the death sentences handed down by high courts in the first half of 2008. In a brief report in May, the New China News Agency quoted anonymous sources as saying Chinese courts handed down 30 percent fewer death sentences last year compared with 2006. But in a largely closed legal system directed by party committees, the changes have not been as far-reaching as the statistics suggest, and consistency remains a distant goal.
Defendants on death row continue to be executed for such nonviolent crimes as illegal fundraising, graft, drug dealing and espionage. They are prosecuted and dispatched with a lack of transparency, according to Chinese lawyers who complain of blocked access to their clients and say many confessions are still coerced.
There are also double standards: Public officials accused of embezzling millions receive suspended death sentences that spare their lives, while ordinary citizens convicted of stealing far less die by lethal injection or a single gunshot to the head, according to lawyers and court records.
China remains the world's top executioner -- the Dui Hua Foundation, a human rights group, estimates that China carried out 5,000 to 6,000 executions in 2007. The same year, the United States executed 42 people. On a per-capita basis, China is estimated to have carried out 30 times the number of executions the United States did.
The Chinese government has a long-standing policy of not commenting on the death penalty and keeps the number of executions secret. There was no response to a fax and phone calls to the Supreme People's Court, the Ministry of Justice and public security officials.
In March, the head of the First Criminal Law Court of the Supreme People's Court, Huang Ermei, said the death penalty was an appropriate deterrent for a country with such fast development and rising crime. Although attitudes were changing among lawyers and academics, the death penalty is "deeply rooted in people's mentality," she said in a report on the Web site of the New China News Agency. "For now, conditions are not ripe for China to abolish the death penalty, not even for a longer period of time," she wrote.
'Shut Her Up by Death'
Prominent Chinese academics have urged Beijing in recent years to abolish the death penalty for nonviolent crimes to bring China in line with international conventions on human rights, said Liu Renwen, a deputy director of the department of criminal law at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The discrepancy in legal treatment between public officials and those without connections has furthered calls for reform. Although ordinary Chinese may get the death penalty for financial crimes, public officials are more likely to get a lighter sentence -- even when the money involved in their cases is significantly more. "There have been fewer and fewer death penalties for corrupt officials. Compared with these cases, it seems unfair to sentence illegal fundraisers to the death penalty," Liu said.
For instance, Zhu Junyi, the chief of Shanghai's Labor and Social Security Bureau, was convicted in March of accepting bribes and misusing public funds. A judge ruled that Zhu diverted $2.3 billion in government money. He was sentenced to 18 years in prison.
The same month, Du Yimin, 43, owner of a beauty parlor in the eastern province of Zhejiang, was convicted of illegally collecting $100 million from the public for investment schemes that fell apart. The money involved in Du's case was less than 5 percent of that in Zhu's case. Her sentence: the death penalty.
"The difference between him and my sister is that she's only an ordinary citizen," said Du's brother, Du Jianmin, 44, an engineer in a local government construction bureau.
In other recent cases, defendants were executed on the basis of charges that involved even less stolen money.
In March, bank workers Ren Xiaofeng, 34, and Ma Xiangjing, 37 -- who purchased about $6.4 million in lottery tickets with money they took from their employer's vaults -- were executed in Hebei province. And in February 2007, Liu Jianghua, 31, a former accountant at the Agricultural Bank in Yunnan province, was executed for embezzling about $1.19 million that he spent mostly on online soccer gambling.
Meanwhile, public officials convicted of similar crimes often receive what is called "death with a two-year reprieve," or a suspended death sentence. In reality, with two years of good behavior, these sentences are commuted and convicts are allowed to leave prison on probation in as little as 14 years. They can also be released on bail for medical treatment at any time.
Du's case has triggered public outrage because of the contrast between her sentence and that of Shanghai government official Zhu. The two were sentenced one day apart. Du, who remains in wrist and ankle shackles in a government prison, is appealing.
As the story goes, Du's troubles began when she tried to expand her business beyond the beauty salon she owned in Lishui town in eastern China.
She had opened the salon in 1995 out of desperation. Her husband, whom she met while both were working at the same fertilizer factory, had abandoned her and their son. Du, who left school after junior high, was determined to provide a better life for her son and hoped to use profits from the salon for his college education. As the town became wealthier, so did she. From 2003 to 2006, she invited 67 families in the region to participate in a fund she had created to invest in real estate, cosmetics and mining. She raised more than $100 million and promised monthly interest of 1.8 to 10 percent, depending on the amount investors contributed.
Prosecutors accused her of tricking investors and spending the money in a shopping spree, buying apartments, cars, clothes, handbags and other luxury items. She asked investors to recruit other investors, they said, using the new money to pay back the earlier investors in a pyramid scheme that collapsed when the funds ran out and a bank loan she had applied for to keep the ruse going was denied.
The sentencing document said so much money was involved that there was "enormous social harm." Du's family says she was an honest if naive woman who made some bad investments. "She was so air-headed that she returned the money to some investors but she didn't even ask for a receipt back," Du's brother said.
Investors included the wives of public officials, who were customers at Du's upscale salon. Du's mother, Lu Suying, 71, said some powerful people wanted "to shut her up by death."
Circumstantial Evidence
Wo Weihan's case was the subject of intense lobbying last month by international diplomats, who angered China by saying that Wo had not had a fair trial.
After denying Wo access to a lawyer for 10 months, the government told his attorney that the evidence and even the full extent of the charges against him were state secrets that could not be shared with anyone, not even Wo's family. There were signs that the man who enjoyed flying kites in Tiananmen Square and hiking along the Great Wall might have been mistreated while in custody, his family said: Wo had no history of health problems, but the 60-year-old suffered a stroke during the first few weeks after his arrest. He was convicted in two hearings that were closed to the public, based on a confession his family says he recanted. He was sentenced to death in May 2007.
Wo's career had begun with promise. After receiving a master's degree from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wo moved with his family to Munich, where he received a doctorate in 1991, and then to Austria, where he lived until 1997. He set up a joint-venture biotechnology company in Beijing that later went public and Beijing Bei Yi Ke Tai Medicine Carrier Technology Co. in 1999, for which he was chief scientist. In his spare time, he enjoyed reading science magazines and articles about biochemistry. On Jan. 19, 2005, he returned home to find men from the Ministry of National Security, who took him to a detention center. After suffering the stroke in custody on Feb. 6, Wo was allowed to recuperate under house arrest. He was picked up again in March. The lawyer the family hired in April was not able to meet Wo until January 2006.
Wo was accused of working for a Taiwan-based spy organization known as the Grand Union of Unifying China With Three People's Principles. But two military analysts in Taiwan said the group was not a spy ring but a nongovernmental organization set up more than 20 years ago to give financial support to dissidents, including those who protested in Tiananmen Square in 1989. It no longer has ties to the government of Taiwan or the ruling party, said Alexander Huang, director of strategic studies at the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University, and Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.
The evidence against Wo that is supplied in the final verdict appears circumstantial at best: Wo's contacts book contained the numbers and addresses of the Grand Union group and some of its members; a witness saw Wo photocopying periodicals in the library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Wo received part of a draft design for a missile targeting device; and Wo and his wife had repeatedly visited the home of his co-defendant, whose work involved the research and production of missile targeting devices.
Additional proof was found in a business trip Wo took to Nanjing in 1995, in his directions to his wife to delete e-mails and in testimony from a mysterious man named Min who said he and Wo may have talked about the health of senior leaders. His family members do not recognize the man described in the verdict, and they say they know of no Taiwan connection.
Late last month, they was allowed to visit Wo for the first time since the case began, leading them to conclude that execution was imminent. "He was very happy to see us since he hasn't seen anyone in our family for four years," said Wo's daughter Ran Chen, 31, an Austrian citizen. "He again repeatedly told me that he is innocent and that the conviction is not correct."
Wo told his family he still had confidence in the Chinese justice system.
He was executed the next morning, despite a promised second family visit. He died a convicted spy, even though he said he had signed a confession only because security officials promised he would not be prosecuted if he did so.
"It's very hard to picture my father in this role," his daughter said. "But the problem is not what do I believe but what can the court prove. And the lack of information and misinformation wasn't humane. It was devastating, just devastating."
Cha reported from Shanghai and Lishui, China. Special correspondent Jane Rickards in Taipei and researcher Crissie Ding in Shanghai contributed to this report.
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 24, 2008; A01
BEIJING -- Compared with murder and other violent crimes, the charges against Wo Weihan seemed minor, if a little exotic: copying articles from missile technology magazines in a public library, buying four night-vision equipment scopes, gathering information about the health of senior government leaders and collecting documents from a local Communist Party conference.
Yet the once-respected scientist with his own medical research laboratory in the capital was branded a spy and executed last month after a closed trial. His is one of several recent executions that highlight the secrecy, lack of due process and uneven application of the law that continue to surround capital cases two years after China embarked on a radical overhaul of the way it handles the death penalty.
Starting in 2007, China began for the first time in more than two decades to require a final review of every capital case by the Supreme People's Court. The hope was to reduce the number of executions and bring some consistency to a process that had been handled unevenly by lower courts. The former president of the Supreme People's Court who pushed for the review, Xiao Yang, vowed that the death penalty would be used only on "extremely vile criminals."
As a result of its reforms, China says, the Supreme People's Court overturned about 15 percent of the death sentences handed down by high courts in the first half of 2008. In a brief report in May, the New China News Agency quoted anonymous sources as saying Chinese courts handed down 30 percent fewer death sentences last year compared with 2006. But in a largely closed legal system directed by party committees, the changes have not been as far-reaching as the statistics suggest, and consistency remains a distant goal.
Defendants on death row continue to be executed for such nonviolent crimes as illegal fundraising, graft, drug dealing and espionage. They are prosecuted and dispatched with a lack of transparency, according to Chinese lawyers who complain of blocked access to their clients and say many confessions are still coerced.
There are also double standards: Public officials accused of embezzling millions receive suspended death sentences that spare their lives, while ordinary citizens convicted of stealing far less die by lethal injection or a single gunshot to the head, according to lawyers and court records.
China remains the world's top executioner -- the Dui Hua Foundation, a human rights group, estimates that China carried out 5,000 to 6,000 executions in 2007. The same year, the United States executed 42 people. On a per-capita basis, China is estimated to have carried out 30 times the number of executions the United States did.
The Chinese government has a long-standing policy of not commenting on the death penalty and keeps the number of executions secret. There was no response to a fax and phone calls to the Supreme People's Court, the Ministry of Justice and public security officials.
In March, the head of the First Criminal Law Court of the Supreme People's Court, Huang Ermei, said the death penalty was an appropriate deterrent for a country with such fast development and rising crime. Although attitudes were changing among lawyers and academics, the death penalty is "deeply rooted in people's mentality," she said in a report on the Web site of the New China News Agency. "For now, conditions are not ripe for China to abolish the death penalty, not even for a longer period of time," she wrote.
'Shut Her Up by Death'
Prominent Chinese academics have urged Beijing in recent years to abolish the death penalty for nonviolent crimes to bring China in line with international conventions on human rights, said Liu Renwen, a deputy director of the department of criminal law at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The discrepancy in legal treatment between public officials and those without connections has furthered calls for reform. Although ordinary Chinese may get the death penalty for financial crimes, public officials are more likely to get a lighter sentence -- even when the money involved in their cases is significantly more. "There have been fewer and fewer death penalties for corrupt officials. Compared with these cases, it seems unfair to sentence illegal fundraisers to the death penalty," Liu said.
For instance, Zhu Junyi, the chief of Shanghai's Labor and Social Security Bureau, was convicted in March of accepting bribes and misusing public funds. A judge ruled that Zhu diverted $2.3 billion in government money. He was sentenced to 18 years in prison.
The same month, Du Yimin, 43, owner of a beauty parlor in the eastern province of Zhejiang, was convicted of illegally collecting $100 million from the public for investment schemes that fell apart. The money involved in Du's case was less than 5 percent of that in Zhu's case. Her sentence: the death penalty.
"The difference between him and my sister is that she's only an ordinary citizen," said Du's brother, Du Jianmin, 44, an engineer in a local government construction bureau.
In other recent cases, defendants were executed on the basis of charges that involved even less stolen money.
In March, bank workers Ren Xiaofeng, 34, and Ma Xiangjing, 37 -- who purchased about $6.4 million in lottery tickets with money they took from their employer's vaults -- were executed in Hebei province. And in February 2007, Liu Jianghua, 31, a former accountant at the Agricultural Bank in Yunnan province, was executed for embezzling about $1.19 million that he spent mostly on online soccer gambling.
Meanwhile, public officials convicted of similar crimes often receive what is called "death with a two-year reprieve," or a suspended death sentence. In reality, with two years of good behavior, these sentences are commuted and convicts are allowed to leave prison on probation in as little as 14 years. They can also be released on bail for medical treatment at any time.
Du's case has triggered public outrage because of the contrast between her sentence and that of Shanghai government official Zhu. The two were sentenced one day apart. Du, who remains in wrist and ankle shackles in a government prison, is appealing.
As the story goes, Du's troubles began when she tried to expand her business beyond the beauty salon she owned in Lishui town in eastern China.
She had opened the salon in 1995 out of desperation. Her husband, whom she met while both were working at the same fertilizer factory, had abandoned her and their son. Du, who left school after junior high, was determined to provide a better life for her son and hoped to use profits from the salon for his college education. As the town became wealthier, so did she. From 2003 to 2006, she invited 67 families in the region to participate in a fund she had created to invest in real estate, cosmetics and mining. She raised more than $100 million and promised monthly interest of 1.8 to 10 percent, depending on the amount investors contributed.
Prosecutors accused her of tricking investors and spending the money in a shopping spree, buying apartments, cars, clothes, handbags and other luxury items. She asked investors to recruit other investors, they said, using the new money to pay back the earlier investors in a pyramid scheme that collapsed when the funds ran out and a bank loan she had applied for to keep the ruse going was denied.
The sentencing document said so much money was involved that there was "enormous social harm." Du's family says she was an honest if naive woman who made some bad investments. "She was so air-headed that she returned the money to some investors but she didn't even ask for a receipt back," Du's brother said.
Investors included the wives of public officials, who were customers at Du's upscale salon. Du's mother, Lu Suying, 71, said some powerful people wanted "to shut her up by death."
Circumstantial Evidence
Wo Weihan's case was the subject of intense lobbying last month by international diplomats, who angered China by saying that Wo had not had a fair trial.
After denying Wo access to a lawyer for 10 months, the government told his attorney that the evidence and even the full extent of the charges against him were state secrets that could not be shared with anyone, not even Wo's family. There were signs that the man who enjoyed flying kites in Tiananmen Square and hiking along the Great Wall might have been mistreated while in custody, his family said: Wo had no history of health problems, but the 60-year-old suffered a stroke during the first few weeks after his arrest. He was convicted in two hearings that were closed to the public, based on a confession his family says he recanted. He was sentenced to death in May 2007.
Wo's career had begun with promise. After receiving a master's degree from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wo moved with his family to Munich, where he received a doctorate in 1991, and then to Austria, where he lived until 1997. He set up a joint-venture biotechnology company in Beijing that later went public and Beijing Bei Yi Ke Tai Medicine Carrier Technology Co. in 1999, for which he was chief scientist. In his spare time, he enjoyed reading science magazines and articles about biochemistry. On Jan. 19, 2005, he returned home to find men from the Ministry of National Security, who took him to a detention center. After suffering the stroke in custody on Feb. 6, Wo was allowed to recuperate under house arrest. He was picked up again in March. The lawyer the family hired in April was not able to meet Wo until January 2006.
Wo was accused of working for a Taiwan-based spy organization known as the Grand Union of Unifying China With Three People's Principles. But two military analysts in Taiwan said the group was not a spy ring but a nongovernmental organization set up more than 20 years ago to give financial support to dissidents, including those who protested in Tiananmen Square in 1989. It no longer has ties to the government of Taiwan or the ruling party, said Alexander Huang, director of strategic studies at the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University, and Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.
The evidence against Wo that is supplied in the final verdict appears circumstantial at best: Wo's contacts book contained the numbers and addresses of the Grand Union group and some of its members; a witness saw Wo photocopying periodicals in the library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Wo received part of a draft design for a missile targeting device; and Wo and his wife had repeatedly visited the home of his co-defendant, whose work involved the research and production of missile targeting devices.
Additional proof was found in a business trip Wo took to Nanjing in 1995, in his directions to his wife to delete e-mails and in testimony from a mysterious man named Min who said he and Wo may have talked about the health of senior leaders. His family members do not recognize the man described in the verdict, and they say they know of no Taiwan connection.
Late last month, they was allowed to visit Wo for the first time since the case began, leading them to conclude that execution was imminent. "He was very happy to see us since he hasn't seen anyone in our family for four years," said Wo's daughter Ran Chen, 31, an Austrian citizen. "He again repeatedly told me that he is innocent and that the conviction is not correct."
Wo told his family he still had confidence in the Chinese justice system.
He was executed the next morning, despite a promised second family visit. He died a convicted spy, even though he said he had signed a confession only because security officials promised he would not be prosecuted if he did so.
"It's very hard to picture my father in this role," his daughter said. "But the problem is not what do I believe but what can the court prove. And the lack of information and misinformation wasn't humane. It was devastating, just devastating."
Cha reported from Shanghai and Lishui, China. Special correspondent Jane Rickards in Taipei and researcher Crissie Ding in Shanghai contributed to this report.
2008年12月23日星期二
Car rental companies raise rates, cut workers
By Gary Stoller, USA TODAY
To many frequent renters, it's obvious that the economic slump has hit the car rental industry.
Business travelers say they're receiving cars with more miles on their odometers and less maintenance. They also say rates are rising, and there's less staff to handle check-in and checkout.
With fewer renters, rental car companies are eliminating jobs and closing some off-airport rental locations.
"These are troubling times in the industry," says Chris Brown, managing editor of trade publication Auto Rental News.
Among recent developments:
•Avis Budget Group this month eliminated 2,200 jobs — about 7% of its employees — to help reduce costs $150 million to $200 million annually. Hertz says it laid off 2,000 workers this year, and Dollar Thrifty, Enterprise, National and Alamo also reduced their workforces in recent months.
•Hertz reported that net income dropped 94% to $63 million during the first nine months this year. There also was a 2% drop in the number of days its cars were rented.
•Advantage Rent A Car, which bills itself as "one of America's fastest-growing car rental companies," announced on Dec. 8 that it filed for bankruptcy reorganization in federal bankruptcy court. The company also said that rentals are no longer available at most of its 48 U.S. locations.
•A Standard & Poor's research report released in late November said Dollar Thrifty "appears to be the most likely" of the big rental companies to file for protection from creditors in bankruptcy court. A Dollar Thrifty bankruptcy filing "might even result in a liquidation," the report said.
Dollar Thrifty declined to comment.
Rental car consultants and analysts tell USA TODAY that they don't expect any of the big brands to disappear. "It's not likely to happen," says John Healy of FTN Midwest Securities.
Car rental companies, however, "realize the frailty of the industry's health," Healy said in an industry report this month, and should continue to reduce their workforces and fleets.
The companies should also continue to "shutter underperforming locations, purchase fewer vehicles, hold vehicles longer to reduce expense and push through price increases," he said.
Auto rental companies are keeping vehicles in their fleets longer, because the used car market is weak and their resale values are low, Healy says.
Richard Leck, a management consultant in Bedford, N.H., says he's rented more than 50 times this year and several times received cars with 29,000 to 35,000 miles on their odometers.
Another frequent renter, Robert Milk, says he seldom gets a car with fewer than 20,000 miles on the odometer.
"I remember the days when over 6,000 was unusual," says the management consultant from Glen Allen, Va.
Hertz, Avis Budget and Dollar Thrifty did not answer USA TODAY questions about the economic downturn's effect on the age of their fleets.
Enterprise Vice President Pat Farrell says the average age of the company's vehicles is seven months, and they average 14,000 miles. The averages include the vehicles of National, Alamo and their parent company, Enterprise.
Until recently, the company sold its vehicles after 11 months in service and about 22,000 miles, he says.
But the economic downturn and the "difficult used car market" have caused Enterprise to hold onto cars until they have been driven an average of 26,000 miles.
Leck says that in the past few months, several cars he's rented had problems. Two cars from Hertz displayed warning lights, about a transmission problem and improper tire inflation. Other Hertz cars had a flat tire before he left the lot, an empty gas tank and an inoperative blinker. An Alamo car had an inoperative gas gauge, he says.
Milk, who rents primarily from Avis, says he's noticed "lots of road damage on cars," including cracked windshields and large dents and scrapes.
He says cars are dirtier than in the past, and he often receives cars with hazy interior windshields.
Enterprise spokeswoman Laura Bryant says every car the company rents isn't perfect, but the company prides itself on supplying clean and well-maintained cars.
In a November study of airport car renters by J.D. Power and Associates, Enterprise ranked first in customer satisfaction for the fifth-consecutive year. Hertz ranked second and Alamo third.
The study also concluded that customer satisfaction with renting cars at airports "has declined considerably" as "consumers and the travel industry face increasing financial pressures brought on by the sluggish economy."
Besides the weak economy, demand for rental cars has dropped because there are fewer airline passengers to rent cars at airports, and corporations have reduced business travel, says the Standard & Poor's report by analyst Betsy Snyder.
The car rental companies have also been hurt by their fleet-acquisition policies.
In the past, car rental companies bought most vehicles under repurchase programs that allowed them to sell the vehicles back to manufacturers in a relatively short period, Snyder says. But now the car rental companies buy about half their vehicles without such programs and must sell them on the used car market.
"It appears that things may get more bleak before they get better," says Christina Woo, a research analyst at Soleil Securities.
Auto rental consultant Neil Abrams says it's a "somewhat painful" time in the industry, but he's optimistic.
Car rental companies also experienced tough times during the past three decades, he says, but "Every time, the industry has come out smarter and stronger."
To many frequent renters, it's obvious that the economic slump has hit the car rental industry.
Business travelers say they're receiving cars with more miles on their odometers and less maintenance. They also say rates are rising, and there's less staff to handle check-in and checkout.
With fewer renters, rental car companies are eliminating jobs and closing some off-airport rental locations.
"These are troubling times in the industry," says Chris Brown, managing editor of trade publication Auto Rental News.
Among recent developments:
•Avis Budget Group this month eliminated 2,200 jobs — about 7% of its employees — to help reduce costs $150 million to $200 million annually. Hertz says it laid off 2,000 workers this year, and Dollar Thrifty, Enterprise, National and Alamo also reduced their workforces in recent months.
•Hertz reported that net income dropped 94% to $63 million during the first nine months this year. There also was a 2% drop in the number of days its cars were rented.
•Advantage Rent A Car, which bills itself as "one of America's fastest-growing car rental companies," announced on Dec. 8 that it filed for bankruptcy reorganization in federal bankruptcy court. The company also said that rentals are no longer available at most of its 48 U.S. locations.
•A Standard & Poor's research report released in late November said Dollar Thrifty "appears to be the most likely" of the big rental companies to file for protection from creditors in bankruptcy court. A Dollar Thrifty bankruptcy filing "might even result in a liquidation," the report said.
Dollar Thrifty declined to comment.
Rental car consultants and analysts tell USA TODAY that they don't expect any of the big brands to disappear. "It's not likely to happen," says John Healy of FTN Midwest Securities.
Car rental companies, however, "realize the frailty of the industry's health," Healy said in an industry report this month, and should continue to reduce their workforces and fleets.
The companies should also continue to "shutter underperforming locations, purchase fewer vehicles, hold vehicles longer to reduce expense and push through price increases," he said.
Auto rental companies are keeping vehicles in their fleets longer, because the used car market is weak and their resale values are low, Healy says.
Richard Leck, a management consultant in Bedford, N.H., says he's rented more than 50 times this year and several times received cars with 29,000 to 35,000 miles on their odometers.
Another frequent renter, Robert Milk, says he seldom gets a car with fewer than 20,000 miles on the odometer.
"I remember the days when over 6,000 was unusual," says the management consultant from Glen Allen, Va.
Hertz, Avis Budget and Dollar Thrifty did not answer USA TODAY questions about the economic downturn's effect on the age of their fleets.
Enterprise Vice President Pat Farrell says the average age of the company's vehicles is seven months, and they average 14,000 miles. The averages include the vehicles of National, Alamo and their parent company, Enterprise.
Until recently, the company sold its vehicles after 11 months in service and about 22,000 miles, he says.
But the economic downturn and the "difficult used car market" have caused Enterprise to hold onto cars until they have been driven an average of 26,000 miles.
Leck says that in the past few months, several cars he's rented had problems. Two cars from Hertz displayed warning lights, about a transmission problem and improper tire inflation. Other Hertz cars had a flat tire before he left the lot, an empty gas tank and an inoperative blinker. An Alamo car had an inoperative gas gauge, he says.
Milk, who rents primarily from Avis, says he's noticed "lots of road damage on cars," including cracked windshields and large dents and scrapes.
He says cars are dirtier than in the past, and he often receives cars with hazy interior windshields.
Enterprise spokeswoman Laura Bryant says every car the company rents isn't perfect, but the company prides itself on supplying clean and well-maintained cars.
In a November study of airport car renters by J.D. Power and Associates, Enterprise ranked first in customer satisfaction for the fifth-consecutive year. Hertz ranked second and Alamo third.
The study also concluded that customer satisfaction with renting cars at airports "has declined considerably" as "consumers and the travel industry face increasing financial pressures brought on by the sluggish economy."
Besides the weak economy, demand for rental cars has dropped because there are fewer airline passengers to rent cars at airports, and corporations have reduced business travel, says the Standard & Poor's report by analyst Betsy Snyder.
The car rental companies have also been hurt by their fleet-acquisition policies.
In the past, car rental companies bought most vehicles under repurchase programs that allowed them to sell the vehicles back to manufacturers in a relatively short period, Snyder says. But now the car rental companies buy about half their vehicles without such programs and must sell them on the used car market.
"It appears that things may get more bleak before they get better," says Christina Woo, a research analyst at Soleil Securities.
Auto rental consultant Neil Abrams says it's a "somewhat painful" time in the industry, but he's optimistic.
Car rental companies also experienced tough times during the past three decades, he says, but "Every time, the industry has come out smarter and stronger."
改革30年成就(山寨版)
1，1978年大米为0.12元每斤。现在为1.60元每斤。上涨了13.33倍。
2，大白菜当年0.02元每斤。现在为0.6元每斤。上涨了30倍。
3，最普通的一双皮鞋的使用年限。1978年为5年，2008年平均使用年限为1年。使用寿命下降5
倍。
4，培养一名大学生。1978年从小学到大学学费为140元。现在从小学到大学要150000元。上涨
了1071倍。
5，房价。当年100平每月扣房租1.2元。现在100平每月房贷2500元。上涨了2083倍。
6，环境污染。按国际马里克期指数，1978年污染指数为0.98。2008年污染指数为1580。污染
指数上涨了1612倍。
7，牛奶里三聚氰胺含量。1978年为0。2008年为380MG。上涨倍数为无穷大。
8，感冒发烧的治病费用。1978年为0.98元。2008年平均为90元。上涨倍数为91倍。
9，住院一天空床位费用。1978年为0.78元。2008年为200.8元。上涨倍数为257元。
10，最大贪污金额。1978年为19780元。是深圳一个管理进出口的官创记录的。2008年最大依
法金额为200800000元。上涨倍数为10151倍。
11，官员数量。1978年全国吃财政饭的人为9780000人。平均80人老百姓养一个官。2008年公
务员人数为52000000人。平均25个人养活一个官。上涨了5.3倍。
12，1978年三公费用（公车费用、公费旅游、公款吃喝）为197800元。到2008年三公费用达到
了2100亿。上涨了1061678倍。
13，道德指数。用国际马里克期指数来衡量，1978年为9999。2008年为0.98。社会主义道德指
数下降10203倍。
14，经济健康指数。1978年，全国各地区各行业水平差距不大，用国际马里克期指数来衡量，
当年健康指数为1978。2008年经济健康指数为2.008。各行业各地区各阶层矛盾重重。
经济健康指数下降了985倍。
15，老百姓在银行存款占总存款比重。1978年比重为55%。2008年比重降为25%。相反，政府机
关的存款（也就是各权力部门的罚款收入以及私设的小金库）上升了2倍。
16，政府为教育的投入占GDP的比重。1978年为8%。2008年为1.3%。下降了6倍。
17，政府为医疗的投入占GDP的比重。1978年为7.8%。2008年为0.2008%。下降了39倍。
18，收费高速路。1978年为0公里。2008年为100000公里。上涨倍数为无穷大。没法比了。
2，大白菜当年0.02元每斤。现在为0.6元每斤。上涨了30倍。
3，最普通的一双皮鞋的使用年限。1978年为5年，2008年平均使用年限为1年。使用寿命下降5
倍。
4，培养一名大学生。1978年从小学到大学学费为140元。现在从小学到大学要150000元。上涨
了1071倍。
5，房价。当年100平每月扣房租1.2元。现在100平每月房贷2500元。上涨了2083倍。
6，环境污染。按国际马里克期指数，1978年污染指数为0.98。2008年污染指数为1580。污染
指数上涨了1612倍。
7，牛奶里三聚氰胺含量。1978年为0。2008年为380MG。上涨倍数为无穷大。
8，感冒发烧的治病费用。1978年为0.98元。2008年平均为90元。上涨倍数为91倍。
9，住院一天空床位费用。1978年为0.78元。2008年为200.8元。上涨倍数为257元。
10，最大贪污金额。1978年为19780元。是深圳一个管理进出口的官创记录的。2008年最大依
法金额为200800000元。上涨倍数为10151倍。
11，官员数量。1978年全国吃财政饭的人为9780000人。平均80人老百姓养一个官。2008年公
务员人数为52000000人。平均25个人养活一个官。上涨了5.3倍。
12，1978年三公费用（公车费用、公费旅游、公款吃喝）为197800元。到2008年三公费用达到
了2100亿。上涨了1061678倍。
13，道德指数。用国际马里克期指数来衡量，1978年为9999。2008年为0.98。社会主义道德指
数下降10203倍。
14，经济健康指数。1978年，全国各地区各行业水平差距不大，用国际马里克期指数来衡量，
当年健康指数为1978。2008年经济健康指数为2.008。各行业各地区各阶层矛盾重重。
经济健康指数下降了985倍。
15，老百姓在银行存款占总存款比重。1978年比重为55%。2008年比重降为25%。相反，政府机
关的存款（也就是各权力部门的罚款收入以及私设的小金库）上升了2倍。
16，政府为教育的投入占GDP的比重。1978年为8%。2008年为1.3%。下降了6倍。
17，政府为医疗的投入占GDP的比重。1978年为7.8%。2008年为0.2008%。下降了39倍。
18，收费高速路。1978年为0公里。2008年为100000公里。上涨倍数为无穷大。没法比了。
2008年中国10大新闻(搞笑)
1.新华社日前在发表图片新闻《三百万穆斯林麦加举办朝圣活动》后的24小时内作出更正，指出那幅从空中俯拍的人山人海的图片其实是北京高校应届毕业生的招聘会现场。
2.中国建筑材料联合会前不久致函中国几大乳品公司，感谢它们在2008年为中国石材供应做出的杰出贡献。另据报道，国家质检总局日前发布公告，要求中国食品饮料企业自2009年1月1日开始必须在食品包装上注明所有该产品所不包含的有毒物质。
3.今年夏天，第二十九届奥运会在北京成功举办。在最为引人注目的男子100米决赛中，牙买加运动员博尔特神奇般地以9秒69打破世界纪录并获得冠军。获得亚军的是中国运动员范跑跑。另据报道，前足协主席谢亚龙率领中国国奥队兵败北京奥运后处于休息状态，近日六位数代言北京一家按摩中心 “叉腰肌推拿”这项特色服务。
4.著名运动员刘翔在奥运会退赛后接受采访时遗憾地说：“如果不是因为受伤，我本来可以跑得更快”。一周之内，这句话被大量复印后贴进了各大证券公司的营业大厅和大户室。
5.中国摄影家协会日前颁发了2008年度“影响中国”摄影特别贡献奖。获奖者分别为香港艺人陈冠希和中国陕西农民周正龙。
6.日前，北京某夜总会打出巨幅标语“拉动内需促发展”。另据报道，大型饮料企业娃哈哈集团昨天正式宣布，基于中央为明年经济工作定下的基调，决定把娃哈哈八宝粥改名为娃哈哈“宝（保）八”粥。
7.东航返航事件中的部分飞行员被国家航天局列为“神八”候补队员。对此国家航天局发言人解释说：“第一，这些飞行员还年轻，我们要给他们将功补过的机会；第二，他们也符合我们的要求—飞到一个地方不降落再直接飞回来。”
8.高盛、摩根斯坦利等华尔街投资银行近日先后公布了自己今年的裁员计划。高盛宣布，如果员工退回去年总收入（含奖金）的50%，他们将可以确保留任；如果他们再退回今年基本工资的50%，他们将确保不被降级。摩根斯坦利随即宣布了自己的计划：参照高盛计划，并且连续执行三年。
9.央视认为“大裤衩”称谓不雅，上月公开就其新址向全社会征名。最终入选成功替代“大裤衩”的是“斜门”。
10.上个月，北京海淀区数十万居民在观看电视的时候忽然遭遇黑屏。微软公司在第一时间发表声明说：这次黑屏事件是因为供电局停电，与微软没有关系。
2.中国建筑材料联合会前不久致函中国几大乳品公司，感谢它们在2008年为中国石材供应做出的杰出贡献。另据报道，国家质检总局日前发布公告，要求中国食品饮料企业自2009年1月1日开始必须在食品包装上注明所有该产品所不包含的有毒物质。
3.今年夏天，第二十九届奥运会在北京成功举办。在最为引人注目的男子100米决赛中，牙买加运动员博尔特神奇般地以9秒69打破世界纪录并获得冠军。获得亚军的是中国运动员范跑跑。另据报道，前足协主席谢亚龙率领中国国奥队兵败北京奥运后处于休息状态，近日六位数代言北京一家按摩中心 “叉腰肌推拿”这项特色服务。
4.著名运动员刘翔在奥运会退赛后接受采访时遗憾地说：“如果不是因为受伤，我本来可以跑得更快”。一周之内，这句话被大量复印后贴进了各大证券公司的营业大厅和大户室。
5.中国摄影家协会日前颁发了2008年度“影响中国”摄影特别贡献奖。获奖者分别为香港艺人陈冠希和中国陕西农民周正龙。
6.日前，北京某夜总会打出巨幅标语“拉动内需促发展”。另据报道，大型饮料企业娃哈哈集团昨天正式宣布，基于中央为明年经济工作定下的基调，决定把娃哈哈八宝粥改名为娃哈哈“宝（保）八”粥。
7.东航返航事件中的部分飞行员被国家航天局列为“神八”候补队员。对此国家航天局发言人解释说：“第一，这些飞行员还年轻，我们要给他们将功补过的机会；第二，他们也符合我们的要求—飞到一个地方不降落再直接飞回来。”
8.高盛、摩根斯坦利等华尔街投资银行近日先后公布了自己今年的裁员计划。高盛宣布，如果员工退回去年总收入（含奖金）的50%，他们将可以确保留任；如果他们再退回今年基本工资的50%，他们将确保不被降级。摩根斯坦利随即宣布了自己的计划：参照高盛计划，并且连续执行三年。
9.央视认为“大裤衩”称谓不雅，上月公开就其新址向全社会征名。最终入选成功替代“大裤衩”的是“斜门”。
10.上个月，北京海淀区数十万居民在观看电视的时候忽然遭遇黑屏。微软公司在第一时间发表声明说：这次黑屏事件是因为供电局停电，与微软没有关系。
Ford scores marketing coup with thrifty Fusion hybrid
By Sharon Silke Carty, USA TODAY
DETROIT — The Ford Fusion hybrid will be the most fuel-efficient midsize sedan on the market when it arrives this spring, clocking in at 41 miles per gallon, according to data given to Ford Motor by the Environmental Protection Agency.
That will make it the second-most fuel-efficient vehicle on the road, according to a ranking published on the EPA's website, behind the smaller Toyota Prius and ahead of the smaller Honda Civic hybrid.
It's a huge marketing gain for Ford as it attempts to green up its image and improve fuel efficiency across the board. The Fusion hybrid will cost about $27,000 vs. roughly $24,000 for the conventional Fusion model.
"Our overall strategy is to ensure that with every new vehicle we introduce, we're either the best or among the best in fuel economy," says Derrick Kuzak, vice president of global product development for Ford. "Clearly fuel economy … is at the top of the list of customer wants."
Even with gas prices hitting an average of $1.66 a gallon, down from the high of $4.11 earlier this summer, fuel economy continues to be a big concern for consumers, says Stephen Berkov, executive director of client strategy at consumer website Edmunds.com. That's because few are convinced low gas prices are here to stay, he says.
"Consumers are completely reconsidering everything about buying a car, in terms of what attributes they're looking for," Berkov says. "Now, the No. 1 factor would be fuel efficiency — that's a paradigm shift. Automotive marketing has always been about performance, and now it's about fuel efficiency."
The Fusion will get 41 mpg in the city and 36 mpg on the highway. Hybrids tend to be more efficient in city driving because the electric motors kick in at low speeds.
For one of the U.S. carmakers to have a vehicle that tops its segment in fuel efficiency is a huge marketing coup, Berkov says. The automakers have taken a beating in the public eye this fall as they pleaded their case for a bailout in front of Congress, with many politicians chiding them for not producing green enough cars. Having cars that get class-leading mileage, like the Fusion hybrid, can change those perceptions, Berkov says.
Praveen Cherian, engineering team leader for the Ford Fusion, says the automaker was able to get Fusion's mileage to over 40 miles per gallon by taking a lot of little steps.
One of the biggest fuel savers is the air conditioners. On the Ford Escape hybrid, the air conditioner is powered by the gas engine, so once it's on, fuel savings are minimal. But in the Fusion, the air conditioner is electric-powered.
The car's battery is also 50 pounds lighter than the Escape hybrid's battery, and there are many small tweaks that improve its aerodynamics.
DETROIT — The Ford Fusion hybrid will be the most fuel-efficient midsize sedan on the market when it arrives this spring, clocking in at 41 miles per gallon, according to data given to Ford Motor by the Environmental Protection Agency.
That will make it the second-most fuel-efficient vehicle on the road, according to a ranking published on the EPA's website, behind the smaller Toyota Prius and ahead of the smaller Honda Civic hybrid.
It's a huge marketing gain for Ford as it attempts to green up its image and improve fuel efficiency across the board. The Fusion hybrid will cost about $27,000 vs. roughly $24,000 for the conventional Fusion model.
"Our overall strategy is to ensure that with every new vehicle we introduce, we're either the best or among the best in fuel economy," says Derrick Kuzak, vice president of global product development for Ford. "Clearly fuel economy … is at the top of the list of customer wants."
Even with gas prices hitting an average of $1.66 a gallon, down from the high of $4.11 earlier this summer, fuel economy continues to be a big concern for consumers, says Stephen Berkov, executive director of client strategy at consumer website Edmunds.com. That's because few are convinced low gas prices are here to stay, he says.
"Consumers are completely reconsidering everything about buying a car, in terms of what attributes they're looking for," Berkov says. "Now, the No. 1 factor would be fuel efficiency — that's a paradigm shift. Automotive marketing has always been about performance, and now it's about fuel efficiency."
The Fusion will get 41 mpg in the city and 36 mpg on the highway. Hybrids tend to be more efficient in city driving because the electric motors kick in at low speeds.
For one of the U.S. carmakers to have a vehicle that tops its segment in fuel efficiency is a huge marketing coup, Berkov says. The automakers have taken a beating in the public eye this fall as they pleaded their case for a bailout in front of Congress, with many politicians chiding them for not producing green enough cars. Having cars that get class-leading mileage, like the Fusion hybrid, can change those perceptions, Berkov says.
Praveen Cherian, engineering team leader for the Ford Fusion, says the automaker was able to get Fusion's mileage to over 40 miles per gallon by taking a lot of little steps.
One of the biggest fuel savers is the air conditioners. On the Ford Escape hybrid, the air conditioner is powered by the gas engine, so once it's on, fuel savings are minimal. But in the Fusion, the air conditioner is electric-powered.
The car's battery is also 50 pounds lighter than the Escape hybrid's battery, and there are many small tweaks that improve its aerodynamics.
Forecasters share predictions for economy's outlook in 2009
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — It may come as a surprise, given all the bad news of late, but the U.S. economy is expected to emerge from the recession sometime around mid-2009.
Until that happens, the economy will remain mired in one of the deepest and longest downturns the nation has seen in decades.
If the recession continues past the spring, as many economists predict, it will be the most prolonged one since the Great Depression. Employers are expected to continue to shed jobs at a rapid pace. Consumers will pull back spending. Businesses will cancel equipment purchases. Unsold, empty homes will dot city blocks.
However, once the massive amount of fiscal stimulus currently being crafted by lawmakers and aggressive action by the Federal Reserve kicks in, the economy is expected to improve, according to several economists and business owners.
"We all just need to hang on," says Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, an economic consulting firm. "By late in the year, the economy will be moving up, and 2010 should be a recovery year."
OLE managing partner Javier Escobedo is counting on that.
Business at his New York-based advertising company with a focus on the Hispanic retail market has dropped significantly since Thanksgiving. In the past few months Escobedo has not renewed contracts for about 20 people he employed on a project basis.
He's looking for things to pick up in the third quarter. But "the highflying numbers in terms of revenues in my business" won't likely come for two to three years, he says.
Unknown is how rapidly the economy will rebound once the turnaround takes hold. Some say it could come roaring back.
"We're going to throw so much at it in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus that we will turn it around, and it will have legs," Comerica Bank chief economist Dana Johnson says.
Others are gloomier. They expect continued job losses and depressed consumer and business spending throughout the year because of tight credit conditions. The resulting damage to the consumer and business psyche will change the very nature of the economy for years to come.
"The first six months of '09 will be very painful, the second six months will just be painful, and 2010 will be uncomfortable," Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi says.
Predicting the economy's future is particularly tough this year, given rapid changes in the economy and financial markets, and uncertainty about what course of action Congress and President-elect Barack Obama's administration will take to boost the economy in the new year, says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at consulting firm RDQ Economics.
"When it comes to all of these forecasts, there is a lot less clarity than usual," he says.
A look at five key areas of the economy to watch in 2009
1. Jobs
The outlook for jobs is probably the worst aspect of the economy in 2009. Employers are expected to trim payrolls until the end of the year, shoving the jobless rate above 8%, according to forecasts from Barclays Capital, John Hancock Financial Services, Citigroup, Mission Residential, Wachovia and National City.
That excludes those who have given up on finding jobs or who work part time because they can't get full-time work. The jobless rate was 6.7% in November, the highest in 15 years.
Job losses could be particularly brutal in the first half of the year. Last month, 60% of U.S. CEOs said they expected to cut workers in the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable. A number of companies, including Bank of America and United Airlines, have already announced layoffs for early 2009.
Even after the economy stabilizes, job losses will probably continue for a while. That's common in recovery periods as wary businesses await more evidence that the economy is on solid footing. Employers cut jobs for nearly a year after the 2001 recession ended, for example.
"I don't know what is coming, so what we are trying to do is remain nimble and lean," says Andrew Field, CEO of Livingston, Mont.-based PrintingForLess.com. He employs 162 people full time, down from nearly 200 early in 2008.
Bright spots: The health care and education sectors will keep adding jobs.
2. Housing
The long-depressed housing market is widely expected to hit a bottom in 2009. But the rebound will likely be very slow and gradual, given rising unemployment and a sluggish economy.
"Housing will, to a certain extent, lead in this recovery," Wachovia Securities senior economist Mark Vitner says.
But initially, that won't be because the market is actually strengthening, as has been the case in previous post-recessionary periods, he says. "What gives us positive numbers in the second half of 2009 … is that housing stops falling," Vitner says
Housing construction, which has fallen off a cliff since peaking in early 2006, will flatten in mid-2009, he says. Wachovia anticipates the decline in sales of new and previously owned homes will bottom out around the same time.
While sales and construction are expected to flatten or edge higher, it's more murky as to when prices will stop falling.
The timing of the price recovery depends, in part, on how strongly state and federal governments step in to stop foreclosures, Vitner and other economists say. Wells Fargo senior economist Scott Anderson argues prices won't rebound until 2010 because home sellers will keep cutting prices to compete with banks selling foreclosed homes.
3. Consumer spending
Consumer confidence has taken an enormous hit in recent months, and Americans are expected to be tight with money early in the year, then slowly increase their spending.
The massive loss of wealth from the decline in stock and home prices has taken a huge toll on U.S. households. Net worth was down more than 11% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve. When people are less wealthy — even on paper — they tend to spend less. And Americans finally are building up their savings — after years of spending more than they earned.
"When unemployment is high and confidence is low, people accumulate a little bit of a nest egg," National City chief economist Richard DeKaser says.
Retailers are bracing for the worst, with the most optimistic suggesting that the downward slide in sales will stop or at least slow in the second half of the year. But they're not taking any chances. Nearly all chain stores have scaled back plans to open stores. Some, including Sears and Ann Taylor, are expected to close stores well into next year and beyond. The liquidation company Hilco Appraisal Services recently predicted that 14,000 retail stores of all sizes will close in 2009.
Auto sales in the USA are expected to be even worse in 2009 than in 2008, reflecting the lower sales volume that hit at the tail end of this year. Estimates range from 11.5 million to 12.5 million for 2009, a far cry from the 17 million-a-year sales level in 2001, the Detroit 3 automakers said in testimony this month as they sought a federal bailout.
Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. DeKaser and analysts at Barclays Capital, UCLA and John Hancock all expect spending to increase in the April-June quarter. One thing that will help is the sharp drop in prices of commodities, particularly gas. "It's one of the good pieces of news that's out there," says IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh.
4. Business spending
Businesses are expected to cut spending dramatically through much of 2009. A number of economists, including those at Citi, UCLA, National City and Wachovia, don't expect business investment, which accounts for about one-tenth of U.S. economic activity, to decline through 2009.
According to a survey of 679 chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine this month, U.S. businesses expect to cut capital spending by more than 10% in the next 12 months, a sharp deterioration from September, when the CFOs expected business investment to increase slightly.
John Graham, finance professor at Duke and director of the survey, says businesses are finding ways to repair existing machinery and buildings rather than replace equipment or move. They likely won't increase their spending until they see concrete evidence the economy is on the mend.
"Some people are doing it because the business is just not there," Graham says. "Other companies are potentially cutting back even as a precautionary measure."
Also holding back businesses is the lack of access or high cost of credit, Graham says.
Robert Safro, president of LOGOmotion, a Bethesda, Md.-based company that creates marketing materials such as coffee mugs and tote bags for conferences and businesses, sees a great deal of caution from his clients.
Those planning meetings for late winter and early spring are either buying fewer or less-expensive items, or they're not buying at all. One client who usually spends about $80,000 on a conference each year is spending half that.
"I'm concerned," Safro says.
Robert Coen, director of forecasting at media-analysis firm Magna, predicts a 4.5% drop in ad spending to $259 billion in 2009 on the heels of a 3.2% drop in 2008.
"A recovery in U.S. ad budgets will probably not get underway until 2010," he says.
Another negative for 2009: There aren't any big ad-spending events such as the Olympics or national elections.
Declining business spending will hurt a number of industries but will be especially tough for the manufacturing sector. Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers expect revenue to be unchanged or lower in 2009 than 2008, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management found.
5. Prices
Concerns about inflation are so 2008. In 2009, deflation worries are expected to dominate the pricing landscape.
With the economy in a slump, prices are falling for a variety of goods — prompting worries that the economy could sink into a deflationary spiral. Deflation is a broad, sustained decline in prices that is hard to stop once it takes hold.
If consumers expect prices to decline, they put off making purchases, thus crippling the already weak economy.
While many economists say the chances of deflation are remote, the Federal Reserve is taking no chances.
Tuesday, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and vowed to keep them low while also pledging to plow money into the financial system to unlock lending and boost the economy.
Concerns about deflation will make the Fed "all the more aggressive," says Comerica's Johnson, arguing that although price pressures are abating, the chance of outright deflation is remote.
Still, "That is going to be a risk for a while given the severity of the recession."
Contributing: Jayne O'Donnell and Stephanie Armour in McLean, Va., Sharon Silke Carty in Detroit and Laura Petrecca in New York
WASHINGTON — It may come as a surprise, given all the bad news of late, but the U.S. economy is expected to emerge from the recession sometime around mid-2009.
Until that happens, the economy will remain mired in one of the deepest and longest downturns the nation has seen in decades.
If the recession continues past the spring, as many economists predict, it will be the most prolonged one since the Great Depression. Employers are expected to continue to shed jobs at a rapid pace. Consumers will pull back spending. Businesses will cancel equipment purchases. Unsold, empty homes will dot city blocks.
However, once the massive amount of fiscal stimulus currently being crafted by lawmakers and aggressive action by the Federal Reserve kicks in, the economy is expected to improve, according to several economists and business owners.
"We all just need to hang on," says Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, an economic consulting firm. "By late in the year, the economy will be moving up, and 2010 should be a recovery year."
OLE managing partner Javier Escobedo is counting on that.
Business at his New York-based advertising company with a focus on the Hispanic retail market has dropped significantly since Thanksgiving. In the past few months Escobedo has not renewed contracts for about 20 people he employed on a project basis.
He's looking for things to pick up in the third quarter. But "the highflying numbers in terms of revenues in my business" won't likely come for two to three years, he says.
Unknown is how rapidly the economy will rebound once the turnaround takes hold. Some say it could come roaring back.
"We're going to throw so much at it in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus that we will turn it around, and it will have legs," Comerica Bank chief economist Dana Johnson says.
Others are gloomier. They expect continued job losses and depressed consumer and business spending throughout the year because of tight credit conditions. The resulting damage to the consumer and business psyche will change the very nature of the economy for years to come.
"The first six months of '09 will be very painful, the second six months will just be painful, and 2010 will be uncomfortable," Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi says.
Predicting the economy's future is particularly tough this year, given rapid changes in the economy and financial markets, and uncertainty about what course of action Congress and President-elect Barack Obama's administration will take to boost the economy in the new year, says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at consulting firm RDQ Economics.
"When it comes to all of these forecasts, there is a lot less clarity than usual," he says.
A look at five key areas of the economy to watch in 2009
1. Jobs
The outlook for jobs is probably the worst aspect of the economy in 2009. Employers are expected to trim payrolls until the end of the year, shoving the jobless rate above 8%, according to forecasts from Barclays Capital, John Hancock Financial Services, Citigroup, Mission Residential, Wachovia and National City.
That excludes those who have given up on finding jobs or who work part time because they can't get full-time work. The jobless rate was 6.7% in November, the highest in 15 years.
Job losses could be particularly brutal in the first half of the year. Last month, 60% of U.S. CEOs said they expected to cut workers in the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable. A number of companies, including Bank of America and United Airlines, have already announced layoffs for early 2009.
Even after the economy stabilizes, job losses will probably continue for a while. That's common in recovery periods as wary businesses await more evidence that the economy is on solid footing. Employers cut jobs for nearly a year after the 2001 recession ended, for example.
"I don't know what is coming, so what we are trying to do is remain nimble and lean," says Andrew Field, CEO of Livingston, Mont.-based PrintingForLess.com. He employs 162 people full time, down from nearly 200 early in 2008.
Bright spots: The health care and education sectors will keep adding jobs.
2. Housing
The long-depressed housing market is widely expected to hit a bottom in 2009. But the rebound will likely be very slow and gradual, given rising unemployment and a sluggish economy.
"Housing will, to a certain extent, lead in this recovery," Wachovia Securities senior economist Mark Vitner says.
But initially, that won't be because the market is actually strengthening, as has been the case in previous post-recessionary periods, he says. "What gives us positive numbers in the second half of 2009 … is that housing stops falling," Vitner says
Housing construction, which has fallen off a cliff since peaking in early 2006, will flatten in mid-2009, he says. Wachovia anticipates the decline in sales of new and previously owned homes will bottom out around the same time.
While sales and construction are expected to flatten or edge higher, it's more murky as to when prices will stop falling.
The timing of the price recovery depends, in part, on how strongly state and federal governments step in to stop foreclosures, Vitner and other economists say. Wells Fargo senior economist Scott Anderson argues prices won't rebound until 2010 because home sellers will keep cutting prices to compete with banks selling foreclosed homes.
3. Consumer spending
Consumer confidence has taken an enormous hit in recent months, and Americans are expected to be tight with money early in the year, then slowly increase their spending.
The massive loss of wealth from the decline in stock and home prices has taken a huge toll on U.S. households. Net worth was down more than 11% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve. When people are less wealthy — even on paper — they tend to spend less. And Americans finally are building up their savings — after years of spending more than they earned.
"When unemployment is high and confidence is low, people accumulate a little bit of a nest egg," National City chief economist Richard DeKaser says.
Retailers are bracing for the worst, with the most optimistic suggesting that the downward slide in sales will stop or at least slow in the second half of the year. But they're not taking any chances. Nearly all chain stores have scaled back plans to open stores. Some, including Sears and Ann Taylor, are expected to close stores well into next year and beyond. The liquidation company Hilco Appraisal Services recently predicted that 14,000 retail stores of all sizes will close in 2009.
Auto sales in the USA are expected to be even worse in 2009 than in 2008, reflecting the lower sales volume that hit at the tail end of this year. Estimates range from 11.5 million to 12.5 million for 2009, a far cry from the 17 million-a-year sales level in 2001, the Detroit 3 automakers said in testimony this month as they sought a federal bailout.
Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. DeKaser and analysts at Barclays Capital, UCLA and John Hancock all expect spending to increase in the April-June quarter. One thing that will help is the sharp drop in prices of commodities, particularly gas. "It's one of the good pieces of news that's out there," says IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh.
4. Business spending
Businesses are expected to cut spending dramatically through much of 2009. A number of economists, including those at Citi, UCLA, National City and Wachovia, don't expect business investment, which accounts for about one-tenth of U.S. economic activity, to decline through 2009.
According to a survey of 679 chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine this month, U.S. businesses expect to cut capital spending by more than 10% in the next 12 months, a sharp deterioration from September, when the CFOs expected business investment to increase slightly.
John Graham, finance professor at Duke and director of the survey, says businesses are finding ways to repair existing machinery and buildings rather than replace equipment or move. They likely won't increase their spending until they see concrete evidence the economy is on the mend.
"Some people are doing it because the business is just not there," Graham says. "Other companies are potentially cutting back even as a precautionary measure."
Also holding back businesses is the lack of access or high cost of credit, Graham says.
Robert Safro, president of LOGOmotion, a Bethesda, Md.-based company that creates marketing materials such as coffee mugs and tote bags for conferences and businesses, sees a great deal of caution from his clients.
Those planning meetings for late winter and early spring are either buying fewer or less-expensive items, or they're not buying at all. One client who usually spends about $80,000 on a conference each year is spending half that.
"I'm concerned," Safro says.
Robert Coen, director of forecasting at media-analysis firm Magna, predicts a 4.5% drop in ad spending to $259 billion in 2009 on the heels of a 3.2% drop in 2008.
"A recovery in U.S. ad budgets will probably not get underway until 2010," he says.
Another negative for 2009: There aren't any big ad-spending events such as the Olympics or national elections.
Declining business spending will hurt a number of industries but will be especially tough for the manufacturing sector. Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers expect revenue to be unchanged or lower in 2009 than 2008, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management found.
5. Prices
Concerns about inflation are so 2008. In 2009, deflation worries are expected to dominate the pricing landscape.
With the economy in a slump, prices are falling for a variety of goods — prompting worries that the economy could sink into a deflationary spiral. Deflation is a broad, sustained decline in prices that is hard to stop once it takes hold.
If consumers expect prices to decline, they put off making purchases, thus crippling the already weak economy.
While many economists say the chances of deflation are remote, the Federal Reserve is taking no chances.
Tuesday, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and vowed to keep them low while also pledging to plow money into the financial system to unlock lending and boost the economy.
Concerns about deflation will make the Fed "all the more aggressive," says Comerica's Johnson, arguing that although price pressures are abating, the chance of outright deflation is remote.
Still, "That is going to be a risk for a while given the severity of the recession."
Contributing: Jayne O'Donnell and Stephanie Armour in McLean, Va., Sharon Silke Carty in Detroit and Laura Petrecca in New York
Deployment Guide Series: IBM TSM FastBack
Abstract
This IBM® Redbooks® publication is written as part of the deployment guide series. It discusses the IBM Tivoli® Storage Manager FastBack product family. Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack is a complete backup, recovery, and continuous data protection solution for Windows® based servers. It is a new addition to the IBM Tivoli Storage Manager family of products.
Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack includes a specialized solution for backing up Microsoft® Exchange server and provides Bare Machine Recovery. Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack also supports a disaster recovery scenario by providing a hub server that centralizes recovery from multiple locations.
The book is written in a deployment guide format. Thus, it contains an extensive guide for implementation services and requirement considerations. It explains how to install Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack, as well as how to use the solution. It also includes demonstration scenarios.
Table of contents
Part 1. Planning
Chapter 1. Solution introduction
Chapter 2. Solution environment
Chapter 3. Project planning
Part 2. Implementation
Chapter 4. Installation and configuration
Chapter 5. Usage demonstration
Chapter 6. Best practices and troubleshooting tips
Part 3. Appendixes
Appendix A. Volume Shadow Copy Service
Appendix B. REXX utility for simulating file server operation
Appendix C. Additional material
Others who downloaded this publication also downloaded
* IBM Tivoli Storage Manager Versions 5.4 and 5.5 Technical Guide, SG24-7447-00
* PowerVM Virtualization on IBM System p: Introduction and Configuration Fourth Edition, SG24-7940-03
* Deployment Guide Series: IBM Tivoli Storage Manager V5.5, SG24-7379-01
This IBM® Redbooks® publication is written as part of the deployment guide series. It discusses the IBM Tivoli® Storage Manager FastBack product family. Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack is a complete backup, recovery, and continuous data protection solution for Windows® based servers. It is a new addition to the IBM Tivoli Storage Manager family of products.
Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack includes a specialized solution for backing up Microsoft® Exchange server and provides Bare Machine Recovery. Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack also supports a disaster recovery scenario by providing a hub server that centralizes recovery from multiple locations.
The book is written in a deployment guide format. Thus, it contains an extensive guide for implementation services and requirement considerations. It explains how to install Tivoli Storage Manager FastBack, as well as how to use the solution. It also includes demonstration scenarios.
Table of contents
Part 1. Planning
Chapter 1. Solution introduction
Chapter 2. Solution environment
Chapter 3. Project planning
Part 2. Implementation
Chapter 4. Installation and configuration
Chapter 5. Usage demonstration
Chapter 6. Best practices and troubleshooting tips
Part 3. Appendixes
Appendix A. Volume Shadow Copy Service
Appendix B. REXX utility for simulating file server operation
Appendix C. Additional material
Others who downloaded this publication also downloaded
* IBM Tivoli Storage Manager Versions 5.4 and 5.5 Technical Guide, SG24-7447-00
* PowerVM Virtualization on IBM System p: Introduction and Configuration Fourth Edition, SG24-7940-03
* Deployment Guide Series: IBM Tivoli Storage Manager V5.5, SG24-7379-01
2008年12月22日星期一
Chief Of The Year: Amazon CTO Werner Vogels
Amazon's external-facing CTO is helping to devise a cloud computing architecture with customer requirements built-in.
By John Foley, InformationWeek
Dec. 20, 2008
URL: http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212501217
Werner Vogels, CTO, Amazon -- InformationWeek's Chief of the Year for 2008 -- Photo by Brian Smale
Werner Vogels
CTO, Amazon
InformationWeek's
Chief of the Year
for 2008
Photo by Brian Smale
From an eighth-floor conference room at Amazon.com's headquarters on Beacon Hill, with an expansive view of downtown Seattle to the north, Werner Vogels contemplates how large companies might use cloud computing. He points to system automation and "autoscaling" beyond what IT departments have implemented internally. He envisions "partner clouds" of shared IT resources, data, and applications. He even suggests FedEx could one day run its vital package-tracking application in the cloud.
"For most of these things, it's really Day 1," says Amazon's bearish CTO--he's 6 feet, 5 inches tall--dressed, as usual, in gray and black.
If we're on the cusp of the computer industry's next major architecture, the one beyond client-server, Vogels has played a key role in getting us to this point. A former researcher in Cornell University's computer science department, where he specialized in large-scale distributed systems, Vogels joined Amazon in 2004 to help the e-retailer design and scale its IT infrastructure to handle workloads many times Amazon's own. "Amazon was reaching a point where they needed to rethink how they were building their software--what scale really meant, what reliability really meant," he says.
InformationWeek Reports
The overhaul was required to support the emerging Amazon Web Services business, which over the past four years has come to represent the state of the art in on-demand, pay-as-you-go computing. With a user ID and a credit card, application developers and others can provision servers, storage, and other IT infrastructure with unprecedented ease.
Vogels' name and face are often associated with Amazon's cloud, but AWS isn't a one-man show. Senior VP Andy Jassy conceived the business model five years ago and has had his hand at the wheel ever since. VP Charlie Bell is the lead technical manager of AWS. VP Adam Selipsky is the liaison to the 440,000 developers who have signed up so far. Vogels, Bell, and Selipsky report to Jassy, and Amazon balked at our suggestion that one of them could be singled out. But we did it anyway, selecting Vogels as InformationWeek's Chief of the Year, our highest editorial honor. Here's why.
Amazon's 50-year-old CTO has emerged as the right person at the right time and place to guide cloud computing--until now, an emerging technology for early adopters--into the mainstream. He not only understands how to architect a global computing cloud consisting of tens of thousands of servers, but also how to engage CTOs, CIOs, and other professionals at customer companies in a discussion of how that architecture could potentially change the way they approach IT.
Amazon aspires to be "the earth's most customer-centric company." Vogels' job description as "an external-facing technologist" isn't just consistent with that mission statement, it's cutting edge. Too many CIOs, CTOs, and IT organizations as a whole remain internally focused. They get treated like a cost center because they are a cost center--they don't venture outside their organizations. Vogels, in contrast, is constantly on the road talking with customers about what Amazon can do to address their computing needs in its data centers, then reporting back to the rest of the AWS team with ideas on how to make that happen. If you think Vogels' situation is different because he works for a "vendor," think again. CIOs and CTOs in a variety of industries must get better at articulating the business value of their technology to customers. Vogels even talks about Amazon building a "customer-oriented architecture."
DIG DEEPER
EXEC INSIGHTS
For more on the strategies of leading IT organizations and the execs calling the shots, download our annual InformationWeek 500 report, free for a limited time
>> See all our Reports <<
"Everybody has a lot of questions," says Thorsten von Eicken, CTO of RightScale, a startup with a management platform for AWS and other cloud services, and a former colleague of Vogels at Cornell. Vogels, he says, can both "explain the vision" of cloud computing and dive into the technical minutia.
If all goes as planned, Amazon's cloud will serve as an extension of corporate data centers for new applications and overflow capacity, so-called cloud bursting. Over time, Amazon will then take on more and more of the IT workload from businesses that see value in the model. Customer-centric? What Amazon's doing goes beyond that. Amazon's cloud becomes their cloud; its CTO, their CTO.
EVOLUTION OF AWS
Standing in the lobby of Amazon's headquarters, a 1930s Art Deco building that the $14.8 billion-a-year company has outgrown, I see Amazon's customer focus in action. The receptionist, a burly guy with tattooed arms, is on the phone for five minutes, patiently helping an author who called fretting over inaccuracies in the description of his book on Amazon's site. Problem solved.
My first meeting was with Jassy, a soft-spoken New York transplant and sports nut with seven TVs in his basement, who served as technical assistant to CEO Jeff Bezos in 2002 and 2003 before launching Amazon's Web services business. As Jassy explains it, the seed for AWS was planted in 1999 when the company decided to "decouple" system components to support its strategy of letting other e-commerce companies integrate the features of Amazon with their own sites. "We found religion around SOA, and it changed our thinking about systems and components," he says.
As the number of third-party Web sites tapping into Amazon's functionality to sell products approached a million, the APIs through which it exposed its underlying technology as services grew ever more important. In 2003, Bezos asked Jassy to develop a business plan. The next year, Amazon introduced its Simple Queue Service, a hosted queue for buffering messages between distributed applications, into beta testing.
It was the first of many Amazon infrastructure components to be offered as services. In 2006, Amazon introduced Simple Storage Service (S3) and Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), foundational pieces for AWS users. Over the past 12 months, it has stepped up the rollout, letting customers launch Red Hat Linux, OpenSolaris, and Windows Server operating systems and MySQL, Oracle 11g, and SQL Server databases as virtual "machine images" in its cloud. Other recently introduced capabilities include persistent storage, remappable IP addresses, user-selected geographic zones for EC2 instances, fulfillment services, development tools for integrating with Facebook and Salesforce.com, and a content delivery network called CloudFront (see timeline, "Amazon Web Services", below).
Jassy, like everyone else at Amazon, is evasive on certain questions about AWS. He won't say how many data centers the company operates, where they're located, how much revenue AWS pulls in, or how fast it's growing. ("They're extremely secretive--paranoid," says one business partner.) But Jassy will say this much: "Much to our surprise, enterprise adoption is happening much faster than any of us anticipated."
Amazon offers a few metrics as proof points. There are 440,000 registered AWS developers, 29 billion objects stored in S3, and, earlier this year, the amount of network bandwidth consumed by AWS surpassed that required for Amazon's retail site.
In terms of revenue, Amazon lumps AWS sales into its nonretail "other" category, along with its Enterprise Solutions Web hosting business (customers include Target and Marks & Spencer) and co-branded credit cards. In the first nine months of 2008, revenue from "other" operations totaled $367 million. That's only 3% of Amazon's $12.5 billion in total sales over that period, but here's the cause for optimism: While Amazon's overall business grew 36% through the first nine months of 2008, revenue from those other operations climbed 45%. It's reasonable to surmise that AWS is fueling that growth.
Jassy describes cloud computing as the undifferentiated heavy lifting of IT infrastructure--or the "muck"--and says businesses stand to benefit by off-loading that task of keeping it all running. He points to the 70-30 trap (sometimes characterized as 80-20), where 70% of IT budgets are spent on maintenance and only 30% on innovation. "One of the mantras of the business is to flip that on its head," he says.
Amazon Web Services
2004 Simple Queue Service, a hosted queue for storing messages is introduced
2005 Mechanical Turk, an online marketplace for on-demand workers, debuts
2006 Simple Storage Service (S3) provides on-demand access to Amazon's data store; Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) goes into testing;
2007 DevPay, SimpleDB, and Flexible Payments services go into beta testing; Red Hat Enterprise Linux becomes available on EC2
2008 Elastic Block Store, persistent data storage for EC2, and CloudFront CDN introduced
Elastic IP Addresses and Availability Zones give users control over IP addresses and geographic deployment of EC2 instances, respectively
AWS Premium Support launched
Microsoft, Oracle, and Sun server software become on-demand options on EC2
CHIEF CLOUD OFFICER
Vogels' assignment is to serve, in effect, as a chief cloud officer for the computer industry. A high-mileage schedule has him on the road much of the time. Earlier this month, he flew to San Francisco to attend a CTO roundtable on cloud computing hosted by the Association of Computing Machinery (ACM), and, from there, to London, Amsterdam, and Paris, where he spoke at LeWeb, an industry shindig sponsored by Google, Microsoft, and a dozen other tech companies.
On Dec. 10 at LeWeb, Vogels announced the expansion of Amazon's servers-by-the-hour EC2 service to Europe. A regional cloud minimizes latency and improves redundancy and, equally important, lets companies comply with European regulations requiring that customer data be stored locally. "This addresses the requests of many of our European customers and from companies that want to run instances closer to European customers," Vogels wrote in his All Things Distributed blog.
Vogels started his blog in 2001 while at Cornell, and he continues to post regularly, offering a tech guru's point of view on AWS services and features and an occasional deep dive into the guts of the Amazon infrastructure, such as his treatise on internally developed technology for high-availability storage. The technology, called Dynamo, integrates a bunch of arcane distributed system techniques such as DHTs, consistent hashing, versioning, vector clocks, quorum, and anti-entropy-based recovery. "As far as I know, Dynamo is the first production system to use the synthesis of all of these techniques, and there are quite a few lessons learned from doing so," Vogels wrote. Dynamo isn't exposed as a Web service, though it underlies S3, he added.
Vogels, a native of the Netherlands, developed his technical chops at Vrije University in Amsterdam, where he earned a Ph.D. in computer science. At Cornell, his research focused on large-scale distributed systems, including networking protocols, middleware, and cluster management. "In my eyes, Amazon is probably the world's largest distributed system," he says.
Vogels' academic and research background gives him added authority when talking up cloud computing. Oh, sure, he wears a marketing hat when on stage at industry events, but underneath that hat is the mind of a technologist who hears "cloud" and thinks of loosely coupled software services on a global distributed network operating with near-perfect availability.
Vogels Vitae
Joined Amazon as director of systems research in 2004; promoted to CTO and VP the next year
Computer science researcher at Cornell University from 1994 to 2004, specializing in large-scale distributed systems
Research engineer with INESC, a computer science research institute, from 1991 to 1994
Doctorate in computer science from Vrije University in Amsterdam
Writes All Things Distributed blog and uses Facebook, FriendFeed, LinkedIn, and Twitter
INTERNAL INNOVATION
Within Amazon, a dedicated development team works on each of the major Web services--EC2, S3, SQS, SimpleDB, CloudFront. It's an organizational structure intended to give those teams maximum autonomy. "We believe the groups should own their customers down to the metal," says Bell.
A 10-year company veteran, Bell knows Amazon's IT infrastructure as well as anyone. I first interviewed him eight years ago when Amazon was on a shopping spree for commercial software, licensing products from Excelon, Oracle, Manugistics, SAS Institute, and others. At the time, Bell made the point that Amazon's differentiating features--its personalization and customer-contact capabilities, for example--were internally developed. "You could characterize us almost as a software company," he said.
That's even truer today than it was then. As the demands on Amazon's IT infrastructure have increased through the success of its retail, Web hosting, and AWS businesses, Amazon is building more software and buying less. "There's hardly any third-party software left," says Vogels. "If I could buy things, I would. But vendors haven't reached a point where they can deliver software that can reliably work at Amazon scale."
(Also in that Nov. 6, 2000, InformationWeek story, titled "Amazon's IT Agenda," was a comment by Amazon chief programmer Jeremiah Wilton that foreshadowed the hiring of Vogels a few years later. "Our greatest challenge, from my point of view, has been scaling our systems," Wilton said.)
Bell is responsible for making sure that Amazon's Web services work together in a coordinated fashion, as well as for the business side of AWS. The general managers of each Web service--including Peter De Santis, general manager of EC2, and Alyssa Henry, general manager of S3--report to Bell. Their teams are spinning out new services and features every week or two, and increasingly those capabilities--user-designated "availability zones," block storage, EC2 in Europe, the CloudFront content delivery network--are geared for large companies.
That pace will continue into 2009, with EC2 monitoring, a Web-based management console, load balancing, and autoscaling due soon. Amazon's ability to propagate Web services goes back to architectural decisions made before the term cloud computing was first uttered. Bell puts it this way: "If you're going to build a service in the company, you're going to build it as a Web service, and you're going to build it to be exposed."
In its boilerplate, Amazon says 440,000 developers have signed up for AWS. In fact, they're not all developers; they range from entrepreneurs to enterprise IT pros and everyone in between. Selipsky's team supports that burgeoning population and plays to its diversity. "We want to support any programming language that our customers want--Java, C#, Python, Ruby, PHP," he says.
Charlie Bell
'Werner provides a great translation of what we're doing to the outside world. He's a great communicator,' says Amazon veteran Bell, who oversees Amazon Web Services development.
AWS is a popular platform among startups, Web companies, and software-as-a-service companies. Increasingly, Amazon's customers are household names: Nasdaq, The New York Times, Philips, SanDisk. Eli Lilly is using EC2 to deploy SQL Server/Windows Server instances as needed for research data. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway uses AWS for Web site mirroring, video streaming, and digital image archiving. Selipsky says there are a "slew" of other enterprise customers, including a hedge fund company and a mutual fund company, that haven't been disclosed.
As the early examples demonstrate, enterprise adoption tends to be limited to specific applications; CIOs don't want to commit too much, too soon. Vogels says we've only scratched the surface. When I ask whether FedEx, one of the largest and most sophisticated IT users, could seriously consider AWS as an alternative to running mission-critical apps in its own data centers, he doesn't hesitate. "I would love them to do that," he says. "I think that would be a great benefit to them."
The world of research, Vogels' old stomping ground, is another target market. This month, Amazon introduced AWS Public Data Sets, a no-cost repository for government, research, and other public data. And Amazon and Harvard Medical School co-sponsored a daylong forum in Boston where doctors, biomedical researchers, and other experts discussed how to apply cloud computing. Harvard's Laboratory for Personalized Medicine already uses Oracle on EC2 for genetic testing models and simulations.
SPREADING THE WORD
After spending half a day at Amazon's headquarters, I still had questions for Vogels, but, traveling somewhere in Europe, he had gone silent. Nevertheless, it's easy enough to follow Vogels. He's all over the Web--blogging, Twittering, and talking up cloud computing in interviews and on video.
With his Dutch accent, Vogels comes across as a bit of a Renaissance man--a music buff, photographer, and patron of the arts who speaks four languages and rides a motorcycle. His Twitter posts alternate between references to server optimization and network latency and an appreciation for "marvelous absurdistic physical theater."
I click on a video replay of Kara Swisher's on-stage chat with Vogels at LeWeb. Amazon's CTO tells the audience that the conversation with customers has shifted from cloud security to application deployment. Customers want to know how to move existing applications into the cloud, how much engineering work is involved, and how to exploit the functionality that Amazon makes available, he says.
Vogels, surprisingly, tells Swisher that security isn't the big issue it once was with customers, but he admits that AWS--which has experienced a number of hours-long service outages this year--has work to do in the area of reliability. "There's no excuse for any downtime or failure," he says. "One hundred percent availability is the only goal that you can have."
It's a reminder that, even though Amazon is four years into cloud computing, it's only recently begun addressing the stringent requirements of enterprise customers, and that work is unfinished. Amazon's flagship EC2 service, in beta testing for two years, became generally available just two months ago. Its SimpleDB relational database service is in beta testing. EC2 monitoring, management, load balancing, and autoscaling are still on the road map.
As my deadline approaches, Vogels resurfaces. I ask him about lingering concerns over data governance, security, and reliability in the cloud. He responds via e-mail that Amazon works with customers to address these concerns, but that "no customer has exactly the same needs as another."
In other words, with Bell driving AWS development and Selipsky managing front-line relationships, Vogels will need to keep racking up the frequent-flier miles. As Amazon reaches out to customers, his ability to articulate the benefits of cloud computing will have a lot do with whether they return the embrace. Years of engineering and cloud development are behind Amazon; the bigger job lies ahead.
By John Foley, InformationWeek
Dec. 20, 2008
URL: http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212501217
Werner Vogels, CTO, Amazon -- InformationWeek's Chief of the Year for 2008 -- Photo by Brian Smale
Werner Vogels
CTO, Amazon
InformationWeek's
Chief of the Year
for 2008
Photo by Brian Smale
From an eighth-floor conference room at Amazon.com's headquarters on Beacon Hill, with an expansive view of downtown Seattle to the north, Werner Vogels contemplates how large companies might use cloud computing. He points to system automation and "autoscaling" beyond what IT departments have implemented internally. He envisions "partner clouds" of shared IT resources, data, and applications. He even suggests FedEx could one day run its vital package-tracking application in the cloud.
"For most of these things, it's really Day 1," says Amazon's bearish CTO--he's 6 feet, 5 inches tall--dressed, as usual, in gray and black.
If we're on the cusp of the computer industry's next major architecture, the one beyond client-server, Vogels has played a key role in getting us to this point. A former researcher in Cornell University's computer science department, where he specialized in large-scale distributed systems, Vogels joined Amazon in 2004 to help the e-retailer design and scale its IT infrastructure to handle workloads many times Amazon's own. "Amazon was reaching a point where they needed to rethink how they were building their software--what scale really meant, what reliability really meant," he says.
InformationWeek Reports
The overhaul was required to support the emerging Amazon Web Services business, which over the past four years has come to represent the state of the art in on-demand, pay-as-you-go computing. With a user ID and a credit card, application developers and others can provision servers, storage, and other IT infrastructure with unprecedented ease.
Vogels' name and face are often associated with Amazon's cloud, but AWS isn't a one-man show. Senior VP Andy Jassy conceived the business model five years ago and has had his hand at the wheel ever since. VP Charlie Bell is the lead technical manager of AWS. VP Adam Selipsky is the liaison to the 440,000 developers who have signed up so far. Vogels, Bell, and Selipsky report to Jassy, and Amazon balked at our suggestion that one of them could be singled out. But we did it anyway, selecting Vogels as InformationWeek's Chief of the Year, our highest editorial honor. Here's why.
Amazon's 50-year-old CTO has emerged as the right person at the right time and place to guide cloud computing--until now, an emerging technology for early adopters--into the mainstream. He not only understands how to architect a global computing cloud consisting of tens of thousands of servers, but also how to engage CTOs, CIOs, and other professionals at customer companies in a discussion of how that architecture could potentially change the way they approach IT.
Amazon aspires to be "the earth's most customer-centric company." Vogels' job description as "an external-facing technologist" isn't just consistent with that mission statement, it's cutting edge. Too many CIOs, CTOs, and IT organizations as a whole remain internally focused. They get treated like a cost center because they are a cost center--they don't venture outside their organizations. Vogels, in contrast, is constantly on the road talking with customers about what Amazon can do to address their computing needs in its data centers, then reporting back to the rest of the AWS team with ideas on how to make that happen. If you think Vogels' situation is different because he works for a "vendor," think again. CIOs and CTOs in a variety of industries must get better at articulating the business value of their technology to customers. Vogels even talks about Amazon building a "customer-oriented architecture."
DIG DEEPER
EXEC INSIGHTS
For more on the strategies of leading IT organizations and the execs calling the shots, download our annual InformationWeek 500 report, free for a limited time
>> See all our Reports <<
"Everybody has a lot of questions," says Thorsten von Eicken, CTO of RightScale, a startup with a management platform for AWS and other cloud services, and a former colleague of Vogels at Cornell. Vogels, he says, can both "explain the vision" of cloud computing and dive into the technical minutia.
If all goes as planned, Amazon's cloud will serve as an extension of corporate data centers for new applications and overflow capacity, so-called cloud bursting. Over time, Amazon will then take on more and more of the IT workload from businesses that see value in the model. Customer-centric? What Amazon's doing goes beyond that. Amazon's cloud becomes their cloud; its CTO, their CTO.
EVOLUTION OF AWS
Standing in the lobby of Amazon's headquarters, a 1930s Art Deco building that the $14.8 billion-a-year company has outgrown, I see Amazon's customer focus in action. The receptionist, a burly guy with tattooed arms, is on the phone for five minutes, patiently helping an author who called fretting over inaccuracies in the description of his book on Amazon's site. Problem solved.
My first meeting was with Jassy, a soft-spoken New York transplant and sports nut with seven TVs in his basement, who served as technical assistant to CEO Jeff Bezos in 2002 and 2003 before launching Amazon's Web services business. As Jassy explains it, the seed for AWS was planted in 1999 when the company decided to "decouple" system components to support its strategy of letting other e-commerce companies integrate the features of Amazon with their own sites. "We found religion around SOA, and it changed our thinking about systems and components," he says.
As the number of third-party Web sites tapping into Amazon's functionality to sell products approached a million, the APIs through which it exposed its underlying technology as services grew ever more important. In 2003, Bezos asked Jassy to develop a business plan. The next year, Amazon introduced its Simple Queue Service, a hosted queue for buffering messages between distributed applications, into beta testing.
It was the first of many Amazon infrastructure components to be offered as services. In 2006, Amazon introduced Simple Storage Service (S3) and Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), foundational pieces for AWS users. Over the past 12 months, it has stepped up the rollout, letting customers launch Red Hat Linux, OpenSolaris, and Windows Server operating systems and MySQL, Oracle 11g, and SQL Server databases as virtual "machine images" in its cloud. Other recently introduced capabilities include persistent storage, remappable IP addresses, user-selected geographic zones for EC2 instances, fulfillment services, development tools for integrating with Facebook and Salesforce.com, and a content delivery network called CloudFront (see timeline, "Amazon Web Services", below).
Jassy, like everyone else at Amazon, is evasive on certain questions about AWS. He won't say how many data centers the company operates, where they're located, how much revenue AWS pulls in, or how fast it's growing. ("They're extremely secretive--paranoid," says one business partner.) But Jassy will say this much: "Much to our surprise, enterprise adoption is happening much faster than any of us anticipated."
Amazon offers a few metrics as proof points. There are 440,000 registered AWS developers, 29 billion objects stored in S3, and, earlier this year, the amount of network bandwidth consumed by AWS surpassed that required for Amazon's retail site.
In terms of revenue, Amazon lumps AWS sales into its nonretail "other" category, along with its Enterprise Solutions Web hosting business (customers include Target and Marks & Spencer) and co-branded credit cards. In the first nine months of 2008, revenue from "other" operations totaled $367 million. That's only 3% of Amazon's $12.5 billion in total sales over that period, but here's the cause for optimism: While Amazon's overall business grew 36% through the first nine months of 2008, revenue from those other operations climbed 45%. It's reasonable to surmise that AWS is fueling that growth.
Jassy describes cloud computing as the undifferentiated heavy lifting of IT infrastructure--or the "muck"--and says businesses stand to benefit by off-loading that task of keeping it all running. He points to the 70-30 trap (sometimes characterized as 80-20), where 70% of IT budgets are spent on maintenance and only 30% on innovation. "One of the mantras of the business is to flip that on its head," he says.
Amazon Web Services
2004 Simple Queue Service, a hosted queue for storing messages is introduced
2005 Mechanical Turk, an online marketplace for on-demand workers, debuts
2006 Simple Storage Service (S3) provides on-demand access to Amazon's data store; Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) goes into testing;
2007 DevPay, SimpleDB, and Flexible Payments services go into beta testing; Red Hat Enterprise Linux becomes available on EC2
2008 Elastic Block Store, persistent data storage for EC2, and CloudFront CDN introduced
Elastic IP Addresses and Availability Zones give users control over IP addresses and geographic deployment of EC2 instances, respectively
AWS Premium Support launched
Microsoft, Oracle, and Sun server software become on-demand options on EC2
CHIEF CLOUD OFFICER
Vogels' assignment is to serve, in effect, as a chief cloud officer for the computer industry. A high-mileage schedule has him on the road much of the time. Earlier this month, he flew to San Francisco to attend a CTO roundtable on cloud computing hosted by the Association of Computing Machinery (ACM), and, from there, to London, Amsterdam, and Paris, where he spoke at LeWeb, an industry shindig sponsored by Google, Microsoft, and a dozen other tech companies.
On Dec. 10 at LeWeb, Vogels announced the expansion of Amazon's servers-by-the-hour EC2 service to Europe. A regional cloud minimizes latency and improves redundancy and, equally important, lets companies comply with European regulations requiring that customer data be stored locally. "This addresses the requests of many of our European customers and from companies that want to run instances closer to European customers," Vogels wrote in his All Things Distributed blog.
Vogels started his blog in 2001 while at Cornell, and he continues to post regularly, offering a tech guru's point of view on AWS services and features and an occasional deep dive into the guts of the Amazon infrastructure, such as his treatise on internally developed technology for high-availability storage. The technology, called Dynamo, integrates a bunch of arcane distributed system techniques such as DHTs, consistent hashing, versioning, vector clocks, quorum, and anti-entropy-based recovery. "As far as I know, Dynamo is the first production system to use the synthesis of all of these techniques, and there are quite a few lessons learned from doing so," Vogels wrote. Dynamo isn't exposed as a Web service, though it underlies S3, he added.
Vogels, a native of the Netherlands, developed his technical chops at Vrije University in Amsterdam, where he earned a Ph.D. in computer science. At Cornell, his research focused on large-scale distributed systems, including networking protocols, middleware, and cluster management. "In my eyes, Amazon is probably the world's largest distributed system," he says.
Vogels' academic and research background gives him added authority when talking up cloud computing. Oh, sure, he wears a marketing hat when on stage at industry events, but underneath that hat is the mind of a technologist who hears "cloud" and thinks of loosely coupled software services on a global distributed network operating with near-perfect availability.
Vogels Vitae
Joined Amazon as director of systems research in 2004; promoted to CTO and VP the next year
Computer science researcher at Cornell University from 1994 to 2004, specializing in large-scale distributed systems
Research engineer with INESC, a computer science research institute, from 1991 to 1994
Doctorate in computer science from Vrije University in Amsterdam
Writes All Things Distributed blog and uses Facebook, FriendFeed, LinkedIn, and Twitter
INTERNAL INNOVATION
Within Amazon, a dedicated development team works on each of the major Web services--EC2, S3, SQS, SimpleDB, CloudFront. It's an organizational structure intended to give those teams maximum autonomy. "We believe the groups should own their customers down to the metal," says Bell.
A 10-year company veteran, Bell knows Amazon's IT infrastructure as well as anyone. I first interviewed him eight years ago when Amazon was on a shopping spree for commercial software, licensing products from Excelon, Oracle, Manugistics, SAS Institute, and others. At the time, Bell made the point that Amazon's differentiating features--its personalization and customer-contact capabilities, for example--were internally developed. "You could characterize us almost as a software company," he said.
That's even truer today than it was then. As the demands on Amazon's IT infrastructure have increased through the success of its retail, Web hosting, and AWS businesses, Amazon is building more software and buying less. "There's hardly any third-party software left," says Vogels. "If I could buy things, I would. But vendors haven't reached a point where they can deliver software that can reliably work at Amazon scale."
(Also in that Nov. 6, 2000, InformationWeek story, titled "Amazon's IT Agenda," was a comment by Amazon chief programmer Jeremiah Wilton that foreshadowed the hiring of Vogels a few years later. "Our greatest challenge, from my point of view, has been scaling our systems," Wilton said.)
Bell is responsible for making sure that Amazon's Web services work together in a coordinated fashion, as well as for the business side of AWS. The general managers of each Web service--including Peter De Santis, general manager of EC2, and Alyssa Henry, general manager of S3--report to Bell. Their teams are spinning out new services and features every week or two, and increasingly those capabilities--user-designated "availability zones," block storage, EC2 in Europe, the CloudFront content delivery network--are geared for large companies.
That pace will continue into 2009, with EC2 monitoring, a Web-based management console, load balancing, and autoscaling due soon. Amazon's ability to propagate Web services goes back to architectural decisions made before the term cloud computing was first uttered. Bell puts it this way: "If you're going to build a service in the company, you're going to build it as a Web service, and you're going to build it to be exposed."
In its boilerplate, Amazon says 440,000 developers have signed up for AWS. In fact, they're not all developers; they range from entrepreneurs to enterprise IT pros and everyone in between. Selipsky's team supports that burgeoning population and plays to its diversity. "We want to support any programming language that our customers want--Java, C#, Python, Ruby, PHP," he says.
Charlie Bell
'Werner provides a great translation of what we're doing to the outside world. He's a great communicator,' says Amazon veteran Bell, who oversees Amazon Web Services development.
AWS is a popular platform among startups, Web companies, and software-as-a-service companies. Increasingly, Amazon's customers are household names: Nasdaq, The New York Times, Philips, SanDisk. Eli Lilly is using EC2 to deploy SQL Server/Windows Server instances as needed for research data. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway uses AWS for Web site mirroring, video streaming, and digital image archiving. Selipsky says there are a "slew" of other enterprise customers, including a hedge fund company and a mutual fund company, that haven't been disclosed.
As the early examples demonstrate, enterprise adoption tends to be limited to specific applications; CIOs don't want to commit too much, too soon. Vogels says we've only scratched the surface. When I ask whether FedEx, one of the largest and most sophisticated IT users, could seriously consider AWS as an alternative to running mission-critical apps in its own data centers, he doesn't hesitate. "I would love them to do that," he says. "I think that would be a great benefit to them."
The world of research, Vogels' old stomping ground, is another target market. This month, Amazon introduced AWS Public Data Sets, a no-cost repository for government, research, and other public data. And Amazon and Harvard Medical School co-sponsored a daylong forum in Boston where doctors, biomedical researchers, and other experts discussed how to apply cloud computing. Harvard's Laboratory for Personalized Medicine already uses Oracle on EC2 for genetic testing models and simulations.
SPREADING THE WORD
After spending half a day at Amazon's headquarters, I still had questions for Vogels, but, traveling somewhere in Europe, he had gone silent. Nevertheless, it's easy enough to follow Vogels. He's all over the Web--blogging, Twittering, and talking up cloud computing in interviews and on video.
With his Dutch accent, Vogels comes across as a bit of a Renaissance man--a music buff, photographer, and patron of the arts who speaks four languages and rides a motorcycle. His Twitter posts alternate between references to server optimization and network latency and an appreciation for "marvelous absurdistic physical theater."
I click on a video replay of Kara Swisher's on-stage chat with Vogels at LeWeb. Amazon's CTO tells the audience that the conversation with customers has shifted from cloud security to application deployment. Customers want to know how to move existing applications into the cloud, how much engineering work is involved, and how to exploit the functionality that Amazon makes available, he says.
Vogels, surprisingly, tells Swisher that security isn't the big issue it once was with customers, but he admits that AWS--which has experienced a number of hours-long service outages this year--has work to do in the area of reliability. "There's no excuse for any downtime or failure," he says. "One hundred percent availability is the only goal that you can have."
It's a reminder that, even though Amazon is four years into cloud computing, it's only recently begun addressing the stringent requirements of enterprise customers, and that work is unfinished. Amazon's flagship EC2 service, in beta testing for two years, became generally available just two months ago. Its SimpleDB relational database service is in beta testing. EC2 monitoring, management, load balancing, and autoscaling are still on the road map.
As my deadline approaches, Vogels resurfaces. I ask him about lingering concerns over data governance, security, and reliability in the cloud. He responds via e-mail that Amazon works with customers to address these concerns, but that "no customer has exactly the same needs as another."
In other words, with Bell driving AWS development and Selipsky managing front-line relationships, Vogels will need to keep racking up the frequent-flier miles. As Amazon reaches out to customers, his ability to articulate the benefits of cloud computing will have a lot do with whether they return the embrace. Years of engineering and cloud development are behind Amazon; the bigger job lies ahead.
订阅：
博文 (Atom)