http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719
CNBC presents the definitive report on the defining story of our time. CNBC correspondent David Faber investigates the origins of the global economic crisis, with first person accounts from home buyers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers and investors – most of whom let greed blind them, leading to the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.
2009年3月29日星期日
Weekly Layoff Report:
Layoff Tracker
Double-Digit Days
03.27.09
Layoffs are causing tension everywhere now. The manager of a 3M plant in France was held hostage by angry workers for more than a day this week after it was announced that 110 of the 235 employees at the plant would be let go.
According to U.S. Department of Labor data released Friday, seven states are now enduring double-digit unemployment. In California, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina between 10.1% and 12% are out of work. (Highlights of the week's activity are recorded by the Forbes.com Layoff Tracker, which counts the layoffs at all the nation's 500 largest corporations.)
IBM led the week by planning a cut of 5,000 jobs. That's about 4% of the company's U.S. workforce, and it follows a 2,800-worker layoff in January. IBM shares have fallen only 19% over the past year, while the Standard & Poor's 500 has lost almost 40%. IBM has held to relatively strong projections for 2009, despite ongoing worries about consumer spending. But almost no business can escape layoffs now.
Agilent Technologies isn't so optimistic with its projections. Expecting a 30% drop in some of its revenue streams, the company is cutting 2,700 jobs. That was the only other four-figure workforce cut announced this week. Agilent is also freezing its share buyback program until at least the end of this year.
Wal-Mart is closing an Ohio unit that supports the eye-care centers in the company's stores. That means a layoff of 650 employees. It's part of ongoing cutting at the company, including 1,200 layoffs announced in February.
Shaw Industries, a carpet-weaving subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, is feeling the housing industry's woes and is closing two plants. That will end up idling 600 workers.
Even products for drowning one's woe are struggling due to the consumer spending crunch. Wine company Constellation Brands is slashing 5% of its workforce--roughly 400 workers. The company cites slumps in wine sales in Britain and Australia at the end of last year.
Other lesser players in layoffs this week: Google, 200; Synovus Financial, 200; Cummins, 127; Legg Mason, 120; and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, 50.
The Forbes.com Layoff Tracker, updated daily, currently counts 524,801 layoffs announced at America's 500 largest public companies since Nov. 1, 2008.
Double-Digit Days
03.27.09
Layoffs are causing tension everywhere now. The manager of a 3M plant in France was held hostage by angry workers for more than a day this week after it was announced that 110 of the 235 employees at the plant would be let go.
According to U.S. Department of Labor data released Friday, seven states are now enduring double-digit unemployment. In California, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina between 10.1% and 12% are out of work. (Highlights of the week's activity are recorded by the Forbes.com Layoff Tracker, which counts the layoffs at all the nation's 500 largest corporations.)
IBM led the week by planning a cut of 5,000 jobs. That's about 4% of the company's U.S. workforce, and it follows a 2,800-worker layoff in January. IBM shares have fallen only 19% over the past year, while the Standard & Poor's 500 has lost almost 40%. IBM has held to relatively strong projections for 2009, despite ongoing worries about consumer spending. But almost no business can escape layoffs now.
Agilent Technologies isn't so optimistic with its projections. Expecting a 30% drop in some of its revenue streams, the company is cutting 2,700 jobs. That was the only other four-figure workforce cut announced this week. Agilent is also freezing its share buyback program until at least the end of this year.
Wal-Mart is closing an Ohio unit that supports the eye-care centers in the company's stores. That means a layoff of 650 employees. It's part of ongoing cutting at the company, including 1,200 layoffs announced in February.
Shaw Industries, a carpet-weaving subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, is feeling the housing industry's woes and is closing two plants. That will end up idling 600 workers.
Even products for drowning one's woe are struggling due to the consumer spending crunch. Wine company Constellation Brands is slashing 5% of its workforce--roughly 400 workers. The company cites slumps in wine sales in Britain and Australia at the end of last year.
Other lesser players in layoffs this week: Google, 200; Synovus Financial, 200; Cummins, 127; Legg Mason, 120; and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, 50.
The Forbes.com Layoff Tracker, updated daily, currently counts 524,801 layoffs announced at America's 500 largest public companies since Nov. 1, 2008.
2009年3月26日星期四
IBM may cut 4,000 U.S. jobs
From: www.itworld.com
Union says IBM may cut 4,000 U.S. jobs, shift work to India
by Patrick Thibodeau
March 25, 2009 —
IBM may be getting set to make its largest single workforce reduction thus far this year, according to the Alliance@IBM employee union, which says it has heard that the cutbacks will affect about 4,000 U.S. workers at IBM's Global Business Services unit.
Lee Conrad, the union's national coordinator, said he has been told by IBM employees that the expected job cuts may take place as early as Thursday. That day already has been dubbed "Black Thursday" in one anonymous post on a message board on Alliance@IBM's Web site.
The expected cuts were first reported by The Wall Street Journal, which cited anonymous sources at IBM in a story saying that the company plans to eliminate "a large number" of U.S. jobs at the Global Business Services division and shift more of its work to facilities in India. An IBM spokesman contacted by Computerworld today said that the company doesn't comment on "rumor or speculation."
Conrad said he can't be certain about the size of the latest cutback until IBM actually begins letting workers go. But like the Journal, he added, Alliance@IBM has heard that "big numbers" will be involved and that what may be driving the cuts is "the offshoring of U.S. jobs to India" and the Asia Pacific region.
IBM's U.S. workforce has been shrinking, while its overseas head count has been on the increase. The number of IBM workers in the U.S. dropped from 121,000 to 115,000 during the course of 2008; however, its overall employee count grew by 13,000 people last year. And already this year, the company has cut more than 4,600 jobs in the U.S. and Canada, according to earlier counts by Alliance@IBM.
The union - a Communications Workers of America local that doesn't have enough members to gain official recognition as a bargaining unit - has been the source of most of the information about the recent job cuts made by IBM. The company has confirmed that reductions were made, but it hasn't publicly announced them or said how many workers were affected. In addition, it has refrained from describing the earlier cuts as layoffs, instead saying that they were part of "an ongoing process that we do throughout the year to match skills and resources with our client needs."
IBM and other companies aren't required to notify government officials of layoffs unless the cutbacks reach a threshold set in the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, also known as the WARN Act. The provisions of that law apply when there are 500 or more layoffs at one location. But at IBM, job cuts can be scattered among different facilities in the U.S. and other countries.
Mark Loughridge, IBM's chief financial officer, indicated that some restructuring was underway at the company during a January conference call about its fourth-quarter financial results. In Loughridge's prepared remarks, he said that IBM "will continue our focus on structural changes that reduce our spending levels and improve productivity in 2009."
The message board on the Alliance@IBM Web site lets people post anonymously, so it's hard to gauge the authenticity of comments - but they're often detailed, and they use acronyms that are familiar to IBM employees. In one post today, an anonymous poster wrote: "My manager has not said anything to me yet but I am already preparing myself for the news."
Computerworld
Union says IBM may cut 4,000 U.S. jobs, shift work to India
by Patrick Thibodeau
March 25, 2009 —
IBM may be getting set to make its largest single workforce reduction thus far this year, according to the Alliance@IBM employee union, which says it has heard that the cutbacks will affect about 4,000 U.S. workers at IBM's Global Business Services unit.
Lee Conrad, the union's national coordinator, said he has been told by IBM employees that the expected job cuts may take place as early as Thursday. That day already has been dubbed "Black Thursday" in one anonymous post on a message board on Alliance@IBM's Web site.
The expected cuts were first reported by The Wall Street Journal, which cited anonymous sources at IBM in a story saying that the company plans to eliminate "a large number" of U.S. jobs at the Global Business Services division and shift more of its work to facilities in India. An IBM spokesman contacted by Computerworld today said that the company doesn't comment on "rumor or speculation."
Conrad said he can't be certain about the size of the latest cutback until IBM actually begins letting workers go. But like the Journal, he added, Alliance@IBM has heard that "big numbers" will be involved and that what may be driving the cuts is "the offshoring of U.S. jobs to India" and the Asia Pacific region.
IBM's U.S. workforce has been shrinking, while its overseas head count has been on the increase. The number of IBM workers in the U.S. dropped from 121,000 to 115,000 during the course of 2008; however, its overall employee count grew by 13,000 people last year. And already this year, the company has cut more than 4,600 jobs in the U.S. and Canada, according to earlier counts by Alliance@IBM.
The union - a Communications Workers of America local that doesn't have enough members to gain official recognition as a bargaining unit - has been the source of most of the information about the recent job cuts made by IBM. The company has confirmed that reductions were made, but it hasn't publicly announced them or said how many workers were affected. In addition, it has refrained from describing the earlier cuts as layoffs, instead saying that they were part of "an ongoing process that we do throughout the year to match skills and resources with our client needs."
IBM and other companies aren't required to notify government officials of layoffs unless the cutbacks reach a threshold set in the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, also known as the WARN Act. The provisions of that law apply when there are 500 or more layoffs at one location. But at IBM, job cuts can be scattered among different facilities in the U.S. and other countries.
Mark Loughridge, IBM's chief financial officer, indicated that some restructuring was underway at the company during a January conference call about its fourth-quarter financial results. In Loughridge's prepared remarks, he said that IBM "will continue our focus on structural changes that reduce our spending levels and improve productivity in 2009."
The message board on the Alliance@IBM Web site lets people post anonymously, so it's hard to gauge the authenticity of comments - but they're often detailed, and they use acronyms that are familiar to IBM employees. In one post today, an anonymous poster wrote: "My manager has not said anything to me yet but I am already preparing myself for the news."
Computerworld
2009年3月24日星期二
Tech jobs disappear
Tech jobs disappear at AIG -- and across the U.S.
by Patrick Thibodeau
March 20, 2009 —
As American International Group (AIG) paid out huge bonuses to executives, the company also laid off six information technology workers, according to reports in the local media.
Let's face it, a layoff of six tech workers, even at government bailout king AIG, doesn't normally get noticed outside of such media outlets, a Lubbock, Texas, newspaper in this case. Or to paraphrase what Humphrey Bogart's Rick Blaine told Ingrid Bergman's Ilsa Lund in the film, Casablanca, "it doesn't take much to see that the problems of three six little people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world."
But the AIG layoffs serve as a reminder that IT workers nationally continue to see their jobs tank, according to data from the National Association of Computer Consultant Businesses, an Alexandria, Va.-based group that analyzes U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
IT employment in the U.S. fell by 17,000 jobs in February, ( Download PDF) or less than a half percent, an improvement over December, which saw a decline of 56,000 jobs, or 1.4%, and January, with job cuts of 46,000, or 1.15%.
IT employment, which peaked last November at more than 4 million jobs, now stands at 3,938,800.
As grim as these numbers may seem, IT workers at least in some areas, are doing better than most professions. Nationally, unemployment is at 8%, but the fourth quarter unemployment rate for computer hardware engineers is 1.4% and computer software engineers 1.9%, according to NACCB.
Nonetheless, NACCB is warning that things could get worse for IT if the overall economic climate continues to deteriorate.
One indicator is the number of job postings on the tech job site, Dice. In February, Dice said it had 57,000 job listings, down 35% from the year-ago period. A check today showed 54,000 job listings.
Everyone from President Barack Obama to Congress has been hyperventilating over the bonuses paid to AIG. AIG did not respond by press time to questions seeking the reasons for the IT cutbacks -- whether they were due to outsourcing, IT consolidation or simpy cost-cutting.
Computerworld
by Patrick Thibodeau
March 20, 2009 —
As American International Group (AIG) paid out huge bonuses to executives, the company also laid off six information technology workers, according to reports in the local media.
Let's face it, a layoff of six tech workers, even at government bailout king AIG, doesn't normally get noticed outside of such media outlets, a Lubbock, Texas, newspaper in this case. Or to paraphrase what Humphrey Bogart's Rick Blaine told Ingrid Bergman's Ilsa Lund in the film, Casablanca, "it doesn't take much to see that the problems of three six little people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world."
But the AIG layoffs serve as a reminder that IT workers nationally continue to see their jobs tank, according to data from the National Association of Computer Consultant Businesses, an Alexandria, Va.-based group that analyzes U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
IT employment in the U.S. fell by 17,000 jobs in February, ( Download PDF) or less than a half percent, an improvement over December, which saw a decline of 56,000 jobs, or 1.4%, and January, with job cuts of 46,000, or 1.15%.
IT employment, which peaked last November at more than 4 million jobs, now stands at 3,938,800.
As grim as these numbers may seem, IT workers at least in some areas, are doing better than most professions. Nationally, unemployment is at 8%, but the fourth quarter unemployment rate for computer hardware engineers is 1.4% and computer software engineers 1.9%, according to NACCB.
Nonetheless, NACCB is warning that things could get worse for IT if the overall economic climate continues to deteriorate.
One indicator is the number of job postings on the tech job site, Dice. In February, Dice said it had 57,000 job listings, down 35% from the year-ago period. A check today showed 54,000 job listings.
Everyone from President Barack Obama to Congress has been hyperventilating over the bonuses paid to AIG. AIG did not respond by press time to questions seeking the reasons for the IT cutbacks -- whether they were due to outsourcing, IT consolidation or simpy cost-cutting.
Computerworld
2009年3月23日星期一
China Arrests Monks in Attack
By Gillian Wong
Associated Press
Monday, March 23, 2009; A12
BEIJING, March 22 -- Hundreds of Tibetans attacked a police station and government officials in northwestern China despite heightened security, prompting the arrests Sunday of nearly 100 monks, state media reported.
Six of those arrested for alleged involvement in the attack were caught by police while 89 others turned themselves in, according to the official New China News Agency. All but two were monks, it said.
The protest appeared to be in response to the disappearance of a Tibetan who escaped from police custody in Qinghai province, the news agency report said.
But according to a Tibetan exile, the protest involved as many as 2,000 people and was sparked by the apparent suicide of the Tibetan, a monk being investigated for unfurling a Tibetan flag.
The report said several hundred people -- including nearly 100 monks from the Ragya monastery -- attacked the police station in Ragya, a township in the Tibetan prefecture of Golog, on Saturday, assaulting policemen and government workers.
Some officials were injured slightly in the assault, the report said, without elaborating.
A man who answered the phone at Qinghai's public security department said he had not heard about the attack or the arrests. Phone calls to other police departments and government offices in the area rang unanswered.
The violence is the latest known instance of unrest following a bomb explosion Monday in an unoccupied police station in predominantly Tibetan Ganzi prefecture in Sichuan province. The explosion shattered the building's windows, but no injuries were reported.
In February, Tibetan advocacy groups said a thousand monks gathered at a monastery in Sichuan province's Aba county to protest a ban on celebrating a traditional prayer festival called Monlam. One monk doused himself with gasoline and set himself ablaze.
The violence on Saturday began after a man accused of supporting Tibetan independence escaped from police custody and disappeared, the news report said.
It cited authorities as saying the man fled from the Ragya police station after asking to go to the washroom, prompting a manhunt. It cited a witness as saying he was seen swimming in the Yellow River.
A former resident of the area who now lives in Dharmsala, India, said the protesters were angry because they believed the man, a 28-year-old monk named Tashi Sangpo, jumped in the river to commit suicide after fleeing.
"When Tashi was being interrogated by the officials, he asked their permission to go to the toilet. He then went out and jumped into the Yellow River," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisals against family members living in China. "The dead body is yet to be found."
Associated Press
Monday, March 23, 2009; A12
BEIJING, March 22 -- Hundreds of Tibetans attacked a police station and government officials in northwestern China despite heightened security, prompting the arrests Sunday of nearly 100 monks, state media reported.
Six of those arrested for alleged involvement in the attack were caught by police while 89 others turned themselves in, according to the official New China News Agency. All but two were monks, it said.
The protest appeared to be in response to the disappearance of a Tibetan who escaped from police custody in Qinghai province, the news agency report said.
But according to a Tibetan exile, the protest involved as many as 2,000 people and was sparked by the apparent suicide of the Tibetan, a monk being investigated for unfurling a Tibetan flag.
The report said several hundred people -- including nearly 100 monks from the Ragya monastery -- attacked the police station in Ragya, a township in the Tibetan prefecture of Golog, on Saturday, assaulting policemen and government workers.
Some officials were injured slightly in the assault, the report said, without elaborating.
A man who answered the phone at Qinghai's public security department said he had not heard about the attack or the arrests. Phone calls to other police departments and government offices in the area rang unanswered.
The violence is the latest known instance of unrest following a bomb explosion Monday in an unoccupied police station in predominantly Tibetan Ganzi prefecture in Sichuan province. The explosion shattered the building's windows, but no injuries were reported.
In February, Tibetan advocacy groups said a thousand monks gathered at a monastery in Sichuan province's Aba county to protest a ban on celebrating a traditional prayer festival called Monlam. One monk doused himself with gasoline and set himself ablaze.
The violence on Saturday began after a man accused of supporting Tibetan independence escaped from police custody and disappeared, the news report said.
It cited authorities as saying the man fled from the Ragya police station after asking to go to the washroom, prompting a manhunt. It cited a witness as saying he was seen swimming in the Yellow River.
A former resident of the area who now lives in Dharmsala, India, said the protesters were angry because they believed the man, a 28-year-old monk named Tashi Sangpo, jumped in the river to commit suicide after fleeing.
"When Tashi was being interrogated by the officials, he asked their permission to go to the toilet. He then went out and jumped into the Yellow River," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisals against family members living in China. "The dead body is yet to be found."
2009年3月20日星期五
“六·四”天安门事件20周年
一 引言
二 事件的经过
三 “六·四”运动是人民和平请愿运动
四 1989年春北京没有发生动乱
五 北京在1989年6月初没有发生“暴乱”
六“六·四”屠杀的性质不容质疑
七 戒严是非法之举
八 北京市“游行示威十条”是对表达自由的限制
九 20年的反思
十 结论：没有结束的请愿
一 引言
有五千年文明的中国让世界人民关注她的不是“四大发明”也不是她的宇航员在空中行走，而是一个年轻的中国人在1989年6月4日只身阻挡针对平民的坦克。 1989年6月3日中国当局命令全副武装的军队强行进驻北京和占领天安门广场，在行进过程中军人们向非武装的北京市民开火，导致了大量的伤亡。那一刻环绕着地球的是这样的声音：
“这里是北京国际广播电台。请记住一九八九年六月三日这一天，在中国的首都北京发生了最骇人听闻的悲剧。
成千上万的群众，其中大多是无辜的市民，被强行入城的全副武装的士兵杀害。遇害的同胞也包括我们国际广播电台的工作人员。
士兵驾驶着坦克战车，用机关枪向无数试图阻拦战车的市民和学生扫射。即使在坦克打开通路后，士兵们仍继续不分青红皂白地向街上的人群开枪射击。目击者说有些装甲车甚至辗死那些面对反抗的群众而犹豫不前的步兵。
北京国际电台英语部深深地哀悼在这次悲剧中死难的人们，并且向我们所有的听众呼吁：和我们一起来谴责这种无耻地践踏人权及最野蛮的镇压人民的行径。”
这是中国当局自己的电台播出的新闻，它是其编辑根据其在上班的路上所目睹的情况所写出的新闻稿。新闻播出后不久，即1989年6月4日的凌晨左右，中国人民解放军已经强行占领了北京天安门广场。在天安门广场上手无寸铁的学生在军人枪口押送下，撤出天安门广场。这就是让世人震惊的1989年天安门屠杀事件。
有关中国军队向平民开枪造成大量伤亡的报道，以后不断有录像、照片和当事人的回忆证实。中国官方也从未否定军队动用了武力并造成了大量的平民的伤亡。但是他们说这是“平息反革命暴乱”。多年后，中国当局一方面避讳提起“暴乱”和“平暴”而讳称说是一场“政治风波”，另一方面坚持说1989年发生了否定共产党的“政治动乱”和“反革命暴乱”，声称“平息动乱和反革命暴乱的胜利，巩固了我国的社会主义阵地和十年改革开放的成果，也给党和人民提供了有益的经验教训 ”。
历史事件的性质是以人类所建立的正义和价值观来确定的，不能因为事件多年后的某些社会经济和文化的发展而改变。二十年来，中国当局对国内封锁对“六·四”天安门屠杀的报道和讨论，对外却以改革开放的进步来掩盖其军事镇压平民的反人类性。今天，我们必须要拨乱反正，让中国人知道历史真相，看清历史事件的性质，以避免这种反人性的屠杀事件发生。
二 事件的经过
1989年4月15日，原中国共产党中央委员会总书记胡耀邦去世。在他去世后的几个小时之内，北京大学和其他的大学的学生们通过大小文字报表达了对胡耀邦的悼念，也表达了对中国政治的不满和对中国领导人的批评。学生们的不满来自于中共中央在1987年初因为胡耀邦政治上反对“资产阶级自由化”不力而遭罢黜。4月17日夜北京大学和其他几所大学拥着“ 中国魂”的特大横幅走向北京天安门广场。4月18日他们向全国人民代表大会常务委员会提出了“七条”请愿书，内容如下：
1． 公正评价胡耀邦的政绩，肯定民主自由的宽松的政治环境；
2. 彻底否定“清除精神污染”与“反自由化”运动，并为这次运动中蒙受不白之冤的人平反；
3. 要求党和国家领导人及其子女向全国人民公布其财产状况；
4. 允许民办报纸，开放报禁，制定新闻法；
5. 增加教育经费，提高知识分子的待遇；
6. 取消北京人大常委会违反宪法而制定的限制游行的“十条”；
7. 此次活动作出公开的报道，见诸党政机关报。
以上七条基本上是1989年民主运动的基本政治主张，归纳起来为两个请愿诉求：
一是要求自由和宽松的政治环境；二是反对腐败，即当时最响亮的口号“反官倒”。其中没有提出任何选举在内的民主要求，没有要求改换政府，更谈不上推翻一个政府。当日学生们经过十多个小时的静坐后，作为全国人民代表的体育转播播音员宋世雄，全国青联主席刘延东和北京市教育局局长曹西平出来接受了“七条”。
当晚约8时左右，静坐的学生解散，但是静坐外围的学生拉着“中国魂”的横幅到了中国中央政府所在的“新华门”前示威。这就发生了“4.19”和 “4.20”“冲击新华门”事件。在这个事件当中，中央的有关报道强调“有人喊‘打倒共产党’的口号”。这种报道激化了学生的情绪，因为大多数学生当时没有这种政治诉求。
4月20日后，北京的几所主要大学开始组织学生自治会。中共中央决定在4月22日在人民大会堂举行“胡耀邦追悼大会”。当得知北京当局将封闭天安门广场不让学生到天安门参加追悼大会后，北京主要大学的自治组织决定进驻天安门集体参加“胡耀邦的追悼大会”。当晚，各大学的学生突破封锁，凯旋般的进驻了天安门。中共中央在学生们已经进驻天安门广场的情况下决定允许同学们在广场聆听追悼大会。大会结束后，几位学生代表在人民大会堂台阶上“跪递”他们的请愿书，结果中国当局不予理睬。这件事情后，学生开始了罢课。
4月25日中共中央在北京主要学校和有关部门口头传达了邓小平的讲话，指出中国发生了政治动乱，要加强“人民民主专政”。4月26日人民日报根据邓小平的讲话，发表了《旗帜鲜明地反对动乱》的社论。社论指出极少数人“打着民主的旗号破坏民主法制，其目的是要搞散人心，捣乱全国，破坏安定团结的政治局面。这是一场有计划的阴谋，是一次动乱”。
这个社论是1989年运动的转折点。尽管社论说是“极少数人”，但是学生们认为那只是文字游戏，他们认为社论就是否定学生们的政治诉求，矛头就是指向学生。他们认为“我们没有搞动乱”。于是他们再次走上街头。4月27日发生了第一次最大规模的游行。游行得到了北京市市民的热烈支持。他们高喊“大学生万岁”并且送来了面包和水。有的学生的母亲也到游行队伍，母女拥抱着，享受着那自由的一刻。事前布置的军警在北京市民和学生面前，显得苍白无力。
“4.27”大游行后，政府有关当局开始和学生对话。对话断断续续持续了几个星期，没有任何结果。5月4日赵紫阳在亚行的讲话要求在“冷静、理智、克制、秩序，和在民主和法制的轨道上解决问题”。赵讲话后，学生们宣布复课。
因为政府和学生的对话没有取得实质性进展，中央没有改变“动乱”的定性，政府对学生们的政治诉求也没有诚意予以接受，5月13日，在前苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫来访前一天，以北京大学为首的学生开始了在天安门广场绝食。他们提出了绝食宣言，其诉求也很简单：
（1）要求政府迅速与学生举行实质性真诚对话，
（2）要求政府承认他们没有搞动乱而是在进行一场爱国的民主运动。
北京市民包括警察和军事院校的学生都走上街头，支持学生的政治诉求。人民日报和中央电视台曾报道有上百万人走上街头。北京的工人们也组织起来，成立了中国历史上第一个工人自治会。此时，声援北京学生运动已经波及到全国。许多大城市的学生和市民都走上了街头。外地的学生也赶到北京参加绝食和声援绝食。
5月16日，赵紫阳在同戈尔巴乔夫的谈话中明确世界，中共中央在1978就决定邓小平是中国的掌舵人。
5月19日，中国当局决定在5月20日对北京部分地区实行戒严。戒严令由国务院的名义发布，并成立了“解放军戒严指挥部”。当时的中共中央总书记赵紫阳因为反对戒严出席“戒严”大会，他在5月19日凌晨看望了学生后就被软禁，直到他在2005年1月去世。
5 月20日后，北京的学生和市民们开始了一场反对戒严的活动。长期作为首都的北京，100年来他们经历了无数次的反抗政府的活动，见证了几个政府的更迭，但是没有一个政府命令军队进城来镇压学生运动。北京市的妇女，老人来了，工人们来了，政府的官员也来了，甚至有些警察也来了，他们来到戒严的军车面前，劝说着满脸稚气的解放军“娃娃”，让他们撤军。军人们犹豫了。有些将军们也开始反对戒严。
同时，人们要求全国人民代表大会常务委员会讨论决定戒严的合法性和合理性。全国人大常委会下次开会的时间是6月20日。包括有57名（后有4名代表撤出）人大常委会委员签名的公开信要求召开全国人大常委会特别会议。人们开始要求国家的最高权力机关讨论“罢免李鹏总理”和“取消戒严”的议题，要求当权者按照宪法的规定和法律的程序来解决政治问题。
军队在各种反对的声音下，在北京郊区停滞不前。本来，这是个最好的机会让中共党内来解决国内的政治纷争。可是，面对人民改革的呼声，特别是面对人民要求通过 “全国人民代表大会”来解决政治纷争，邓小平和其他中共中央的当权者没有耐心和信心，于是决定军队在6月3日不惜一切代价强行进军北京市区，占领广场，驱赶学生，用军事行动来解决非武装的和平集会和示威。这就发生了天安门“六·四”屠杀。
从镇压以后的政府官方文件和对“暴乱者”的审判中，所有的“暴乱”行为都是发生在军队前行进驻北京天安门广场的过程中。伤亡也发生在6月3日夜和4日的凌晨。以下是网上的一个较为中立和严肃的“百科全书”的报道：
6 月3日，中共中央决定清场。当天下午4时，杨尚昆、李鹏、乔石和姚依林等召开军政会议，指令翌日6时前要完成任务，并宣布“如遇阻拦，戒严部队可以采取各种自卫措施和一切手段予以排除”。当晚7时，中央电视台新闻联播播放戒严部队紧急通告，宣布“戒严部队、公安干警和武警部队有权采取一切手段强行处置，一切后果由组织者肇事者负责。”
晚上10时后，天安门与长安街的形势急转直下。军队入城后遭到市民阻挠，军队开枪，其中木樨地是死伤最多的焦点。该处聚集数千人，部分人用碎砖头砸打解队，军队立即一排排冲上大桥，边喊着“人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人”的口号，边向投石头的市民开枪。
从这时起，军队时而向天开枪，时而对着人群扫射，有人中弹倒下。民众不断向后退，高喊：“法西斯！流氓政府！杀人犯！”军队用冲锋枪向骂声扫射，约百名学生和市民倒在血泊中，大部分立刻被送往旁边的复兴医院。复兴门外大街两旁的市民从自家窗户上探出头来痛骂，也有人从窗口上往马路上投东西，军队开枪还击，从木墀地到全国总工会约五百米左右的路段，两旁建筑物都被打得火星四溅，其中22号楼、24号楼两幢部长楼有3人在楼上被子弹打死，当中据报包括人大法律委员会副主任委员宋汝尊的女婿。
根据BBC现场报道，解放军从卡车上不分目标的向人群射击；在天安门广场的一次扫射中，她自己被尸体绊倒，几码之外被当场射杀的还有两人，重伤倒地不起的两人；之前北京某儿童医院20分钟内送来40多名遭枪击的重伤者，其中包括妇女和老人，不少人是在自己家中中弹，其中有两人已死亡。有说一些死者遗体被戒严部队埋在各处，但说法并未得到证实，但一些有录像却显示解放军直接在长安大街向市民开枪。
广场上的学生虽然知道镇压开始，但以为军人只用橡胶子弹和催泪弹，最多是被军人押走。此时不断有人跑入广场紧急报信，说明军队荷枪实弹扫射示威者，广场陷入惊恐。
零晨1时，天安门以西约四公里的复兴门传出枪声，军队向堵塞他们的群众开枪，最少逾30人死亡，200多人受伤，复兴门外医院接收大量死伤者。1时30分，北京市政府和戒严部队发出《紧急通告》，内容说：
“ 首都今晚发生了严重的反革命暴乱。暴徒们猖狂袭击解放军指战员，抢军火，烧军车，设路障，绑架解放军官兵，妄图颠覆中华人民共和国，推翻社会主义制度。人民解放军多日来保持了高度克制，现在必须坚决反击反革命暴乱。首都公民要遵守戒严令规定，并同解放军密切配合，坚决捍卫宪法，保卫伟大的社会主义祖国和首都的安全。凡在天安门广场的公民和学生，应立即离开，以保证戒严部队执行任务。凡不听劝告的，将无法保证其安全，一切后果完全由自己负责”。
中国官方资料称，《通告》内容广播后，至零晨2时，几十万人的广场只剩下数千名学生和市民。零晨2时20分，军队开进广场，施放催泪弹，部队从广场南面的前门向中央推进，沿途向高空发射照明弹，群众向天安门广场北面后退。据报中枪者包括徒手阻拦军队的平民以及旁观的民众，也包括现场抢救的医务人员，另外有一队学生（包括北京体育学院学生方政）被军队坦克辗压，至少五人被压死，九人被压伤。
根据陈希同1989年6月30日的报告，“暴乱中有 3000多名非军人受伤，200余人死亡，包括36名大学生。这当中，有罪有应得的暴徒，有被误伤的群众，还有正在现场执行任务的医护人员、联防人员和维护秩序工作队员等。对于被误伤的群众和执行任务中受伤害的人员，政府要认真地做好善后工作”。
根据综合报道，死亡的人数远远高于陈希同的数字。仅就北京13家医院的统计，死亡人数在三日晚就达479人。但是20年过去了，中国官方没有进一步的调查“六·四”事件，死亡人数也没有进一步的核对。即便按照中国政府的定性，政府也应当甄别哪些人是“暴徒”，哪些是误伤的市民并加以和善后补偿。然而，这件事情没有做。人民大学教授丁子霖19岁的儿子在“平息反革命暴乱”中被枪杀致死，至今政府对于她儿子的死没有一个正式的定性和赔偿。以丁子霖为领导的一些受难者妈妈组成了“天安门母亲”，要求中国政府调查“六·四”事件，要求政府让她们公开和不受干扰地悼唁他们他们死去的亲人。这样一个简单的要求，也没有得到政府的答复，并且她们一直受到当局的骚扰。
三 “六·四”运动是人民和平请愿运动
从1989年4月15日到6月4日止，中国发生了以北京天安门广场为中心、以学生为主导并得到全国各界人士支持的和平请愿运动。请愿就是公民对向政府机关提出各种诉求的活动。请愿往往通过言论自由或游行示威集会等自由权利来表达。在多数情况下，请愿活动是要求政府当局在现有的宪法和法律内进行。
“六·四”请愿的主要诉求是4月17日学生们在天安门人民英雄纪念碑前提出的“七条”。如前所述，这“七条”归纳起来就是包括新闻自由在内的言论表达自由的要求和包括制定“阳光法”在内的“反官倒”即反腐败的要求。在以邓小平为首的中国当局在4月25日认定学生的请愿活动是“动乱”后，学生们加上了“摘掉动乱帽子”的请愿。在当局决定在北京市区实行戒严后，请愿者提出了全国人民代表大会“罢免李鹏”和“取消戒严”的诉求。
以上所有的请愿要求都在中国宪法和法律允许的范围之内。宪法第三十五条规定“中华人民共和国公民有言论、出版、集会、结社、游行、示威的自由”。所以学生正式要求当局保证和落实这些自由。宪法第四十一条规定“中华人民共和国公民对于任何国家机关和国家工作人员，有提出批评和建议的权利；对于任何国家机关和国家工作人员的违法失职行为，有向有关国家机关提出申诉、控告或者检举的权利”。宪法第二十七条规定“一切国家机关和国家工作人员必须依靠人民的支持，经常保持同人民的密切联系，倾听人民的意见和建议，接受人民的监督，努力为人民服务”。这就是人民的请愿权利。
宪法第二条规定“中华人民共和国的一切权力属于人民。人民行使国家权力的机关是全国人民代表大会和地方各级人民代表大会”。宪法第六十二条和第六十三条规定全国人民代表大会监督宪法的实施，选举产生国务院总理并可以罢免之。宪法第六十七条规定，全国人民大会常务委员会监督国务院的工作，有权撤销国务院制定的与同宪法、法律相抵触的行政法规、决定和命令。所以要求通过全国人大及其常委会来罢免总理李鹏和取消戒严是宪法赋予人民的权利。当时请愿者要求邓小平下台，也是要求中国革除军事寡头政治的合理要求。因为邓小平只是一个中央军事委员会主席，但是却实际操纵中国的政治。
综上所述，“六·四”请愿活动没有提出颠覆宪法或在宪法之外重新建立一个政治制度的诉求。他们甚至没有将“选举”和“修宪”等民主改革作为主要诉求。在绝食最紧张的时候，请愿者提出的是“维护宪法”，在天安门广场成立的是“首都各界爱国维宪联席会”。在“4.27”大游行的时候，学生们打出了“拥护中国共产党”的口号。这些都说明，请愿活动没有意图“否定中国共产党”搞动乱。请愿者至多是要求共产党作进一步的政治改革，进一步保证人民的自由权利。
“ 六·四”请愿活动都是通过和平的方式进行的。这些活动包括游行、集会和结社、对话、静坐和绝食。绝食虽然将请愿活动带到一个激烈的高度，但那是以请愿绝食者自己的生命来换取人民的自由，这和当局用军队自动枪和坦克来剥夺请愿者的生命是不可同日而语的。在请愿期间，请愿者和全国的声援的人民没有通过暴力、暗杀、搞武装、政变或其他非和平的手段来达到目的。“六·四”请愿运动坚持了和平原则。
四 1989年春北京没有发生动乱
中国当局早在4月25日就将学生运动定为动乱。这个“动乱”的定性激化了政府和学生之间的矛盾。学生们最后以“绝食”来要求摘掉“动乱”的帽子。中国当局不妥协，坚持认定学潮是动乱并认为“动乱”发展成了所谓的“暴乱”。今天，这个“动乱”的帽子该去掉了。
在传统的汉语词汇里没有“动乱”一词。“动乱”或“社会动乱”是现代的用法，1966年到1976的文化革命被称为“十年动乱”，成为人民对“动乱”理解的主要事例。在那十年里，中国发生了各派别之间的武斗，抢夺武器仓库，“地富反坏右”和走资派等被殴打、游街，国家法律全部无效，中国国家主席也被非法关押致死。1989年没有发生这些事情，甚至连点迹象都没有。
按照传统词典对“乱”的解释，“乱”是无秩序，那么，“动乱”应当是非常严重或极度的社会失序。1989年4月北京没有发生非常严重或极度社会失序的情况。中国当局是在“4.26社论”里将学潮定为动乱的。这个社论在1989年4月 25日晚间播出。所以，我们要依据史料来判定中国的北京在1989年4月25日之前的社会基本秩序是否遭到严重破坏。
从1989年4月 15日到25 日，这10天里，发生了一些游行示威活动。这些活动主要有：“4.17”的学生游行和“4.18”在人民大会堂的静坐。这个静坐已经在全国人民代表大会的代表接受了“七条”后和平解散；“4.19”和“4.20”学生们在新华门前示威；“4.22”学生集体到天安门广场参加旁听胡耀邦追悼大会；以及学生们 “跪拜请愿”被拒绝后开始罢课。可是在这些活动中没有发生任何“暴力”或其他危害人民生命和财产的行为；北京市的治安没有因为这些示威活动而变恶化；北京市的各国家机关，工厂和事业单位的工作秩序没有受到实质性影响；北京市市民生活正常而有序地进行。如此而言，“动乱”何在？
中国当局讲的 “动乱”是以其游行示威的政治诉求来决定的。邓小平最先将学潮定为“政治动乱”：“这不是一般的学潮，而是一场否定共产党的领导、否定社会主义制度的政治动乱”。人民日报“4.26”社论为了在文字上不打击一大片，没有说是“政治动乱”而只说是“动乱”，但是明确指出动乱的实质是“要从根本上否定中国共产党的领导，否定社会主义制度”。事情很清楚，当局是以其“乱”背后的动机和思想倾向也可以说是以其乱的性质来决定“乱”的程度，而不是以“乱”的程度来决定其法律性质和采取法律措施。
一个社会是否发生了动乱，不能依据行为者主观上的政治诉求来决定。首先，中国承认的联合国《世界人权宣言》和中国的宪法都确定了人民的表达自由。如果将和平的政治诉求作为确定动乱的标准，那就是否定人民言论和其他表达自由。其次，如果以其行为的性质或者以行为背后的动机和思想原则决定的是否发生了动乱，那么等于“治乱”的法律措施目标是人们的思想。法律不能以人的思想来惩罚人，这是当代世界各国包括中国都确认的基本法律原则。中国领导人一边不得不承认这个原则，一边却违反这个规则，无时无刻控制人民的思想和惩罚他们不喜欢的有思想的人。这是中国1989年“动乱”的渊源。
有人会说，非法游行示威本身就是动乱。游行示威无论合法与否都是一种表达的行为。如果说乱是无秩序， 动乱是非常严重或极度的社会失序，那么非法的行为不一定造成社会极度失序。北京学生们在1989年4月的游行无论是否非法都是有组织有秩序的。
有人会说非法占领天安门广场是动乱。天安门广场就是人民政治表达的一个公共地方。“非法占领”广场至多只是乱或违法，而非“动乱”。这是因为这个“乱”不影响当地人民群众正常的生活秩序。5月13日开始的天安门广场绝食，是在宣布“动乱”之后，其本身是要求摘掉“动乱帽子”的行为。即便在天安门广场绝食是“ 动乱”，它也没有实质性地或严重地影响人民的生活秩序和国家的正常政治活动。绝食虽然使欢迎苏联前总统戈尔巴乔夫的仪式没有能在天安门广场举行，但是，其国家欢迎仪式还是在别的地方隆重举行。国家的政治活动还是在正常的进行。
戒严后，北京的学生并没有撤离广场。可以说戒严并没有终止所谓的“动乱”。但是，这个“乱”没有影响北京人民的正常生活。北京市的社会治安和生活秩序在北京学生占领广场下，不但没有受到影响，甚至变好了。戒严后的第二天5月21日中央电视台晚间新闻报道了如下采访：
街头一位推自行者的妇女对记者说，作为首都公民，我们能够自己管理自己，自己完全能够维持秩序。
一位男子说，过去街上车碰着车就要吵架，现在都互相理解，招招手就走了。
一位五十来岁的男子说，我是外地出差来京的，从打戒严令发布之前，据我观察，街头交通秩序是好的，虽然人多，走车也多，但秩序非常好，因为有学生在帮助警察维持秩序。
记者问一位售货员：“现在副食品供应还畅通吧？”售货员：”对，挺畅通的，而且也没有什么抢购”。
人民的请愿活动就是人民最大的节日。当局为什么要将人民和平且有秩序的请愿示威活动看作动乱？目的就是为镇压“反对派”和扼杀人民政治上改革开放的要求找借口。实际上，这是将人民推向对立面的顽固政治手段，只会带来社会更大的动乱和人民的生命财产的损失。如果当时的掌权者的邓小平不将学生的请愿活动定为动乱，那么学生的要求就有可能在“冷静、理智、克制、秩序和在民主和法制的轨道上解决问题”。那样的话，后面的屠杀就有可能避免。
五 北京在1989年6月初没有发生“暴乱”
中国当局派军队血腥镇压1989年的人民请愿运动的理由是“北京发生了反革命暴乱”。在政治运动中发生的非法行为在很多民主国家或非民主国家发生过。中国现代史上也发生过。1976年的天安门事件在行为的方式上一样有违法或动乱的表现。但是，无论在世界近代史上或中国近现代史上，用军队来镇压一个大规模的非武装的群众运动是非常少见的。中国当时是否发生了不得不靠军事镇压的“暴乱”不仅是一个事实的判定工作，也是中国当局重新评价“六·四”事件的一个最基本出发点。
赵紫阳在1997年9月12日给中共中央的信中对此讲道:
“那次学潮不管存在什么偏激、错误和可指责之处，把它定性为‘反革命暴乱’是没有根据的。既然不是反革命暴乱，就不应该采用武装镇压的手段去解决”。作为当时中共中央第一把手的赵紫阳的这个判断，可以说是分析军事镇压合法性和合理性的核心问题。
为了分析的方便，我们必须对“暴乱”有一个基本定性。暴乱不是一个确定的法律词汇。中国法律对在什么情况下可以采取军事镇压没有作出明确规定。参考中国 1996年的戒严法关于导致戒严的动乱、暴乱或骚乱的“严重性”、“紧急性”和戒严的“必要性”的有关规定，导致直接军事镇压的暴乱一定有大规模的“暴力 ”或“武力”行为或事件发生，这种暴力已经导致了相当规模的人民生命的丧失并且威胁着人民的生命安全；这种“暴力”行为必须是达到了一般的警力不能控制的程度以至于不得不用有组织的大规模军事镇压。所以，“暴乱”不能包括一般的违法行为或小范围内和短时间的团伙性行为。暴乱不能包括“非武装”的群众性集会或游行。
同时，在因果关系上，大规模的暴力行为是因，发生在前，军事镇压是果。
通过以下几个方面的分析，我们认为中国当时没有发生暴乱。
第一，中国当局自己所指控的“暴乱”行为没有证据
关于在“六·四”前发生了反革命暴乱的情况，官方唯一报道来自于陈希同1989年6月30日在第七届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第八次会议上的报告。
在报告的第六节，陈希同指控动乱的组织者和策划者占领广场，“每日耗资10万余元，而且开始非法采购武器”。关于这一指控，除了陈希同的这个报告外，当局在镇压后没有提供任何进一步的证明，也没有一个所谓的动乱策划者被指控“非法采购武器”。
该报告的第七节，对“暴乱”作了专门报道，其标题就是“极少数人是怎样挑起反革命暴乱的”。陈希同说正是在下面描述的万分紧急的关头，“中共中央、国务院、中央军委不得不下定决心，命令驻守在首都周围的戒严部队，强行开进，平息反革命暴乱”。按照他的说法，北京已经发生了“反革命暴乱”。
首先，他指控，引发暴乱的一个事件是六月一日发生的一辆武警的吉普车因车祸轧死了一个人。他说，极少数人却有意把车祸同戒严部队按计划进城的行动联系起来，“大造谣言，说是戒严部队的开道车故意轧死学生，鼓动不明真相的人，要抢夺尸体，举行抬棺大游行。一时间，人心浮动，气氛紧张。经过这样的煽动和鼓噪，暴乱的火就被他们点了起来”。实际上，在人民日报第二天报导了车祸后，这个事件没有对参与学潮的学生和领导产生实际上的影响。至今为止，我们没有看到北京市民或学生因煽动车祸而被起诉。
按照陈希同的说法，暴乱开始于6月3日凌晨，“当部分戒严部队按计划进入警戒目标的过程中，就有人有组织地煽动一些人在建国门、南河沿、西单、木樨地等路口阻拦大小车辆，设置路障，拦截军车、殴打战士，抢夺军用物资。曹各庄附近12辆军车被拦。从燕京饭店门前经过的战士被强行搜身。电报大楼前的军车轮胎被扎穿，并被隔离墩围住”。
这个报告中关于“殴打战士，抢夺军用物资”的报导，没有得到其他任何独立的资料印证。实际上当时的报道是，北京市民给军人送吃的，送喝的，以“人民子弟兵爱人民”的口号，劝说军人撤退。资料表明，北京市民没有武装拦截军车。和平的拦截军车根本谈不上为暴乱。即便有军车轮胎被扎，此种行为远远不能当作暴乱。
陈希同的“暴乱”说的另外一个指控是“在拦截、砸抢军车的同时，一伙暴徒围堵和冲击国家机关和重要部门。他们冲人民大会堂、冲中宣部、冲广播电视部，冲中南海的西门和南门。保卫这些机关的武警战士和公安干警数十人负伤”。陈希同没有说明这种冲击的方式，严重性，公安干警负伤的严重程度。
实际上，从五月以来就有些人在这些机构门前或附近进行和平抗议。他们没有武装，没有使用其他武器，那里也没有发生什么伤亡。
陈希同对北京发生的“暴乱”比较具有煽动性说法是，关于高自联和工自联的头头们分发武器。他说：
“[6 月3日]下午5时许，非法组织“高自联”和“工自联”的头头，在天安门广场分发了菜刀、匕首、铁棍、铁链子和带尖的竹竿，声言“抓住军警就要往死里打”。 “工自联”大广播中大肆叫嚣，要“拿起武器推翻政府”。还有一伙暴徒纠集了上千人，推倒西单附近一个建筑工地的围墙，抢走大批施工工具和钢筋、砖块等，准备打巷战。他们的广播站不断播放如何制造和使用燃烧瓶、如何堵烧军车之类的“知识”，进行教唆和挑动。他们策划利用第二天是星期天的时机，煽动更多的人上街，发动更大规模的打、砸、抢、烧，造成一个群众暴动的态势，一举推翻政府，夺取政权”。
关于高自联和工自联的头头分发菜刀匕首等武器之说，陈希同是当着全世界人民面前造谣撒谎。中国当局镇压后没有关于21个通缉的学生运动领袖、黑手王军涛和陈子民等，以及工自联的“头头”韩东方、李进进等这些人发放武器的镜头，照片，或任何文字的具体报道。更奇怪的是，镇压后被逮捕的高自联和工自联的头头没有一个因为“发放武器”而被起诉。当局也没有提供关于那些“头头”之外的其他动乱者发放武器的具体的证据。在6月4日凌晨军队在天安门血腥清场后没有任何报道说军队收缴了任何武器。实际上，那些学生们清场的时候“依然是赤手空拳，手无寸铁”。
自5月20日宣布戒严后，就有些人在广场教导学生如何防止有可能发射的烟雾弹对人体的伤害。他们是在做些保护自己的事情。如果有市民或学生宣传如何抵制军车，那么这本身不是暴乱，而是宣传抵制军队镇压学生。逻辑上，只有军队强行进驻北京，才会遇到抵抗。这说明，军队镇压的是抵抗者，而不是镇压已经施行暴力的暴乱者。
第二， 中国在“平暴”后的审判中没有判决一个“在军队开枪前”的“暴乱分子”，所有被关押和审判的“暴徒”都是对军队镇压的抵抗
从1989年镇压后所揭示的资料表示，中国当时的决策者已经下定决心，命令驻守在首都周围的戒严部队，强行开进，占领天安门广场，用暴力解决国内的政治纷争。英勇的北京市民对当局用军队来解决非武装的和平政治抗议进行了抵抗。所谓的平息反革命暴乱，只是一个借口。
镇压后，被审判的动乱的组织者和策划者，没有一个被指控组织暴乱。被陈希同指控的工自联的主要头头，没有一个判刑。有些工人纠察队的领导人被判刑，但那是因为他们参与了抵抗军队开枪。同时，镇压后所报道的“暴徒”都是在军队强行占领天安门的过程中产生的。在此之前，他们是良民。所以，军队来平息暴乱是本末倒置。
第三，北京市戒严期间其治安状况良好，骚乱来自戒严后，来自北京市民对“戒严”的抵抗。以下是人民日报所报道的戒严第二天和第6天的报道：
《北京戒严第二天》：本报北京5月22日凌晨4时50分讯：国务院在北京部分地区实行戒严的命令生效业已40多小时。在政府划定的戒严区域内，仍未见到异于往日的发展情况。
21日星期日，天安门广场上，和平请愿的首都的和从外地来的大批大学生比肩静坐。东西长安街上，人流夜以继日；数架军用直升机在低空往复掠过，撒下用大字号写的李鹏总理讲话传单，引起阵阵骚动。
戒严令发出以后，广大市民担心执行戒严的解放军进城后发生流血事件，夜间在通向郊区的一些主要交通路口设置道路障碍。城市公共汽车、电车已中断两天。地铁停运。东西长安街等主要街道，群众自动维护交通秩序，指挥过往的各种车辆和行人。一些居民给本报打电话，抱怨看不到报纸，拿不到牛奶。入夜，在用各种大型车辆及其其他什物设起路障的许多交通路口，又聚集起黑压压的人群。
这篇报道指出，北京市民只是抱怨拿不到报纸和牛奶。这说明戒严导致了北京市的治安情况的恶化。但是情况仍然不是那么严重，北京市民的正常生活没有受到影响，工人照常上班，中小学生照常上课，书声朗朗。以下是关于戒严第六天的报道：
本报北京26日凌晨讯，昨天，北京烈日当空。下午起，东西长安街和广场周围的游行队伍一时不见头尾。从横幅来看，有来自科研、教育、卫生、新闻等单位和部分工厂的。也有不少是外地学生。长安街交通一度中断。
北京各大小副食店和农贸市场，蔬菜肉蛋等生活必需品充足，货架摊位琳琅满目。据北京人民广播电台报道，全市工业系统的职工出勤率一直在80%左右，大多数企业事业单位的工作秩序基本稳定，中小学校书声朗朗。
以上就是“暴乱”前几天的情况。如此良好的社会秩序，怎么会突然爆发了“暴乱”？唯一的解释是，军队要强行进入北京。而军队的对手则是非武装的学生和市民。
第四，中共自己当时最高领导人也认为将学潮“定性为‘反革命暴乱’是没有根据的”。赵紫阳的话对于分析当时的政治形势是非常重要的。首先，他是中共最高领导人。他掌握有大量的信息和内部通报。同时，客观的材料也支持赵紫阳的判断。要驳倒赵紫阳的判断，必须要用充分的史料。到目前为止，我们还没有看到可以驳倒他的判断的史料。
六 “六·四”屠杀的性质不容质疑
军队向非武装的群众开枪就是屠杀。中国军人在1989年6月4日前夜和当天对非武装的北京市民开枪并用坦克车碾平民而造成上千人的伤亡后，全世界的主要媒体，包括香港、台湾和其他海外华人都认为中国人民解放军所谓的“平息反革命暴乱”是对人民的屠杀。当时有人称军人屠杀了上万人。仅从死亡的人数来看，这个说法是夸大的。但是，历史不会因为实际死亡人数比最初发生屠杀时人们在愤怒之下报称的死亡人数少而改变其屠杀的性质。
中国共产党政府纪念的“五一”国际劳动节，就是纪念芝加哥警察镇压几十万请愿的工人，当时工人们首先扔了炸弹，所以“暴乱”发生在先。但是当时没有军人介入。警察开枪了，只是导致了4名工人的死亡。这个事件称之为“干草市场屠杀”事件。按照中国政府给出的死亡人数，中国的军人“六·四”枪杀了近三百平民，还不算是屠杀？
我们认为解放军的“平暴”是“屠杀”不仅仅基于军人造成的伤亡的数字，而且还基于镇压的性质和镇压的对象等情况。历史资料表明，北京没有发生暴乱。那里发生的是得到多数中国共产党党员和普通中国公民支持的人民请愿运动。人民日报和中央电视台报道了北京百万人上街游行支持学生，要求中国当局与学生对话。
《北京青年报》1989年5月19日第 1296期发表的调卷表示，90%的答卷者认为学生的运动是爱国民主运动并且参加或支持了运动。《中国妇女报》1989年5月19日第462号报道了两个妇女党员的心声。她们说：“北京大学生绝食请愿, 实在是万不得已。这恐怕是有史以来最伟大的爱国主义运动。但目前绝食已有六天 , 声援活动波及全国。这说明追求政治民主是民心所向,党心所向”。他们希望中共总书记和国务院总理“去进行真诚的对话”。
中国共产党的最高领导人赵紫阳也要求通过对话协商来解决政治纠纷。人民的请愿是中国人民在解放思想改革开放的进程中和平的改革进程的一部分，本可以通过协商对话和全国人民代表大会制度的立法和监督程序予以解决。可是以邓小平为首的军事政治寡头于人民的呼声不顾，动用军队来阻断了这个和平和民主的进程。军队不合适地被拖入到国内和平的政治斗争中里，成为政治寡头镇压对立派的工具，1989年的中国军人扮演了政治斗争工具的不光彩的角色。让历史记住这个耻辱。
军队参加戒严并向平民开火违背了军队的基本职责。中华人民共和国宪法第二十九条明文规定：“中华人民共和国的武装力量属于人民。它的任务是巩固国防，抵抗侵略，保卫祖国，保卫人民的和平劳动，参加国家建设事业，努力为人民服务。”宪法已经明确规定军队属于人民，主要职责是抵抗侵略。宪法在这里没有赋予军队参与党内政治斗争解决人民政治请愿的职责，甚至都没有提到“维护社会秩序”或“制止动乱”的职责。
1989年的中国军人违背了军队的政治领导的基本原则。军队本身没有也不能有其政治决策功能。它是一部机器，由国家的政治机关决定。中国的中央军事委员会主席只是国家军事机器的一个指挥者或操纵者，他受制于中共中央，也就是说“党指挥枪”，也受制于“全国人民代表大会”，即军队属于人民。宪法规定“中央军事委员会主席对全国人民代表大会和全国人民代表大会常务委员会负责”（宪法第94条）。可是，中共中央总书记赵紫阳因为反对戒严从5月19日后就被软禁。全国人民代表大会常务委员会委员长万里却“因病”被滞留在上海，目的是不让全国人民代表大会常务委员会开会来决定人民的请愿。当时有57名全国人大常委会委员签名的一份公开信呼吁立即召开全国人大常委紧急会议。人们还呼吁“每一位全国人大常委会委员，每一位全国人大代表，投下神圣的一票，废除戒严令，罢免李鹏总理职务”。尽管全国人大紧急会议可能不会召开，人民仍然期待预定的6月20日的全国人大常委会会议来讨论“罢免李鹏”和“取消戒严”的议案。
国家军事委员会主席邓小平害怕用这个合法程序来解决政治问题。于是，他要先用武力将请愿运动镇压下去，在没有反对声音的情况下召开全国人大常委会议。人民的代议机关在这里只是个列宁所批判的“橡皮图章”和投票机器。人民的合法和和平政治诉求的进程在军队的枪声下停止了。国家军事委员会主席凌驾于中共中央和全国人民代表大会之上。这是违背宪法，违背人民意志的暴政。人民对这种暴政的反抗是正义之举，符合联合国的宪章和中国承认的《世界人权宣言》，也符合中国的宪法。对这种正义和合法行为的镇压就是“屠杀”。
有人会说，中国军人在1989年6月4日是向戒严的抵抗者开枪，他们是为了协助戒严以恢复北京的正常秩序。首先这是假定，因为中国当局当时明确宣布军队强行进驻北京是因为北京市从6月3日凌晨起发生了“反革命暴乱”。这就是说，第一，这个公告排除了6月3日之前所谓的违法“动乱”活动是暴力活动，如示威或游行。第二，军队是来“平暴”的，“暴乱”已经发生在先。他们不是镇压“戒严”的抵抗者。这里中国当局公告的因果关系非常清楚。
即便如此，军队授权执行戒严命令的过程本身缺乏合法性。中国当时没有戒严法。1996年的《戒严法》对于军队介入戒严作了两点明确的限制性规定。一是“戒严任务由人民警察、人民武装警察执行；必要时，国务院可以向中央军事委员会提出，由中央军事委员会决定派出人民解放军协助执行戒严任务”（第八条）。二是“执行戒严任务的人民解放军，在戒严指挥机构的统一部署下，由中央军事委员会指定的军事机关实施指挥”(第十条)。这就是说，戒严是国内民事行为，非军事行为。部队的介入是基于国务院的要求，戒严军队要在政府的戒严指挥机构的统一部署下。
我们虽然不能用1996年的标准衡量中国军队在1989年参与戒严的法律问题，但是，1996年的戒严法的基本原则以及军队在戒严中的作用在1989年就已经存在。否则，1996年的戒严法就是对1989年军队参加戒严并向平民开火的否定。当时国家副主席和中央军委副主席兼秘书长杨尚昆本说“戒严是为了协助首都武警、公安干警执行任务，绝对不是针对学生”。这就是承认了 96年戒严法的基本原则。
大量的证据说明，1989年中国军人来北京不是来协助戒严，而是来镇压国内政治反对派的。首先，一些军队在4月底就已经开始调往北京。第38军已经全副武装地向北京开发。这说明，军队早在戒严前就准备镇压学生运动了，他们不是来协助戒严的。第二，李鹏宣布戒严的时候，没有正式要求军队戒严，更没有提出和邀请解放军参与戒严及其阐明军队介入的必要性。他提到的几点“动乱”的状况，不足以说明现有的警察和武装警察不能维持治安，非要全副武装军队的协助。作为中央军事委员会主席的邓小平没有正式公布其命令军队戒严的合理性、必要性和法律程序。第三，1989年5月19日李鹏宣布在北京部分地区戒严的第二天，北京突然出现了一个“中国人民解放军戒严指挥部”。按理，戒严指挥部是国务院和北京市的政府人员组成，军队的戒严指挥部应当是这个政府戒严指挥部的一部分。可是当时没有政府的戒严指挥部，由军队的戒严指挥部取而代之。第四，即便当时军队介入有必要性，军队也没有必要全副武装并由坦克开道。北京当时没有任何非法武装或暴力事件。军队完全没有必要全副武装。可是他们武装到了牙齿。以上几点说明，所有军队的介入完全是邓小平为首的政治寡头们摆脱“党的领导”和“全国人大”的监督所做出的决定，目的就是镇压学生运动以及支持学生的平民。
“六·四”屠杀后，当局自己对“六·四”的总结教训本身就意味当局对军队向民众开枪的否定。江泽民接受美国广播公司访问时说：“我们应当从这件事中吸取一些教训，正如中国一句谚语所说的‘吃一堑，长一智’”。他指防暴应由警察负责，而非军队，有必要进行更好的防暴训练，并使用橡胶子弹等非致命武器。江泽民讲的“吃一堑”当然指的是军队介入和开枪就是挫折和错误。“长一智”就是当局不再敢对以后的群众运动用全副武装的军队来对付。这说明，他们不敢在一个简单的正义原则面前继续作恶。这个简单的正义原则就是：军队不能对非武装的群众开枪。他们现在不敢直接地说“六·四”是屠杀，那不过是利益所在而已。正义早已在人民心中，他们只不过是在那里躲躲闪闪。
七 戒严是非法之举
1989年5月19日中共中央、国务院召开党政干部大会，宣布对北京部分地区戒严。戒严令是以国务院的名义决定的，由总理李鹏签署发布。戒严的理由是北京发生了严重的动乱。如前所述，戒严的理由本身不足，因为北京没有发生动乱。
国务院的戒严令的决定过程也不符合当时的法律。中国宪法规定，国务院可以决定省、自治区、直辖市范围内的部分地区戒严。在这里，宪法规定的是“国务院”的职权，而不是总理的职权。国务院由总理、副总理、国务委员、各部部长、审计长和秘书长组成。虽然宪法规定国务院实行总理负责制，但是宪法同时规定总理、副总理、国务委员、秘书长组成国务院常务会议。《中华人民共和国国务院组织法》第四条规定“国务院工作中的重大问题，必须经国务院常务会议或者国务院全体会议讨论决定”。这说明中国的总理不是西方分权理论下的行政首脑只对议会负责，在行政权范围内享有排他性的独断权力。中国宪法要求中国总理实行民主集中制，对于重大问题要经过集体讨论。这点被他们自己誉为有特色的社会主义政治制度。
对中国的首都北京部分地区实行戒严无论如何都是法律规定中的“ 重大问题”，依法要经过国务院常务会议或全体会议讨论决定。但是，1989年5月当时的国务院总理李鹏在颁布在北京部分地区实行戒严的时候，没有经过国务院常务会议或全体会议讨论决定。这一点，可以通过查阅1989年5月的《国务院公报》来证实。那里没有国务院常务会议或全体会议开会的纪录。可见，李鹏的决定只是自己根据中央军委主席邓小平等几个人做出的，没有经过合法的程序。人民对于这种非法之举当然可以向全国人大常委会请愿，要求废止之。
八 北京市“游行示威十条”是对表达自由的限制
北京市人民代表大会常务委员会在1986年12月26日通过并于次日颁布了《北京市关于游行示威的若干暂行规定》。这个规定共有十条，故简称“游行示威十条”或“十条”。有人用这“十条”来谴责参与1989年游行示威的人，同时为军队镇压找借口。这是站不住脚的。
这“十条”是在1986年底北京学潮高潮期间出台的，其内容是对宪法规定的人民的表达自由的限制，超越了宪法赋予地方人大的权限。
“ 十条”中除了空头的讲“公民依法举行的游行、示威，本市各级人民政府予以保护”外，其它都是限制性的规定。其中的最大限制是无所不包的抽象条款：“违反宪法、法律规定，损害国家的、社会的、集体的利益和其他公民的合法的自由和权利”。换句话说，政府当局可以以上条款，否定任何游行的申请，而不予加以说明，也不受其他任何机关审查。它规定了申请制度，却没有规定复议制度。可见申请制度是单方面的，实际上“十条”只是授予政府有不批准的的权力，没有给游行申请者对“不准游行”决定的复议权。换句话说，政府让你游行你就游行，不让你游行，你就不能游行。人民哪还有什么游行的自由。它还规定“人民大会堂、中南海、钓鱼台国宾馆和首都机场的周围不许可游行、示威”。这是最荒唐的规定。这些地方是公共地方，就是人民实施表达自由的地方。这个限制也师出无法，没有任何法律的授权。可见，这“十条”走得多远。其他的限制不一而足。
“十条”本属越权无效。中国是单一制的国家，不是联邦制国家的分权体制。中国的立法权在全国人民代表大会和它的常务委员会。所有的法律渊源都来自全国人大。地方人大的法规只能是为执行法律而依据授权来制定的细则。国务院的法规在地方法规之上。故在中国的立法上，中央和地方只有原则和细则之分，没有立法权排他性的划分。地方人大无权直接制定出限制宪法规定的人民自由的地方性法规。中国宪法规定了人民游行示威的自由。到1989年10月为止，中国国家立法机关和国务院没有制定具体的法律和法规限制游行示威自由。所以，北京市人大常委会的“十条”规定，超越了全国人大和国务院直接限制宪法的规定，本属越权。越权无效，这是基本的法律原则。人们提出请愿取消这个规定，是中国宪法赋予的基本权利。
“六·四”屠杀后，中国当局在几个月之内（1989年10月31日）就制定了游行示威法。这说明，中国当局认识到了“十条”的越权问题，实际上否定了“十条”。这个“十条”也在新的法律出台后作废了。因此我们不能以“十条”为标准指控北京学生和市民们的游行示威为非法，更不能以此作为解放军屠杀的理由。即便按照“十条”为标准说游行示威者为非法，那也不是解放军屠杀人民的理由。这是一个基本的道义底线。人民有“和平不服从”的权利。否则人民就不能够突破社会不公和政府对人民自由的限制以及非法之法，社会正义就无法实现。我们也就无法理解过去的奴隶何以成为今天社会平等的一员。这是自然之法，正义之法。
九 20年的反思
“六·四”屠杀后，当年参与请愿的学生领袖们不停地在反思和检讨。他们在反思，也许当初不应当绝食，也许当初应当早点撤离广场，也许他们做点什么可以缓和和政府的冲突，避免屠杀……
这种反思是必要的，但是我们的反思离不开当时的历史环境。学生们不是职业政治家。他们的热情是社会生机活泼走向发展的必需。他们的怒吼实际上是那个时代的怒吼。人民在压抑之中，他们也要怒吼。“大学生万岁”和百万人自发的上街支持，是那个时代人民给与他们的肯定。今天大多数参与者和支持者并没有否定自己。屠杀和他们的错误（如果有错误的话），是不能相提并论的。当年的学生领袖王丹的如下说法是客观和准确的：
八九年那场轰轰烈烈的民主运动，绝不是几个所谓“学生领袖”可以代表的，不能因个别领导人的问题，而抹杀广大学生参与运动的正义性；更不能因为反思学生运动的得失，而掩盖政府犯下的屠杀罪行。如果学生有策略上的错误，那么政府犯下的是罪恶，两者根本不是同一层次上的问题，因而不容混淆”。
反过来看，政府有什么反思呢？
从 1895年康有为率同梁启超等数千名举人的“公车上书”事件到1989年的以学生为先导的人民请愿运动，中国人民经历近百年的外患内乱，大小学潮也以百记。可是，无论从清朝政府，袁世凯，徐世昌、段祺瑞和曹锟等北洋军阀政府，到蒋介石国民党政府，他们都知道“镇压学生，千古罪人”。所以，百年学潮中，只有1989年的学潮遭到共产党军队的屠杀。这是人民的悲哀，共产党人的耻辱。
天安门屠杀20年过去了，中国人民在自由权利方面不仅没有得到任何进步，而且其条件比1989年还要后退。中国的政治犯和思想犯在过去20年有增无减。到今天为止，他们还关押着非政府组织者胡佳和“08宪章”的推动者刘晓波。为了控制人民的思想，政府自90年代起就花大钱在网络上设立防火墙，设立网络警察，以此来蒙住人民的眼睛，塞住人民的耳朵，和堵住人们的嘴巴。在信仰自由方面，不仅西藏人民受到了控制，内地人民一样遭到了限制甚至镇压或受到虐待，其中包括法轮功修炼者自1999年7月以来所遭受到的镇压和磨难。
20年前人们提出的反官倒反腐败的请愿诉求，到今天不但没有得到解决，甚至腐败大有越演越烈的趋势。不论中国杀了多少高官，腐败在中国得不到遏制。反腐败还只是共产党的纪律部门控制的事情。
没有人民的言论自由和民主权利，政府得不到有效的监督，腐败就得不到有效的控制。所以，我们还是要回到20年前学生们提出的请愿，将反腐败和争自由联系在一起。
有人试图用这20年的中国经济发展为20年前的屠杀辩护。这种思维方式本身是错误的。就如同一个杀人犯不能以他20年后的经济上的贡献而抹煞20年前杀人的犯罪性质一样，今天中国政府的某些进步不能证明过去行为的正确性，就如同今天的共产党人不能否定其在文革十年中犯下的罪行一样。另外，今天中国的经济发展，是中国1979年开始的改革开放政策的继续，其中有在“六·四”前后被废黜的共产党总书记胡耀邦和赵紫阳不可磨灭的功劳。如果“六·四”没有屠杀，中国一样会进步。
如果说“六·四”事件对中国以后的经济发展有什么作用的话，那就是它给中国共产党政府上了一个“紧箍咒”。“六·四”屠杀后，大多数中国人民否定了共产党执政的合法性。如果说过去人们还拥护共产党，毛泽东去世的时候许多人是真心地痛哭的话，那么“六·四”屠杀后人们已经是被动地接收一个强加的统治事实。“六·四”屠杀也让共产党背负着血债，所以执政党有了强烈的执政危机。人民成了唐僧，政府当局如同孙猴子。他们干不好，人民就会念经，使得他们头痛欲裂。于是他们知道，他们做不好就要下台或者再开枪。这种执政危机一方面使当局加强镇压反对派，一方面激励他们搞好经济发展工作。
当然“六·四”后的执政危机意识也使中国的执政党变成了一个自私党，即它将自己的执政地位凌驾于人民的福祉之上。这就是共产党最大的利益。一个执政党自有了本身的利益，那么社会的经济发展和人民的福利就会受到损害。同时也不排除共产党在危机的时候再杀人的可能性。为防止再流血，我们还得解开“六·四”这个结。
十 结论：没有结束的请愿
虽然从6月3日晚解放军在北京向平民开了第一枪始，就善恶已定，我们仍然要求中国政府，如果是一个负责任的政府，对“六·四”事件进行全面和公开的调查，并公布于众，让那些死于屠杀之下的灵魂得以安息，让20年来社会和人们为此受到的创伤得以安抚。为此，我们将天安门母亲的诉求作为我们的诉求：
（一）“六四”大屠杀是一场反人类的暴行，决非政府所说的“平息反革命暴乱”。因此，当年在邓小平主持下对“六四”事件所作的定性必须彻底推翻，并给予重新评价。
（二）“天安门母亲”认为，公正、合理地解决“六四”问题，必须满足如下三项要求，即：
1，由全国人民代表大会常务委员会组成专门的“六四”事件调查委员会，对整个“六四”事件进行独立、公正、公开的调查，并向全国人民公布调查结果，包括公布此次事件中的死者名单及人数；
2，由全国人大常委会责成政府有关部门按法定程序就每一位死者对其亲属作出公开道歉；由全国人大常委会制定并通过专项的“六四事件受害者赔偿法案”，依法给予“六四”受害者及受害亲属相应的赔偿；
3，由全国人大常委会责成检察机关对“六四”惨案立案侦查，按法定程序追究责任者的法律责任。
“说出真相 拒绝遗忘 寻求正义 呼唤良知”，这是受难者家属的呼唤，也是全体有良知的中国人的呼唤。
□ 一读者推荐
相关链接：
CND８９六·四纪念馆
http://museums.cnd.org/China89/
日期 09-03-19 09:08
专题: 华夏快递
文章的URL: http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=22095
二 事件的经过
三 “六·四”运动是人民和平请愿运动
四 1989年春北京没有发生动乱
五 北京在1989年6月初没有发生“暴乱”
六“六·四”屠杀的性质不容质疑
七 戒严是非法之举
八 北京市“游行示威十条”是对表达自由的限制
九 20年的反思
十 结论：没有结束的请愿
一 引言
有五千年文明的中国让世界人民关注她的不是“四大发明”也不是她的宇航员在空中行走，而是一个年轻的中国人在1989年6月4日只身阻挡针对平民的坦克。 1989年6月3日中国当局命令全副武装的军队强行进驻北京和占领天安门广场，在行进过程中军人们向非武装的北京市民开火，导致了大量的伤亡。那一刻环绕着地球的是这样的声音：
“这里是北京国际广播电台。请记住一九八九年六月三日这一天，在中国的首都北京发生了最骇人听闻的悲剧。
成千上万的群众，其中大多是无辜的市民，被强行入城的全副武装的士兵杀害。遇害的同胞也包括我们国际广播电台的工作人员。
士兵驾驶着坦克战车，用机关枪向无数试图阻拦战车的市民和学生扫射。即使在坦克打开通路后，士兵们仍继续不分青红皂白地向街上的人群开枪射击。目击者说有些装甲车甚至辗死那些面对反抗的群众而犹豫不前的步兵。
北京国际电台英语部深深地哀悼在这次悲剧中死难的人们，并且向我们所有的听众呼吁：和我们一起来谴责这种无耻地践踏人权及最野蛮的镇压人民的行径。”
这是中国当局自己的电台播出的新闻，它是其编辑根据其在上班的路上所目睹的情况所写出的新闻稿。新闻播出后不久，即1989年6月4日的凌晨左右，中国人民解放军已经强行占领了北京天安门广场。在天安门广场上手无寸铁的学生在军人枪口押送下，撤出天安门广场。这就是让世人震惊的1989年天安门屠杀事件。
有关中国军队向平民开枪造成大量伤亡的报道，以后不断有录像、照片和当事人的回忆证实。中国官方也从未否定军队动用了武力并造成了大量的平民的伤亡。但是他们说这是“平息反革命暴乱”。多年后，中国当局一方面避讳提起“暴乱”和“平暴”而讳称说是一场“政治风波”，另一方面坚持说1989年发生了否定共产党的“政治动乱”和“反革命暴乱”，声称“平息动乱和反革命暴乱的胜利，巩固了我国的社会主义阵地和十年改革开放的成果，也给党和人民提供了有益的经验教训 ”。
历史事件的性质是以人类所建立的正义和价值观来确定的，不能因为事件多年后的某些社会经济和文化的发展而改变。二十年来，中国当局对国内封锁对“六·四”天安门屠杀的报道和讨论，对外却以改革开放的进步来掩盖其军事镇压平民的反人类性。今天，我们必须要拨乱反正，让中国人知道历史真相，看清历史事件的性质，以避免这种反人性的屠杀事件发生。
二 事件的经过
1989年4月15日，原中国共产党中央委员会总书记胡耀邦去世。在他去世后的几个小时之内，北京大学和其他的大学的学生们通过大小文字报表达了对胡耀邦的悼念，也表达了对中国政治的不满和对中国领导人的批评。学生们的不满来自于中共中央在1987年初因为胡耀邦政治上反对“资产阶级自由化”不力而遭罢黜。4月17日夜北京大学和其他几所大学拥着“ 中国魂”的特大横幅走向北京天安门广场。4月18日他们向全国人民代表大会常务委员会提出了“七条”请愿书，内容如下：
1． 公正评价胡耀邦的政绩，肯定民主自由的宽松的政治环境；
2. 彻底否定“清除精神污染”与“反自由化”运动，并为这次运动中蒙受不白之冤的人平反；
3. 要求党和国家领导人及其子女向全国人民公布其财产状况；
4. 允许民办报纸，开放报禁，制定新闻法；
5. 增加教育经费，提高知识分子的待遇；
6. 取消北京人大常委会违反宪法而制定的限制游行的“十条”；
7. 此次活动作出公开的报道，见诸党政机关报。
以上七条基本上是1989年民主运动的基本政治主张，归纳起来为两个请愿诉求：
一是要求自由和宽松的政治环境；二是反对腐败，即当时最响亮的口号“反官倒”。其中没有提出任何选举在内的民主要求，没有要求改换政府，更谈不上推翻一个政府。当日学生们经过十多个小时的静坐后，作为全国人民代表的体育转播播音员宋世雄，全国青联主席刘延东和北京市教育局局长曹西平出来接受了“七条”。
当晚约8时左右，静坐的学生解散，但是静坐外围的学生拉着“中国魂”的横幅到了中国中央政府所在的“新华门”前示威。这就发生了“4.19”和 “4.20”“冲击新华门”事件。在这个事件当中，中央的有关报道强调“有人喊‘打倒共产党’的口号”。这种报道激化了学生的情绪，因为大多数学生当时没有这种政治诉求。
4月20日后，北京的几所主要大学开始组织学生自治会。中共中央决定在4月22日在人民大会堂举行“胡耀邦追悼大会”。当得知北京当局将封闭天安门广场不让学生到天安门参加追悼大会后，北京主要大学的自治组织决定进驻天安门集体参加“胡耀邦的追悼大会”。当晚，各大学的学生突破封锁，凯旋般的进驻了天安门。中共中央在学生们已经进驻天安门广场的情况下决定允许同学们在广场聆听追悼大会。大会结束后，几位学生代表在人民大会堂台阶上“跪递”他们的请愿书，结果中国当局不予理睬。这件事情后，学生开始了罢课。
4月25日中共中央在北京主要学校和有关部门口头传达了邓小平的讲话，指出中国发生了政治动乱，要加强“人民民主专政”。4月26日人民日报根据邓小平的讲话，发表了《旗帜鲜明地反对动乱》的社论。社论指出极少数人“打着民主的旗号破坏民主法制，其目的是要搞散人心，捣乱全国，破坏安定团结的政治局面。这是一场有计划的阴谋，是一次动乱”。
这个社论是1989年运动的转折点。尽管社论说是“极少数人”，但是学生们认为那只是文字游戏，他们认为社论就是否定学生们的政治诉求，矛头就是指向学生。他们认为“我们没有搞动乱”。于是他们再次走上街头。4月27日发生了第一次最大规模的游行。游行得到了北京市市民的热烈支持。他们高喊“大学生万岁”并且送来了面包和水。有的学生的母亲也到游行队伍，母女拥抱着，享受着那自由的一刻。事前布置的军警在北京市民和学生面前，显得苍白无力。
“4.27”大游行后，政府有关当局开始和学生对话。对话断断续续持续了几个星期，没有任何结果。5月4日赵紫阳在亚行的讲话要求在“冷静、理智、克制、秩序，和在民主和法制的轨道上解决问题”。赵讲话后，学生们宣布复课。
因为政府和学生的对话没有取得实质性进展，中央没有改变“动乱”的定性，政府对学生们的政治诉求也没有诚意予以接受，5月13日，在前苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫来访前一天，以北京大学为首的学生开始了在天安门广场绝食。他们提出了绝食宣言，其诉求也很简单：
（1）要求政府迅速与学生举行实质性真诚对话，
（2）要求政府承认他们没有搞动乱而是在进行一场爱国的民主运动。
北京市民包括警察和军事院校的学生都走上街头，支持学生的政治诉求。人民日报和中央电视台曾报道有上百万人走上街头。北京的工人们也组织起来，成立了中国历史上第一个工人自治会。此时，声援北京学生运动已经波及到全国。许多大城市的学生和市民都走上了街头。外地的学生也赶到北京参加绝食和声援绝食。
5月16日，赵紫阳在同戈尔巴乔夫的谈话中明确世界，中共中央在1978就决定邓小平是中国的掌舵人。
5月19日，中国当局决定在5月20日对北京部分地区实行戒严。戒严令由国务院的名义发布，并成立了“解放军戒严指挥部”。当时的中共中央总书记赵紫阳因为反对戒严出席“戒严”大会，他在5月19日凌晨看望了学生后就被软禁，直到他在2005年1月去世。
5 月20日后，北京的学生和市民们开始了一场反对戒严的活动。长期作为首都的北京，100年来他们经历了无数次的反抗政府的活动，见证了几个政府的更迭，但是没有一个政府命令军队进城来镇压学生运动。北京市的妇女，老人来了，工人们来了，政府的官员也来了，甚至有些警察也来了，他们来到戒严的军车面前，劝说着满脸稚气的解放军“娃娃”，让他们撤军。军人们犹豫了。有些将军们也开始反对戒严。
同时，人们要求全国人民代表大会常务委员会讨论决定戒严的合法性和合理性。全国人大常委会下次开会的时间是6月20日。包括有57名（后有4名代表撤出）人大常委会委员签名的公开信要求召开全国人大常委会特别会议。人们开始要求国家的最高权力机关讨论“罢免李鹏总理”和“取消戒严”的议题，要求当权者按照宪法的规定和法律的程序来解决政治问题。
军队在各种反对的声音下，在北京郊区停滞不前。本来，这是个最好的机会让中共党内来解决国内的政治纷争。可是，面对人民改革的呼声，特别是面对人民要求通过 “全国人民代表大会”来解决政治纷争，邓小平和其他中共中央的当权者没有耐心和信心，于是决定军队在6月3日不惜一切代价强行进军北京市区，占领广场，驱赶学生，用军事行动来解决非武装的和平集会和示威。这就发生了天安门“六·四”屠杀。
从镇压以后的政府官方文件和对“暴乱者”的审判中，所有的“暴乱”行为都是发生在军队前行进驻北京天安门广场的过程中。伤亡也发生在6月3日夜和4日的凌晨。以下是网上的一个较为中立和严肃的“百科全书”的报道：
6 月3日，中共中央决定清场。当天下午4时，杨尚昆、李鹏、乔石和姚依林等召开军政会议，指令翌日6时前要完成任务，并宣布“如遇阻拦，戒严部队可以采取各种自卫措施和一切手段予以排除”。当晚7时，中央电视台新闻联播播放戒严部队紧急通告，宣布“戒严部队、公安干警和武警部队有权采取一切手段强行处置，一切后果由组织者肇事者负责。”
晚上10时后，天安门与长安街的形势急转直下。军队入城后遭到市民阻挠，军队开枪，其中木樨地是死伤最多的焦点。该处聚集数千人，部分人用碎砖头砸打解队，军队立即一排排冲上大桥，边喊着“人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人”的口号，边向投石头的市民开枪。
从这时起，军队时而向天开枪，时而对着人群扫射，有人中弹倒下。民众不断向后退，高喊：“法西斯！流氓政府！杀人犯！”军队用冲锋枪向骂声扫射，约百名学生和市民倒在血泊中，大部分立刻被送往旁边的复兴医院。复兴门外大街两旁的市民从自家窗户上探出头来痛骂，也有人从窗口上往马路上投东西，军队开枪还击，从木墀地到全国总工会约五百米左右的路段，两旁建筑物都被打得火星四溅，其中22号楼、24号楼两幢部长楼有3人在楼上被子弹打死，当中据报包括人大法律委员会副主任委员宋汝尊的女婿。
根据BBC现场报道，解放军从卡车上不分目标的向人群射击；在天安门广场的一次扫射中，她自己被尸体绊倒，几码之外被当场射杀的还有两人，重伤倒地不起的两人；之前北京某儿童医院20分钟内送来40多名遭枪击的重伤者，其中包括妇女和老人，不少人是在自己家中中弹，其中有两人已死亡。有说一些死者遗体被戒严部队埋在各处，但说法并未得到证实，但一些有录像却显示解放军直接在长安大街向市民开枪。
广场上的学生虽然知道镇压开始，但以为军人只用橡胶子弹和催泪弹，最多是被军人押走。此时不断有人跑入广场紧急报信，说明军队荷枪实弹扫射示威者，广场陷入惊恐。
零晨1时，天安门以西约四公里的复兴门传出枪声，军队向堵塞他们的群众开枪，最少逾30人死亡，200多人受伤，复兴门外医院接收大量死伤者。1时30分，北京市政府和戒严部队发出《紧急通告》，内容说：
“ 首都今晚发生了严重的反革命暴乱。暴徒们猖狂袭击解放军指战员，抢军火，烧军车，设路障，绑架解放军官兵，妄图颠覆中华人民共和国，推翻社会主义制度。人民解放军多日来保持了高度克制，现在必须坚决反击反革命暴乱。首都公民要遵守戒严令规定，并同解放军密切配合，坚决捍卫宪法，保卫伟大的社会主义祖国和首都的安全。凡在天安门广场的公民和学生，应立即离开，以保证戒严部队执行任务。凡不听劝告的，将无法保证其安全，一切后果完全由自己负责”。
中国官方资料称，《通告》内容广播后，至零晨2时，几十万人的广场只剩下数千名学生和市民。零晨2时20分，军队开进广场，施放催泪弹，部队从广场南面的前门向中央推进，沿途向高空发射照明弹，群众向天安门广场北面后退。据报中枪者包括徒手阻拦军队的平民以及旁观的民众，也包括现场抢救的医务人员，另外有一队学生（包括北京体育学院学生方政）被军队坦克辗压，至少五人被压死，九人被压伤。
根据陈希同1989年6月30日的报告，“暴乱中有 3000多名非军人受伤，200余人死亡，包括36名大学生。这当中，有罪有应得的暴徒，有被误伤的群众，还有正在现场执行任务的医护人员、联防人员和维护秩序工作队员等。对于被误伤的群众和执行任务中受伤害的人员，政府要认真地做好善后工作”。
根据综合报道，死亡的人数远远高于陈希同的数字。仅就北京13家医院的统计，死亡人数在三日晚就达479人。但是20年过去了，中国官方没有进一步的调查“六·四”事件，死亡人数也没有进一步的核对。即便按照中国政府的定性，政府也应当甄别哪些人是“暴徒”，哪些是误伤的市民并加以和善后补偿。然而，这件事情没有做。人民大学教授丁子霖19岁的儿子在“平息反革命暴乱”中被枪杀致死，至今政府对于她儿子的死没有一个正式的定性和赔偿。以丁子霖为领导的一些受难者妈妈组成了“天安门母亲”，要求中国政府调查“六·四”事件，要求政府让她们公开和不受干扰地悼唁他们他们死去的亲人。这样一个简单的要求，也没有得到政府的答复，并且她们一直受到当局的骚扰。
三 “六·四”运动是人民和平请愿运动
从1989年4月15日到6月4日止，中国发生了以北京天安门广场为中心、以学生为主导并得到全国各界人士支持的和平请愿运动。请愿就是公民对向政府机关提出各种诉求的活动。请愿往往通过言论自由或游行示威集会等自由权利来表达。在多数情况下，请愿活动是要求政府当局在现有的宪法和法律内进行。
“六·四”请愿的主要诉求是4月17日学生们在天安门人民英雄纪念碑前提出的“七条”。如前所述，这“七条”归纳起来就是包括新闻自由在内的言论表达自由的要求和包括制定“阳光法”在内的“反官倒”即反腐败的要求。在以邓小平为首的中国当局在4月25日认定学生的请愿活动是“动乱”后，学生们加上了“摘掉动乱帽子”的请愿。在当局决定在北京市区实行戒严后，请愿者提出了全国人民代表大会“罢免李鹏”和“取消戒严”的诉求。
以上所有的请愿要求都在中国宪法和法律允许的范围之内。宪法第三十五条规定“中华人民共和国公民有言论、出版、集会、结社、游行、示威的自由”。所以学生正式要求当局保证和落实这些自由。宪法第四十一条规定“中华人民共和国公民对于任何国家机关和国家工作人员，有提出批评和建议的权利；对于任何国家机关和国家工作人员的违法失职行为，有向有关国家机关提出申诉、控告或者检举的权利”。宪法第二十七条规定“一切国家机关和国家工作人员必须依靠人民的支持，经常保持同人民的密切联系，倾听人民的意见和建议，接受人民的监督，努力为人民服务”。这就是人民的请愿权利。
宪法第二条规定“中华人民共和国的一切权力属于人民。人民行使国家权力的机关是全国人民代表大会和地方各级人民代表大会”。宪法第六十二条和第六十三条规定全国人民代表大会监督宪法的实施，选举产生国务院总理并可以罢免之。宪法第六十七条规定，全国人民大会常务委员会监督国务院的工作，有权撤销国务院制定的与同宪法、法律相抵触的行政法规、决定和命令。所以要求通过全国人大及其常委会来罢免总理李鹏和取消戒严是宪法赋予人民的权利。当时请愿者要求邓小平下台，也是要求中国革除军事寡头政治的合理要求。因为邓小平只是一个中央军事委员会主席，但是却实际操纵中国的政治。
综上所述，“六·四”请愿活动没有提出颠覆宪法或在宪法之外重新建立一个政治制度的诉求。他们甚至没有将“选举”和“修宪”等民主改革作为主要诉求。在绝食最紧张的时候，请愿者提出的是“维护宪法”，在天安门广场成立的是“首都各界爱国维宪联席会”。在“4.27”大游行的时候，学生们打出了“拥护中国共产党”的口号。这些都说明，请愿活动没有意图“否定中国共产党”搞动乱。请愿者至多是要求共产党作进一步的政治改革，进一步保证人民的自由权利。
“ 六·四”请愿活动都是通过和平的方式进行的。这些活动包括游行、集会和结社、对话、静坐和绝食。绝食虽然将请愿活动带到一个激烈的高度，但那是以请愿绝食者自己的生命来换取人民的自由，这和当局用军队自动枪和坦克来剥夺请愿者的生命是不可同日而语的。在请愿期间，请愿者和全国的声援的人民没有通过暴力、暗杀、搞武装、政变或其他非和平的手段来达到目的。“六·四”请愿运动坚持了和平原则。
四 1989年春北京没有发生动乱
中国当局早在4月25日就将学生运动定为动乱。这个“动乱”的定性激化了政府和学生之间的矛盾。学生们最后以“绝食”来要求摘掉“动乱”的帽子。中国当局不妥协，坚持认定学潮是动乱并认为“动乱”发展成了所谓的“暴乱”。今天，这个“动乱”的帽子该去掉了。
在传统的汉语词汇里没有“动乱”一词。“动乱”或“社会动乱”是现代的用法，1966年到1976的文化革命被称为“十年动乱”，成为人民对“动乱”理解的主要事例。在那十年里，中国发生了各派别之间的武斗，抢夺武器仓库，“地富反坏右”和走资派等被殴打、游街，国家法律全部无效，中国国家主席也被非法关押致死。1989年没有发生这些事情，甚至连点迹象都没有。
按照传统词典对“乱”的解释，“乱”是无秩序，那么，“动乱”应当是非常严重或极度的社会失序。1989年4月北京没有发生非常严重或极度社会失序的情况。中国当局是在“4.26社论”里将学潮定为动乱的。这个社论在1989年4月 25日晚间播出。所以，我们要依据史料来判定中国的北京在1989年4月25日之前的社会基本秩序是否遭到严重破坏。
从1989年4月 15日到25 日，这10天里，发生了一些游行示威活动。这些活动主要有：“4.17”的学生游行和“4.18”在人民大会堂的静坐。这个静坐已经在全国人民代表大会的代表接受了“七条”后和平解散；“4.19”和“4.20”学生们在新华门前示威；“4.22”学生集体到天安门广场参加旁听胡耀邦追悼大会；以及学生们 “跪拜请愿”被拒绝后开始罢课。可是在这些活动中没有发生任何“暴力”或其他危害人民生命和财产的行为；北京市的治安没有因为这些示威活动而变恶化；北京市的各国家机关，工厂和事业单位的工作秩序没有受到实质性影响；北京市市民生活正常而有序地进行。如此而言，“动乱”何在？
中国当局讲的 “动乱”是以其游行示威的政治诉求来决定的。邓小平最先将学潮定为“政治动乱”：“这不是一般的学潮，而是一场否定共产党的领导、否定社会主义制度的政治动乱”。人民日报“4.26”社论为了在文字上不打击一大片，没有说是“政治动乱”而只说是“动乱”，但是明确指出动乱的实质是“要从根本上否定中国共产党的领导，否定社会主义制度”。事情很清楚，当局是以其“乱”背后的动机和思想倾向也可以说是以其乱的性质来决定“乱”的程度，而不是以“乱”的程度来决定其法律性质和采取法律措施。
一个社会是否发生了动乱，不能依据行为者主观上的政治诉求来决定。首先，中国承认的联合国《世界人权宣言》和中国的宪法都确定了人民的表达自由。如果将和平的政治诉求作为确定动乱的标准，那就是否定人民言论和其他表达自由。其次，如果以其行为的性质或者以行为背后的动机和思想原则决定的是否发生了动乱，那么等于“治乱”的法律措施目标是人们的思想。法律不能以人的思想来惩罚人，这是当代世界各国包括中国都确认的基本法律原则。中国领导人一边不得不承认这个原则，一边却违反这个规则，无时无刻控制人民的思想和惩罚他们不喜欢的有思想的人。这是中国1989年“动乱”的渊源。
有人会说，非法游行示威本身就是动乱。游行示威无论合法与否都是一种表达的行为。如果说乱是无秩序， 动乱是非常严重或极度的社会失序，那么非法的行为不一定造成社会极度失序。北京学生们在1989年4月的游行无论是否非法都是有组织有秩序的。
有人会说非法占领天安门广场是动乱。天安门广场就是人民政治表达的一个公共地方。“非法占领”广场至多只是乱或违法，而非“动乱”。这是因为这个“乱”不影响当地人民群众正常的生活秩序。5月13日开始的天安门广场绝食，是在宣布“动乱”之后，其本身是要求摘掉“动乱帽子”的行为。即便在天安门广场绝食是“ 动乱”，它也没有实质性地或严重地影响人民的生活秩序和国家的正常政治活动。绝食虽然使欢迎苏联前总统戈尔巴乔夫的仪式没有能在天安门广场举行，但是，其国家欢迎仪式还是在别的地方隆重举行。国家的政治活动还是在正常的进行。
戒严后，北京的学生并没有撤离广场。可以说戒严并没有终止所谓的“动乱”。但是，这个“乱”没有影响北京人民的正常生活。北京市的社会治安和生活秩序在北京学生占领广场下，不但没有受到影响，甚至变好了。戒严后的第二天5月21日中央电视台晚间新闻报道了如下采访：
街头一位推自行者的妇女对记者说，作为首都公民，我们能够自己管理自己，自己完全能够维持秩序。
一位男子说，过去街上车碰着车就要吵架，现在都互相理解，招招手就走了。
一位五十来岁的男子说，我是外地出差来京的，从打戒严令发布之前，据我观察，街头交通秩序是好的，虽然人多，走车也多，但秩序非常好，因为有学生在帮助警察维持秩序。
记者问一位售货员：“现在副食品供应还畅通吧？”售货员：”对，挺畅通的，而且也没有什么抢购”。
人民的请愿活动就是人民最大的节日。当局为什么要将人民和平且有秩序的请愿示威活动看作动乱？目的就是为镇压“反对派”和扼杀人民政治上改革开放的要求找借口。实际上，这是将人民推向对立面的顽固政治手段，只会带来社会更大的动乱和人民的生命财产的损失。如果当时的掌权者的邓小平不将学生的请愿活动定为动乱，那么学生的要求就有可能在“冷静、理智、克制、秩序和在民主和法制的轨道上解决问题”。那样的话，后面的屠杀就有可能避免。
五 北京在1989年6月初没有发生“暴乱”
中国当局派军队血腥镇压1989年的人民请愿运动的理由是“北京发生了反革命暴乱”。在政治运动中发生的非法行为在很多民主国家或非民主国家发生过。中国现代史上也发生过。1976年的天安门事件在行为的方式上一样有违法或动乱的表现。但是，无论在世界近代史上或中国近现代史上，用军队来镇压一个大规模的非武装的群众运动是非常少见的。中国当时是否发生了不得不靠军事镇压的“暴乱”不仅是一个事实的判定工作，也是中国当局重新评价“六·四”事件的一个最基本出发点。
赵紫阳在1997年9月12日给中共中央的信中对此讲道:
“那次学潮不管存在什么偏激、错误和可指责之处，把它定性为‘反革命暴乱’是没有根据的。既然不是反革命暴乱，就不应该采用武装镇压的手段去解决”。作为当时中共中央第一把手的赵紫阳的这个判断，可以说是分析军事镇压合法性和合理性的核心问题。
为了分析的方便，我们必须对“暴乱”有一个基本定性。暴乱不是一个确定的法律词汇。中国法律对在什么情况下可以采取军事镇压没有作出明确规定。参考中国 1996年的戒严法关于导致戒严的动乱、暴乱或骚乱的“严重性”、“紧急性”和戒严的“必要性”的有关规定，导致直接军事镇压的暴乱一定有大规模的“暴力 ”或“武力”行为或事件发生，这种暴力已经导致了相当规模的人民生命的丧失并且威胁着人民的生命安全；这种“暴力”行为必须是达到了一般的警力不能控制的程度以至于不得不用有组织的大规模军事镇压。所以，“暴乱”不能包括一般的违法行为或小范围内和短时间的团伙性行为。暴乱不能包括“非武装”的群众性集会或游行。
同时，在因果关系上，大规模的暴力行为是因，发生在前，军事镇压是果。
通过以下几个方面的分析，我们认为中国当时没有发生暴乱。
第一，中国当局自己所指控的“暴乱”行为没有证据
关于在“六·四”前发生了反革命暴乱的情况，官方唯一报道来自于陈希同1989年6月30日在第七届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第八次会议上的报告。
在报告的第六节，陈希同指控动乱的组织者和策划者占领广场，“每日耗资10万余元，而且开始非法采购武器”。关于这一指控，除了陈希同的这个报告外，当局在镇压后没有提供任何进一步的证明，也没有一个所谓的动乱策划者被指控“非法采购武器”。
该报告的第七节，对“暴乱”作了专门报道，其标题就是“极少数人是怎样挑起反革命暴乱的”。陈希同说正是在下面描述的万分紧急的关头，“中共中央、国务院、中央军委不得不下定决心，命令驻守在首都周围的戒严部队，强行开进，平息反革命暴乱”。按照他的说法，北京已经发生了“反革命暴乱”。
首先，他指控，引发暴乱的一个事件是六月一日发生的一辆武警的吉普车因车祸轧死了一个人。他说，极少数人却有意把车祸同戒严部队按计划进城的行动联系起来，“大造谣言，说是戒严部队的开道车故意轧死学生，鼓动不明真相的人，要抢夺尸体，举行抬棺大游行。一时间，人心浮动，气氛紧张。经过这样的煽动和鼓噪，暴乱的火就被他们点了起来”。实际上，在人民日报第二天报导了车祸后，这个事件没有对参与学潮的学生和领导产生实际上的影响。至今为止，我们没有看到北京市民或学生因煽动车祸而被起诉。
按照陈希同的说法，暴乱开始于6月3日凌晨，“当部分戒严部队按计划进入警戒目标的过程中，就有人有组织地煽动一些人在建国门、南河沿、西单、木樨地等路口阻拦大小车辆，设置路障，拦截军车、殴打战士，抢夺军用物资。曹各庄附近12辆军车被拦。从燕京饭店门前经过的战士被强行搜身。电报大楼前的军车轮胎被扎穿，并被隔离墩围住”。
这个报告中关于“殴打战士，抢夺军用物资”的报导，没有得到其他任何独立的资料印证。实际上当时的报道是，北京市民给军人送吃的，送喝的，以“人民子弟兵爱人民”的口号，劝说军人撤退。资料表明，北京市民没有武装拦截军车。和平的拦截军车根本谈不上为暴乱。即便有军车轮胎被扎，此种行为远远不能当作暴乱。
陈希同的“暴乱”说的另外一个指控是“在拦截、砸抢军车的同时，一伙暴徒围堵和冲击国家机关和重要部门。他们冲人民大会堂、冲中宣部、冲广播电视部，冲中南海的西门和南门。保卫这些机关的武警战士和公安干警数十人负伤”。陈希同没有说明这种冲击的方式，严重性，公安干警负伤的严重程度。
实际上，从五月以来就有些人在这些机构门前或附近进行和平抗议。他们没有武装，没有使用其他武器，那里也没有发生什么伤亡。
陈希同对北京发生的“暴乱”比较具有煽动性说法是，关于高自联和工自联的头头们分发武器。他说：
“[6 月3日]下午5时许，非法组织“高自联”和“工自联”的头头，在天安门广场分发了菜刀、匕首、铁棍、铁链子和带尖的竹竿，声言“抓住军警就要往死里打”。 “工自联”大广播中大肆叫嚣，要“拿起武器推翻政府”。还有一伙暴徒纠集了上千人，推倒西单附近一个建筑工地的围墙，抢走大批施工工具和钢筋、砖块等，准备打巷战。他们的广播站不断播放如何制造和使用燃烧瓶、如何堵烧军车之类的“知识”，进行教唆和挑动。他们策划利用第二天是星期天的时机，煽动更多的人上街，发动更大规模的打、砸、抢、烧，造成一个群众暴动的态势，一举推翻政府，夺取政权”。
关于高自联和工自联的头头分发菜刀匕首等武器之说，陈希同是当着全世界人民面前造谣撒谎。中国当局镇压后没有关于21个通缉的学生运动领袖、黑手王军涛和陈子民等，以及工自联的“头头”韩东方、李进进等这些人发放武器的镜头，照片，或任何文字的具体报道。更奇怪的是，镇压后被逮捕的高自联和工自联的头头没有一个因为“发放武器”而被起诉。当局也没有提供关于那些“头头”之外的其他动乱者发放武器的具体的证据。在6月4日凌晨军队在天安门血腥清场后没有任何报道说军队收缴了任何武器。实际上，那些学生们清场的时候“依然是赤手空拳，手无寸铁”。
自5月20日宣布戒严后，就有些人在广场教导学生如何防止有可能发射的烟雾弹对人体的伤害。他们是在做些保护自己的事情。如果有市民或学生宣传如何抵制军车，那么这本身不是暴乱，而是宣传抵制军队镇压学生。逻辑上，只有军队强行进驻北京，才会遇到抵抗。这说明，军队镇压的是抵抗者，而不是镇压已经施行暴力的暴乱者。
第二， 中国在“平暴”后的审判中没有判决一个“在军队开枪前”的“暴乱分子”，所有被关押和审判的“暴徒”都是对军队镇压的抵抗
从1989年镇压后所揭示的资料表示，中国当时的决策者已经下定决心，命令驻守在首都周围的戒严部队，强行开进，占领天安门广场，用暴力解决国内的政治纷争。英勇的北京市民对当局用军队来解决非武装的和平政治抗议进行了抵抗。所谓的平息反革命暴乱，只是一个借口。
镇压后，被审判的动乱的组织者和策划者，没有一个被指控组织暴乱。被陈希同指控的工自联的主要头头，没有一个判刑。有些工人纠察队的领导人被判刑，但那是因为他们参与了抵抗军队开枪。同时，镇压后所报道的“暴徒”都是在军队强行占领天安门的过程中产生的。在此之前，他们是良民。所以，军队来平息暴乱是本末倒置。
第三，北京市戒严期间其治安状况良好，骚乱来自戒严后，来自北京市民对“戒严”的抵抗。以下是人民日报所报道的戒严第二天和第6天的报道：
《北京戒严第二天》：本报北京5月22日凌晨4时50分讯：国务院在北京部分地区实行戒严的命令生效业已40多小时。在政府划定的戒严区域内，仍未见到异于往日的发展情况。
21日星期日，天安门广场上，和平请愿的首都的和从外地来的大批大学生比肩静坐。东西长安街上，人流夜以继日；数架军用直升机在低空往复掠过，撒下用大字号写的李鹏总理讲话传单，引起阵阵骚动。
戒严令发出以后，广大市民担心执行戒严的解放军进城后发生流血事件，夜间在通向郊区的一些主要交通路口设置道路障碍。城市公共汽车、电车已中断两天。地铁停运。东西长安街等主要街道，群众自动维护交通秩序，指挥过往的各种车辆和行人。一些居民给本报打电话，抱怨看不到报纸，拿不到牛奶。入夜，在用各种大型车辆及其其他什物设起路障的许多交通路口，又聚集起黑压压的人群。
这篇报道指出，北京市民只是抱怨拿不到报纸和牛奶。这说明戒严导致了北京市的治安情况的恶化。但是情况仍然不是那么严重，北京市民的正常生活没有受到影响，工人照常上班，中小学生照常上课，书声朗朗。以下是关于戒严第六天的报道：
本报北京26日凌晨讯，昨天，北京烈日当空。下午起，东西长安街和广场周围的游行队伍一时不见头尾。从横幅来看，有来自科研、教育、卫生、新闻等单位和部分工厂的。也有不少是外地学生。长安街交通一度中断。
北京各大小副食店和农贸市场，蔬菜肉蛋等生活必需品充足，货架摊位琳琅满目。据北京人民广播电台报道，全市工业系统的职工出勤率一直在80%左右，大多数企业事业单位的工作秩序基本稳定，中小学校书声朗朗。
以上就是“暴乱”前几天的情况。如此良好的社会秩序，怎么会突然爆发了“暴乱”？唯一的解释是，军队要强行进入北京。而军队的对手则是非武装的学生和市民。
第四，中共自己当时最高领导人也认为将学潮“定性为‘反革命暴乱’是没有根据的”。赵紫阳的话对于分析当时的政治形势是非常重要的。首先，他是中共最高领导人。他掌握有大量的信息和内部通报。同时，客观的材料也支持赵紫阳的判断。要驳倒赵紫阳的判断，必须要用充分的史料。到目前为止，我们还没有看到可以驳倒他的判断的史料。
六 “六·四”屠杀的性质不容质疑
军队向非武装的群众开枪就是屠杀。中国军人在1989年6月4日前夜和当天对非武装的北京市民开枪并用坦克车碾平民而造成上千人的伤亡后，全世界的主要媒体，包括香港、台湾和其他海外华人都认为中国人民解放军所谓的“平息反革命暴乱”是对人民的屠杀。当时有人称军人屠杀了上万人。仅从死亡的人数来看，这个说法是夸大的。但是，历史不会因为实际死亡人数比最初发生屠杀时人们在愤怒之下报称的死亡人数少而改变其屠杀的性质。
中国共产党政府纪念的“五一”国际劳动节，就是纪念芝加哥警察镇压几十万请愿的工人，当时工人们首先扔了炸弹，所以“暴乱”发生在先。但是当时没有军人介入。警察开枪了，只是导致了4名工人的死亡。这个事件称之为“干草市场屠杀”事件。按照中国政府给出的死亡人数，中国的军人“六·四”枪杀了近三百平民，还不算是屠杀？
我们认为解放军的“平暴”是“屠杀”不仅仅基于军人造成的伤亡的数字，而且还基于镇压的性质和镇压的对象等情况。历史资料表明，北京没有发生暴乱。那里发生的是得到多数中国共产党党员和普通中国公民支持的人民请愿运动。人民日报和中央电视台报道了北京百万人上街游行支持学生，要求中国当局与学生对话。
《北京青年报》1989年5月19日第 1296期发表的调卷表示，90%的答卷者认为学生的运动是爱国民主运动并且参加或支持了运动。《中国妇女报》1989年5月19日第462号报道了两个妇女党员的心声。她们说：“北京大学生绝食请愿, 实在是万不得已。这恐怕是有史以来最伟大的爱国主义运动。但目前绝食已有六天 , 声援活动波及全国。这说明追求政治民主是民心所向,党心所向”。他们希望中共总书记和国务院总理“去进行真诚的对话”。
中国共产党的最高领导人赵紫阳也要求通过对话协商来解决政治纠纷。人民的请愿是中国人民在解放思想改革开放的进程中和平的改革进程的一部分，本可以通过协商对话和全国人民代表大会制度的立法和监督程序予以解决。可是以邓小平为首的军事政治寡头于人民的呼声不顾，动用军队来阻断了这个和平和民主的进程。军队不合适地被拖入到国内和平的政治斗争中里，成为政治寡头镇压对立派的工具，1989年的中国军人扮演了政治斗争工具的不光彩的角色。让历史记住这个耻辱。
军队参加戒严并向平民开火违背了军队的基本职责。中华人民共和国宪法第二十九条明文规定：“中华人民共和国的武装力量属于人民。它的任务是巩固国防，抵抗侵略，保卫祖国，保卫人民的和平劳动，参加国家建设事业，努力为人民服务。”宪法已经明确规定军队属于人民，主要职责是抵抗侵略。宪法在这里没有赋予军队参与党内政治斗争解决人民政治请愿的职责，甚至都没有提到“维护社会秩序”或“制止动乱”的职责。
1989年的中国军人违背了军队的政治领导的基本原则。军队本身没有也不能有其政治决策功能。它是一部机器，由国家的政治机关决定。中国的中央军事委员会主席只是国家军事机器的一个指挥者或操纵者，他受制于中共中央，也就是说“党指挥枪”，也受制于“全国人民代表大会”，即军队属于人民。宪法规定“中央军事委员会主席对全国人民代表大会和全国人民代表大会常务委员会负责”（宪法第94条）。可是，中共中央总书记赵紫阳因为反对戒严从5月19日后就被软禁。全国人民代表大会常务委员会委员长万里却“因病”被滞留在上海，目的是不让全国人民代表大会常务委员会开会来决定人民的请愿。当时有57名全国人大常委会委员签名的一份公开信呼吁立即召开全国人大常委紧急会议。人们还呼吁“每一位全国人大常委会委员，每一位全国人大代表，投下神圣的一票，废除戒严令，罢免李鹏总理职务”。尽管全国人大紧急会议可能不会召开，人民仍然期待预定的6月20日的全国人大常委会会议来讨论“罢免李鹏”和“取消戒严”的议案。
国家军事委员会主席邓小平害怕用这个合法程序来解决政治问题。于是，他要先用武力将请愿运动镇压下去，在没有反对声音的情况下召开全国人大常委会议。人民的代议机关在这里只是个列宁所批判的“橡皮图章”和投票机器。人民的合法和和平政治诉求的进程在军队的枪声下停止了。国家军事委员会主席凌驾于中共中央和全国人民代表大会之上。这是违背宪法，违背人民意志的暴政。人民对这种暴政的反抗是正义之举，符合联合国的宪章和中国承认的《世界人权宣言》，也符合中国的宪法。对这种正义和合法行为的镇压就是“屠杀”。
有人会说，中国军人在1989年6月4日是向戒严的抵抗者开枪，他们是为了协助戒严以恢复北京的正常秩序。首先这是假定，因为中国当局当时明确宣布军队强行进驻北京是因为北京市从6月3日凌晨起发生了“反革命暴乱”。这就是说，第一，这个公告排除了6月3日之前所谓的违法“动乱”活动是暴力活动，如示威或游行。第二，军队是来“平暴”的，“暴乱”已经发生在先。他们不是镇压“戒严”的抵抗者。这里中国当局公告的因果关系非常清楚。
即便如此，军队授权执行戒严命令的过程本身缺乏合法性。中国当时没有戒严法。1996年的《戒严法》对于军队介入戒严作了两点明确的限制性规定。一是“戒严任务由人民警察、人民武装警察执行；必要时，国务院可以向中央军事委员会提出，由中央军事委员会决定派出人民解放军协助执行戒严任务”（第八条）。二是“执行戒严任务的人民解放军，在戒严指挥机构的统一部署下，由中央军事委员会指定的军事机关实施指挥”(第十条)。这就是说，戒严是国内民事行为，非军事行为。部队的介入是基于国务院的要求，戒严军队要在政府的戒严指挥机构的统一部署下。
我们虽然不能用1996年的标准衡量中国军队在1989年参与戒严的法律问题，但是，1996年的戒严法的基本原则以及军队在戒严中的作用在1989年就已经存在。否则，1996年的戒严法就是对1989年军队参加戒严并向平民开火的否定。当时国家副主席和中央军委副主席兼秘书长杨尚昆本说“戒严是为了协助首都武警、公安干警执行任务，绝对不是针对学生”。这就是承认了 96年戒严法的基本原则。
大量的证据说明，1989年中国军人来北京不是来协助戒严，而是来镇压国内政治反对派的。首先，一些军队在4月底就已经开始调往北京。第38军已经全副武装地向北京开发。这说明，军队早在戒严前就准备镇压学生运动了，他们不是来协助戒严的。第二，李鹏宣布戒严的时候，没有正式要求军队戒严，更没有提出和邀请解放军参与戒严及其阐明军队介入的必要性。他提到的几点“动乱”的状况，不足以说明现有的警察和武装警察不能维持治安，非要全副武装军队的协助。作为中央军事委员会主席的邓小平没有正式公布其命令军队戒严的合理性、必要性和法律程序。第三，1989年5月19日李鹏宣布在北京部分地区戒严的第二天，北京突然出现了一个“中国人民解放军戒严指挥部”。按理，戒严指挥部是国务院和北京市的政府人员组成，军队的戒严指挥部应当是这个政府戒严指挥部的一部分。可是当时没有政府的戒严指挥部，由军队的戒严指挥部取而代之。第四，即便当时军队介入有必要性，军队也没有必要全副武装并由坦克开道。北京当时没有任何非法武装或暴力事件。军队完全没有必要全副武装。可是他们武装到了牙齿。以上几点说明，所有军队的介入完全是邓小平为首的政治寡头们摆脱“党的领导”和“全国人大”的监督所做出的决定，目的就是镇压学生运动以及支持学生的平民。
“六·四”屠杀后，当局自己对“六·四”的总结教训本身就意味当局对军队向民众开枪的否定。江泽民接受美国广播公司访问时说：“我们应当从这件事中吸取一些教训，正如中国一句谚语所说的‘吃一堑，长一智’”。他指防暴应由警察负责，而非军队，有必要进行更好的防暴训练，并使用橡胶子弹等非致命武器。江泽民讲的“吃一堑”当然指的是军队介入和开枪就是挫折和错误。“长一智”就是当局不再敢对以后的群众运动用全副武装的军队来对付。这说明，他们不敢在一个简单的正义原则面前继续作恶。这个简单的正义原则就是：军队不能对非武装的群众开枪。他们现在不敢直接地说“六·四”是屠杀，那不过是利益所在而已。正义早已在人民心中，他们只不过是在那里躲躲闪闪。
七 戒严是非法之举
1989年5月19日中共中央、国务院召开党政干部大会，宣布对北京部分地区戒严。戒严令是以国务院的名义决定的，由总理李鹏签署发布。戒严的理由是北京发生了严重的动乱。如前所述，戒严的理由本身不足，因为北京没有发生动乱。
国务院的戒严令的决定过程也不符合当时的法律。中国宪法规定，国务院可以决定省、自治区、直辖市范围内的部分地区戒严。在这里，宪法规定的是“国务院”的职权，而不是总理的职权。国务院由总理、副总理、国务委员、各部部长、审计长和秘书长组成。虽然宪法规定国务院实行总理负责制，但是宪法同时规定总理、副总理、国务委员、秘书长组成国务院常务会议。《中华人民共和国国务院组织法》第四条规定“国务院工作中的重大问题，必须经国务院常务会议或者国务院全体会议讨论决定”。这说明中国的总理不是西方分权理论下的行政首脑只对议会负责，在行政权范围内享有排他性的独断权力。中国宪法要求中国总理实行民主集中制，对于重大问题要经过集体讨论。这点被他们自己誉为有特色的社会主义政治制度。
对中国的首都北京部分地区实行戒严无论如何都是法律规定中的“ 重大问题”，依法要经过国务院常务会议或全体会议讨论决定。但是，1989年5月当时的国务院总理李鹏在颁布在北京部分地区实行戒严的时候，没有经过国务院常务会议或全体会议讨论决定。这一点，可以通过查阅1989年5月的《国务院公报》来证实。那里没有国务院常务会议或全体会议开会的纪录。可见，李鹏的决定只是自己根据中央军委主席邓小平等几个人做出的，没有经过合法的程序。人民对于这种非法之举当然可以向全国人大常委会请愿，要求废止之。
八 北京市“游行示威十条”是对表达自由的限制
北京市人民代表大会常务委员会在1986年12月26日通过并于次日颁布了《北京市关于游行示威的若干暂行规定》。这个规定共有十条，故简称“游行示威十条”或“十条”。有人用这“十条”来谴责参与1989年游行示威的人，同时为军队镇压找借口。这是站不住脚的。
这“十条”是在1986年底北京学潮高潮期间出台的，其内容是对宪法规定的人民的表达自由的限制，超越了宪法赋予地方人大的权限。
“ 十条”中除了空头的讲“公民依法举行的游行、示威，本市各级人民政府予以保护”外，其它都是限制性的规定。其中的最大限制是无所不包的抽象条款：“违反宪法、法律规定，损害国家的、社会的、集体的利益和其他公民的合法的自由和权利”。换句话说，政府当局可以以上条款，否定任何游行的申请，而不予加以说明，也不受其他任何机关审查。它规定了申请制度，却没有规定复议制度。可见申请制度是单方面的，实际上“十条”只是授予政府有不批准的的权力，没有给游行申请者对“不准游行”决定的复议权。换句话说，政府让你游行你就游行，不让你游行，你就不能游行。人民哪还有什么游行的自由。它还规定“人民大会堂、中南海、钓鱼台国宾馆和首都机场的周围不许可游行、示威”。这是最荒唐的规定。这些地方是公共地方，就是人民实施表达自由的地方。这个限制也师出无法，没有任何法律的授权。可见，这“十条”走得多远。其他的限制不一而足。
“十条”本属越权无效。中国是单一制的国家，不是联邦制国家的分权体制。中国的立法权在全国人民代表大会和它的常务委员会。所有的法律渊源都来自全国人大。地方人大的法规只能是为执行法律而依据授权来制定的细则。国务院的法规在地方法规之上。故在中国的立法上，中央和地方只有原则和细则之分，没有立法权排他性的划分。地方人大无权直接制定出限制宪法规定的人民自由的地方性法规。中国宪法规定了人民游行示威的自由。到1989年10月为止，中国国家立法机关和国务院没有制定具体的法律和法规限制游行示威自由。所以，北京市人大常委会的“十条”规定，超越了全国人大和国务院直接限制宪法的规定，本属越权。越权无效，这是基本的法律原则。人们提出请愿取消这个规定，是中国宪法赋予的基本权利。
“六·四”屠杀后，中国当局在几个月之内（1989年10月31日）就制定了游行示威法。这说明，中国当局认识到了“十条”的越权问题，实际上否定了“十条”。这个“十条”也在新的法律出台后作废了。因此我们不能以“十条”为标准指控北京学生和市民们的游行示威为非法，更不能以此作为解放军屠杀的理由。即便按照“十条”为标准说游行示威者为非法，那也不是解放军屠杀人民的理由。这是一个基本的道义底线。人民有“和平不服从”的权利。否则人民就不能够突破社会不公和政府对人民自由的限制以及非法之法，社会正义就无法实现。我们也就无法理解过去的奴隶何以成为今天社会平等的一员。这是自然之法，正义之法。
九 20年的反思
“六·四”屠杀后，当年参与请愿的学生领袖们不停地在反思和检讨。他们在反思，也许当初不应当绝食，也许当初应当早点撤离广场，也许他们做点什么可以缓和和政府的冲突，避免屠杀……
这种反思是必要的，但是我们的反思离不开当时的历史环境。学生们不是职业政治家。他们的热情是社会生机活泼走向发展的必需。他们的怒吼实际上是那个时代的怒吼。人民在压抑之中，他们也要怒吼。“大学生万岁”和百万人自发的上街支持，是那个时代人民给与他们的肯定。今天大多数参与者和支持者并没有否定自己。屠杀和他们的错误（如果有错误的话），是不能相提并论的。当年的学生领袖王丹的如下说法是客观和准确的：
八九年那场轰轰烈烈的民主运动，绝不是几个所谓“学生领袖”可以代表的，不能因个别领导人的问题，而抹杀广大学生参与运动的正义性；更不能因为反思学生运动的得失，而掩盖政府犯下的屠杀罪行。如果学生有策略上的错误，那么政府犯下的是罪恶，两者根本不是同一层次上的问题，因而不容混淆”。
反过来看，政府有什么反思呢？
从 1895年康有为率同梁启超等数千名举人的“公车上书”事件到1989年的以学生为先导的人民请愿运动，中国人民经历近百年的外患内乱，大小学潮也以百记。可是，无论从清朝政府，袁世凯，徐世昌、段祺瑞和曹锟等北洋军阀政府，到蒋介石国民党政府，他们都知道“镇压学生，千古罪人”。所以，百年学潮中，只有1989年的学潮遭到共产党军队的屠杀。这是人民的悲哀，共产党人的耻辱。
天安门屠杀20年过去了，中国人民在自由权利方面不仅没有得到任何进步，而且其条件比1989年还要后退。中国的政治犯和思想犯在过去20年有增无减。到今天为止，他们还关押着非政府组织者胡佳和“08宪章”的推动者刘晓波。为了控制人民的思想，政府自90年代起就花大钱在网络上设立防火墙，设立网络警察，以此来蒙住人民的眼睛，塞住人民的耳朵，和堵住人们的嘴巴。在信仰自由方面，不仅西藏人民受到了控制，内地人民一样遭到了限制甚至镇压或受到虐待，其中包括法轮功修炼者自1999年7月以来所遭受到的镇压和磨难。
20年前人们提出的反官倒反腐败的请愿诉求，到今天不但没有得到解决，甚至腐败大有越演越烈的趋势。不论中国杀了多少高官，腐败在中国得不到遏制。反腐败还只是共产党的纪律部门控制的事情。
没有人民的言论自由和民主权利，政府得不到有效的监督，腐败就得不到有效的控制。所以，我们还是要回到20年前学生们提出的请愿，将反腐败和争自由联系在一起。
有人试图用这20年的中国经济发展为20年前的屠杀辩护。这种思维方式本身是错误的。就如同一个杀人犯不能以他20年后的经济上的贡献而抹煞20年前杀人的犯罪性质一样，今天中国政府的某些进步不能证明过去行为的正确性，就如同今天的共产党人不能否定其在文革十年中犯下的罪行一样。另外，今天中国的经济发展，是中国1979年开始的改革开放政策的继续，其中有在“六·四”前后被废黜的共产党总书记胡耀邦和赵紫阳不可磨灭的功劳。如果“六·四”没有屠杀，中国一样会进步。
如果说“六·四”事件对中国以后的经济发展有什么作用的话，那就是它给中国共产党政府上了一个“紧箍咒”。“六·四”屠杀后，大多数中国人民否定了共产党执政的合法性。如果说过去人们还拥护共产党，毛泽东去世的时候许多人是真心地痛哭的话，那么“六·四”屠杀后人们已经是被动地接收一个强加的统治事实。“六·四”屠杀也让共产党背负着血债，所以执政党有了强烈的执政危机。人民成了唐僧，政府当局如同孙猴子。他们干不好，人民就会念经，使得他们头痛欲裂。于是他们知道，他们做不好就要下台或者再开枪。这种执政危机一方面使当局加强镇压反对派，一方面激励他们搞好经济发展工作。
当然“六·四”后的执政危机意识也使中国的执政党变成了一个自私党，即它将自己的执政地位凌驾于人民的福祉之上。这就是共产党最大的利益。一个执政党自有了本身的利益，那么社会的经济发展和人民的福利就会受到损害。同时也不排除共产党在危机的时候再杀人的可能性。为防止再流血，我们还得解开“六·四”这个结。
十 结论：没有结束的请愿
虽然从6月3日晚解放军在北京向平民开了第一枪始，就善恶已定，我们仍然要求中国政府，如果是一个负责任的政府，对“六·四”事件进行全面和公开的调查，并公布于众，让那些死于屠杀之下的灵魂得以安息，让20年来社会和人们为此受到的创伤得以安抚。为此，我们将天安门母亲的诉求作为我们的诉求：
（一）“六四”大屠杀是一场反人类的暴行，决非政府所说的“平息反革命暴乱”。因此，当年在邓小平主持下对“六四”事件所作的定性必须彻底推翻，并给予重新评价。
（二）“天安门母亲”认为，公正、合理地解决“六四”问题，必须满足如下三项要求，即：
1，由全国人民代表大会常务委员会组成专门的“六四”事件调查委员会，对整个“六四”事件进行独立、公正、公开的调查，并向全国人民公布调查结果，包括公布此次事件中的死者名单及人数；
2，由全国人大常委会责成政府有关部门按法定程序就每一位死者对其亲属作出公开道歉；由全国人大常委会制定并通过专项的“六四事件受害者赔偿法案”，依法给予“六四”受害者及受害亲属相应的赔偿；
3，由全国人大常委会责成检察机关对“六四”惨案立案侦查，按法定程序追究责任者的法律责任。
“说出真相 拒绝遗忘 寻求正义 呼唤良知”，这是受难者家属的呼唤，也是全体有良知的中国人的呼唤。
□ 一读者推荐
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CND８９六·四纪念馆
http://museums.cnd.org/China89/
日期 09-03-19 09:08
专题: 华夏快递
文章的URL: http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=22095
IBM's workforce
in U.S. declines in '08 but grows overseas
Company's overall workforce increased slightly last year
Patrick Thibodeau
March 19, 2009 (Computerworld) The number of workers that IBM employs in the U.S. declined by about 5% last year, but the company's overall head count is increasing because of overseas hiring.
IBM finished 2008 with 115,000 U.S. employees, down from the 121,000 it reported at the end of 2007, according to its most recent annual report released this month. Overall, IBM finished 2008 with 398,455 employees worldwide, an increase of nearly 12,000, or about 3%.
In 2007, IBM said it had 98,000 employees in Brazil, China, India and Russia, but that number increased by 15% to 113,000 last year. Most of those employees are in India.
IBM continues to cite the U.S. as the country with its largest workforce, but it is not providing a breakout of head count for India, which may well be the second-largest country for employment. In 2007, IBM said it had 74,000 workers in India.
IBM's head count could change substantially if it buys Sun Microsystems Inc. or another company this year.
Sun employed 34,900 worldwide last year, but recently announced reductions of as many as 6,000 employees. Both companies are reportedly in merger talks. The two companies have neither confirmed nor denied the reports.
IBM recently instituted a program for employees in the U.S. to take jobs overseas, but if they choose to go, these employees would be paid at local rates, not at U.S. wage levels.
IBM has had about 4,000 layoffs in the U.S. this year, according to the union Alliance at IBM.
Company's overall workforce increased slightly last year
Patrick Thibodeau
March 19, 2009 (Computerworld) The number of workers that IBM employs in the U.S. declined by about 5% last year, but the company's overall head count is increasing because of overseas hiring.
IBM finished 2008 with 115,000 U.S. employees, down from the 121,000 it reported at the end of 2007, according to its most recent annual report released this month. Overall, IBM finished 2008 with 398,455 employees worldwide, an increase of nearly 12,000, or about 3%.
In 2007, IBM said it had 98,000 employees in Brazil, China, India and Russia, but that number increased by 15% to 113,000 last year. Most of those employees are in India.
IBM continues to cite the U.S. as the country with its largest workforce, but it is not providing a breakout of head count for India, which may well be the second-largest country for employment. In 2007, IBM said it had 74,000 workers in India.
IBM's head count could change substantially if it buys Sun Microsystems Inc. or another company this year.
Sun employed 34,900 worldwide last year, but recently announced reductions of as many as 6,000 employees. Both companies are reportedly in merger talks. The two companies have neither confirmed nor denied the reports.
IBM recently instituted a program for employees in the U.S. to take jobs overseas, but if they choose to go, these employees would be paid at local rates, not at U.S. wage levels.
IBM has had about 4,000 layoffs in the U.S. this year, according to the union Alliance at IBM.
2009年3月17日星期二
China Gains Key Assets In Spate of Purchases
Oil, Minerals Are Among Acquisitions Worldwide
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 17, 2009; A01
SHANGHAI -- Chinese companies have been on a shopping spree in the past month, snapping up tens of billions of dollars' worth of key assets in Iran, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Australia and France in a global fire sale set off by the financial crisis.
The deals have allowed China to lock up supplies of oil, minerals, metals and other strategic natural resources it needs to continue to fuel its growth. The sheer scope of the agreements marks a shift in global finance, roiling energy markets and feeding worries about the future availability and prices of those commodities in other countries that compete for them, including the United States.
Just a few months ago, many countries were greeting such overtures from China with suspicion. Today, as corporations and banks in other parts of the world find themselves reluctant or unable to give out money to distressed companies, cash-rich China has become a major force driving new lending and investment.
On Feb. 12, China's state-owned metals giant Chinalco signed a $19.5 billion deal with Australia's Rio Tinto that will eventually double its stake in the world's second-largest mining company.
In three other cases, China has used loans as a way of securing energy supplies. On Feb. 17 and 18, China National Petroleum signed separate agreements with Russia and Venezuela under which China would provide $25 billion and $4 billion in loans, respectively, in exchange for long-term commitments to supply oil. And on Feb. 19, the China Development Bank struck a similar deal with Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company, agreeing to a loan of $10 billion in exchange for oil.
On Saturday, Iran announced that it had signed a $3.2 billion agreement with a Chinese consortium to develop an area beneath the Persian Gulf seabed that is believed to hold about 8 percent of the world's reserves of natural gas.
Even as global financial flows have slowed sharply overall, China has dramatically stepped up its outbound investment. In 2008, its overseas mergers and acquisitions were worth $52.1 billion -- a record, according to the research firm Dealogic. In January and February of this year, Chinese companies invested $16.3 billion abroad, meaning that if the pace holds, the total for 2009 could be nearly double last year's.
Worldwide, the value of mergers and acquisitions transactions so far this year has dropped 35 percent to $384 billion. By comparison, the United States had $186.2 billion in outbound mergers and acquisitions in 2008 and Japan had $74.3 billion.
China's state-run media outlets are calling the acquisition spree an opportunity that comes once in a hundred years, and analysts are drawing parallels to 1980s Japan.
"That China started investing or acquiring some overseas mineral resources companies with relatively low prices during the global economic crisis is quite a normal practice. Japan did the same thing in its prime development period, too," said Xu Xiangchun, consulting director for Mysteel.com, a market research and analysis firm.
It's not just Chinese corporations that are taking advantage of the economic crisis to help others while helping themselves.
The Chinese government also has come to the rescue of ailing countries, such as Jamaica and Pakistan, that it wants as allies, extending generous loans. Even Chinese consumers are taking their money abroad. In a shopping trip last month organized by an online real estate brokerage, a group of 50 individual investors from China traveled to New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco to purchase homes at prices that have crashed since the subprime crisis.
"As soon as we launched the project, we had 100 people registered and ready to go," said Dai Jianzhong, chief executive of SouFun Holdings, which organized the trip. "Now the number has reached 400. Apparently, the American real estate market has a great appeal to Chinese buyers."
China's Commerce Ministry organized a similar shopping expedition -- but for Chinese companies to visit foreign companies -- the week of Feb. 25. Commerce Minister Chen Deming took with him about 90 executives, who signed contracts worth about $10 billion in Germany, $400,000 in Switzerland, $320 million in Spain and $2 billion in Britain. The deals were mostly for the purchase of goods, including olive oil, 3,000 Jaguars and 10,000 Land Rovers.
The Commerce Ministry said Monday that it intends to send more investment missions abroad this year. Although details are still being worked out, the itineraries will probably include the United States, Japan and Southeast Asia, the ministry said.
Foreign automakers may be next on China's acquisitions list.
On Feb. 23, Weichai Power, a diesel engine company, said it would spend about $3.8 million to acquire the products, technology and brand of France's Moteurs Baudouin, which designs and manufactures marine propulsive equipment such as engines and propellers.
That was a relatively small deal, but Chen Bin, director general of the National Development and Reform Commission's Department of Industry, hinted that larger acquisitions may be in the works. He noted on the sidelines of a news conference on the economy late last month that overseas car companies are facing cash difficulties at the same time their Chinese counterparts "need their technology, brands, talent and sales networks."
"It will be a very big challenge for Chinese companies to stabilize the operations of foreign automakers and to maintain growth," Chen acknowledged, according to the official People's Daily, but he added that if the companies decide to acquire such assets, "the government will support them."
The one country that appears conspicuously absent from China's corporate bargain-hunting spree is the United States.
Many Chinese investors are still stung by the memory of China National Offshore Oil's 2005 attempt to buy a stake in the U.S. energy company Unocal. The deal fell apart after U.S. lawmakers expressed concern about the national security implications of China controlling some of the country's oil resources.
Xiong Weiping, president of Chinalco, whose bid for a larger stake in Rio Tinto is China's biggest outbound investment to date, has taken measures to address concerns as scrutiny of that deal has increased. The deal will be put to a shareholder vote in May or June and must also be approved by Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board.
At a news briefing in Sydney on March 2, Xiong assured the country that Chinalco is not seeking a majority share of the mining giant and that its management and corporate strategy would not change. Xiong emphasized that "the transaction will in no way lead to any control of the natural resources of Australia."
Zha Daojiong, an energy researcher at Peking University, said Chinese companies feel they may be discriminated against in the United States because of the mistaken perception that they are all state-owned or state-directed.
"Foreigners question these companies' intentions and tend to link their moves with government instructions," Zha said, "but I should say it is really hard to tell whether this is true nor not."
Researchers Wang Juan and Liu Liu in Beijing contributed to this report.
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 17, 2009; A01
SHANGHAI -- Chinese companies have been on a shopping spree in the past month, snapping up tens of billions of dollars' worth of key assets in Iran, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Australia and France in a global fire sale set off by the financial crisis.
The deals have allowed China to lock up supplies of oil, minerals, metals and other strategic natural resources it needs to continue to fuel its growth. The sheer scope of the agreements marks a shift in global finance, roiling energy markets and feeding worries about the future availability and prices of those commodities in other countries that compete for them, including the United States.
Just a few months ago, many countries were greeting such overtures from China with suspicion. Today, as corporations and banks in other parts of the world find themselves reluctant or unable to give out money to distressed companies, cash-rich China has become a major force driving new lending and investment.
On Feb. 12, China's state-owned metals giant Chinalco signed a $19.5 billion deal with Australia's Rio Tinto that will eventually double its stake in the world's second-largest mining company.
In three other cases, China has used loans as a way of securing energy supplies. On Feb. 17 and 18, China National Petroleum signed separate agreements with Russia and Venezuela under which China would provide $25 billion and $4 billion in loans, respectively, in exchange for long-term commitments to supply oil. And on Feb. 19, the China Development Bank struck a similar deal with Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company, agreeing to a loan of $10 billion in exchange for oil.
On Saturday, Iran announced that it had signed a $3.2 billion agreement with a Chinese consortium to develop an area beneath the Persian Gulf seabed that is believed to hold about 8 percent of the world's reserves of natural gas.
Even as global financial flows have slowed sharply overall, China has dramatically stepped up its outbound investment. In 2008, its overseas mergers and acquisitions were worth $52.1 billion -- a record, according to the research firm Dealogic. In January and February of this year, Chinese companies invested $16.3 billion abroad, meaning that if the pace holds, the total for 2009 could be nearly double last year's.
Worldwide, the value of mergers and acquisitions transactions so far this year has dropped 35 percent to $384 billion. By comparison, the United States had $186.2 billion in outbound mergers and acquisitions in 2008 and Japan had $74.3 billion.
China's state-run media outlets are calling the acquisition spree an opportunity that comes once in a hundred years, and analysts are drawing parallels to 1980s Japan.
"That China started investing or acquiring some overseas mineral resources companies with relatively low prices during the global economic crisis is quite a normal practice. Japan did the same thing in its prime development period, too," said Xu Xiangchun, consulting director for Mysteel.com, a market research and analysis firm.
It's not just Chinese corporations that are taking advantage of the economic crisis to help others while helping themselves.
The Chinese government also has come to the rescue of ailing countries, such as Jamaica and Pakistan, that it wants as allies, extending generous loans. Even Chinese consumers are taking their money abroad. In a shopping trip last month organized by an online real estate brokerage, a group of 50 individual investors from China traveled to New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco to purchase homes at prices that have crashed since the subprime crisis.
"As soon as we launched the project, we had 100 people registered and ready to go," said Dai Jianzhong, chief executive of SouFun Holdings, which organized the trip. "Now the number has reached 400. Apparently, the American real estate market has a great appeal to Chinese buyers."
China's Commerce Ministry organized a similar shopping expedition -- but for Chinese companies to visit foreign companies -- the week of Feb. 25. Commerce Minister Chen Deming took with him about 90 executives, who signed contracts worth about $10 billion in Germany, $400,000 in Switzerland, $320 million in Spain and $2 billion in Britain. The deals were mostly for the purchase of goods, including olive oil, 3,000 Jaguars and 10,000 Land Rovers.
The Commerce Ministry said Monday that it intends to send more investment missions abroad this year. Although details are still being worked out, the itineraries will probably include the United States, Japan and Southeast Asia, the ministry said.
Foreign automakers may be next on China's acquisitions list.
On Feb. 23, Weichai Power, a diesel engine company, said it would spend about $3.8 million to acquire the products, technology and brand of France's Moteurs Baudouin, which designs and manufactures marine propulsive equipment such as engines and propellers.
That was a relatively small deal, but Chen Bin, director general of the National Development and Reform Commission's Department of Industry, hinted that larger acquisitions may be in the works. He noted on the sidelines of a news conference on the economy late last month that overseas car companies are facing cash difficulties at the same time their Chinese counterparts "need their technology, brands, talent and sales networks."
"It will be a very big challenge for Chinese companies to stabilize the operations of foreign automakers and to maintain growth," Chen acknowledged, according to the official People's Daily, but he added that if the companies decide to acquire such assets, "the government will support them."
The one country that appears conspicuously absent from China's corporate bargain-hunting spree is the United States.
Many Chinese investors are still stung by the memory of China National Offshore Oil's 2005 attempt to buy a stake in the U.S. energy company Unocal. The deal fell apart after U.S. lawmakers expressed concern about the national security implications of China controlling some of the country's oil resources.
Xiong Weiping, president of Chinalco, whose bid for a larger stake in Rio Tinto is China's biggest outbound investment to date, has taken measures to address concerns as scrutiny of that deal has increased. The deal will be put to a shareholder vote in May or June and must also be approved by Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board.
At a news briefing in Sydney on March 2, Xiong assured the country that Chinalco is not seeking a majority share of the mining giant and that its management and corporate strategy would not change. Xiong emphasized that "the transaction will in no way lead to any control of the natural resources of Australia."
Zha Daojiong, an energy researcher at Peking University, said Chinese companies feel they may be discriminated against in the United States because of the mistaken perception that they are all state-owned or state-directed.
"Foreigners question these companies' intentions and tend to link their moves with government instructions," Zha said, "but I should say it is really hard to tell whether this is true nor not."
Researchers Wang Juan and Liu Liu in Beijing contributed to this report.
China Exploits Path to Growth
March 17, 2009
In Downturn, China Exploits Path to Growth
By KEITH BRADSHER
GUANGZHOU, China — The global economic downturn, and efforts to reverse it, will probably make China an even stronger economic competitor than it was before the crisis.
China, the world’s third-largest economy behind the United States and Japan, had already become more assertive; now it is exploiting its unusual position as a country with piles of cash and a strong banking system, at a time when many countries have neither, to acquire natural resources and make new friends.
Last week, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, even reminded Washington that as one of the United States’ biggest creditors, China expects Washington to safeguard its investment.
China’s leaders are turning economic crisis to competitive advantage, said economic analysts.
The country is using its nearly $600 billion economic stimulus package to make its companies better able to compete in markets at home and abroad, to retrain migrant workers on an immense scale and to rapidly expand subsidies for research and development.
Construction has already begun on new highways and rail lines that are likely to permanently reduce transportation costs.
And while American leaders struggle to revive lending — in the latest effort with a $15 billion program to help small businesses — Chinese banks lent more in the last three months than in the preceding 12 months.
“The recent tweaks to the stimulus package indicate a sharper focus on the long-term competitiveness of Chinese industry,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a former China division chief at the International Monetary Fund. “Higher expenditures on education and research and development, along with amounts already committed to infrastructure investment, will boost the economy’s productivity.”
The international economicslowdown is also doing some things that Chinese authorities had tried and failed to do for four years: slow inflation, reverse what had been an ever-growing dependence on exports and pop a real estate bubble before it could grow even bigger.
The recession in most of the large economies in the world is inflicting real pain here — causing a record plunge in Chinese exports, putting 20 million migrant workers from within China out of their jobs and raising the potential for increased and sustained social unrest. But as President Hu Jintao told the National People’s Congress last week, “Challenge and opportunity always come together — under certain conditions, one could be transformed into the other.”
To that end, Chinese companies are shopping for foreign businesses to acquire. The commerce ministry announced late Monday that it was greatly easing the government approval process for Chinese companies seeking permission to make foreign acquisitions.
The ministry is now leading its first mergers and acquisitions delegation of corporate executives to Europe; the executives are looking at companies in the automotive, textiles, food, energy, machinery, electronics and environmental protection sectors.
The government initiatives coincide with some immediate benefits of the slowdown for China. For instance, air freight and ocean shipping costs have plunged by as much as two-thirds since last summer as demand has fallen.
Blue-collar wages, which had doubled in four years in some coastal cities, have fallen for many workers this winter, causing personal pain but reviving China’s advantage in labor costs.
Unemployment has pushed down the piece rates that factories pay for each garment sewn or toy assembled. Overtime has practically disappeared.
Lao Shu-jen, a migrant worker from Jiangxi province who works at a blue jeans factory here, said that he earned $350 a month late last year but would be lucky to earn $220 a month this spring.
“There are a lot of blue jeans” piling up in the back of the factory with no sign of buyers, he said.
Highly qualified middle managers, in acutely short supply a year ago, are now widely available because of layoffs. They are likely to stay that way — although white-collar unemployment could pose a threat of social unrest. Limited job opportunities contributed to the Tiananmen Square protests 20 years ago.
Some jobs are still available now. Four days after a shoe factory closed here for lack of orders, laying off several hundred workers, there were four ads on the factory’s front gate from other shoe factories seeking to hire skilled workers.
Unskilled laborers face the greatest difficulty finding jobs. But with subsidies from Beijing, provincial governments have embarked on large-scale vocational training programs of the sort that the United States has discussed but not actually tried.
Guangdong province alone, here in southeastern China, is quadrupling its vocational training program this year to teach four million workers engaged in three-month or six-month programs.
The main comparable program in the United States, under the Workforce Investment Act, has been training fewer than 250,000 a year, although President Obama’s stimulus program provides funding that could double the number of American workers in training programs.
The Guangdong training programs are half in the classroom and half in the factory, usually the business that plans to employ the trainees. By increasing productivity, training programs can hold down corporate labor costs per unit of production for years to come.
China’s huge training programs may also help preserve social stability by keeping the unemployed off the streets, although Chinese officials deny that is their intention.
Multinationals are cutting back less in China than elsewhere — and some are even expanding.
Intel is shutting down semiconductor production lines sooner than previously planned at older, smaller operations in Malaysia and the Philippines as it opens a large, new factory in Chengdu in western China.
IMI Plc., the big British manufacturer of items as diverse as power plant valves and brewery equipment, has just announced an accelerated shift of operations to China, India and the Czech Republic, after cutting its global work force by 10 percent since December.
And Hon Hai, the 600,000-employee Taiwanese company that is one of the world’s largest contract manufacturers of products like the Apple iPhone and Nintendo Wii game console, has just increased employment by nearly 5 percent in China even as it cuts overall employment by 3 to 5 percent.
Yet China’s economy still has weaknesses. Little is being done to shift the economy away from a heavy reliance on capital spending and toward greater consumption. The social safety net of pensions, health care and education barely exists, so Chinese families save heavily.
Strict government policies on labor and the environment, intended to address serious shortfalls in both and imposed a year ago when China felt more confident of its economic strength, are prompting low-tech industries like toy manufacturing to move to other, less stringent countries.
Top labor officials insisted during the National People’s Congress that they would resist suggestions from some Chinese executives that the new standards be relaxed.
In Downturn, China Exploits Path to Growth
By KEITH BRADSHER
GUANGZHOU, China — The global economic downturn, and efforts to reverse it, will probably make China an even stronger economic competitor than it was before the crisis.
China, the world’s third-largest economy behind the United States and Japan, had already become more assertive; now it is exploiting its unusual position as a country with piles of cash and a strong banking system, at a time when many countries have neither, to acquire natural resources and make new friends.
Last week, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, even reminded Washington that as one of the United States’ biggest creditors, China expects Washington to safeguard its investment.
China’s leaders are turning economic crisis to competitive advantage, said economic analysts.
The country is using its nearly $600 billion economic stimulus package to make its companies better able to compete in markets at home and abroad, to retrain migrant workers on an immense scale and to rapidly expand subsidies for research and development.
Construction has already begun on new highways and rail lines that are likely to permanently reduce transportation costs.
And while American leaders struggle to revive lending — in the latest effort with a $15 billion program to help small businesses — Chinese banks lent more in the last three months than in the preceding 12 months.
“The recent tweaks to the stimulus package indicate a sharper focus on the long-term competitiveness of Chinese industry,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a former China division chief at the International Monetary Fund. “Higher expenditures on education and research and development, along with amounts already committed to infrastructure investment, will boost the economy’s productivity.”
The international economicslowdown is also doing some things that Chinese authorities had tried and failed to do for four years: slow inflation, reverse what had been an ever-growing dependence on exports and pop a real estate bubble before it could grow even bigger.
The recession in most of the large economies in the world is inflicting real pain here — causing a record plunge in Chinese exports, putting 20 million migrant workers from within China out of their jobs and raising the potential for increased and sustained social unrest. But as President Hu Jintao told the National People’s Congress last week, “Challenge and opportunity always come together — under certain conditions, one could be transformed into the other.”
To that end, Chinese companies are shopping for foreign businesses to acquire. The commerce ministry announced late Monday that it was greatly easing the government approval process for Chinese companies seeking permission to make foreign acquisitions.
The ministry is now leading its first mergers and acquisitions delegation of corporate executives to Europe; the executives are looking at companies in the automotive, textiles, food, energy, machinery, electronics and environmental protection sectors.
The government initiatives coincide with some immediate benefits of the slowdown for China. For instance, air freight and ocean shipping costs have plunged by as much as two-thirds since last summer as demand has fallen.
Blue-collar wages, which had doubled in four years in some coastal cities, have fallen for many workers this winter, causing personal pain but reviving China’s advantage in labor costs.
Unemployment has pushed down the piece rates that factories pay for each garment sewn or toy assembled. Overtime has practically disappeared.
Lao Shu-jen, a migrant worker from Jiangxi province who works at a blue jeans factory here, said that he earned $350 a month late last year but would be lucky to earn $220 a month this spring.
“There are a lot of blue jeans” piling up in the back of the factory with no sign of buyers, he said.
Highly qualified middle managers, in acutely short supply a year ago, are now widely available because of layoffs. They are likely to stay that way — although white-collar unemployment could pose a threat of social unrest. Limited job opportunities contributed to the Tiananmen Square protests 20 years ago.
Some jobs are still available now. Four days after a shoe factory closed here for lack of orders, laying off several hundred workers, there were four ads on the factory’s front gate from other shoe factories seeking to hire skilled workers.
Unskilled laborers face the greatest difficulty finding jobs. But with subsidies from Beijing, provincial governments have embarked on large-scale vocational training programs of the sort that the United States has discussed but not actually tried.
Guangdong province alone, here in southeastern China, is quadrupling its vocational training program this year to teach four million workers engaged in three-month or six-month programs.
The main comparable program in the United States, under the Workforce Investment Act, has been training fewer than 250,000 a year, although President Obama’s stimulus program provides funding that could double the number of American workers in training programs.
The Guangdong training programs are half in the classroom and half in the factory, usually the business that plans to employ the trainees. By increasing productivity, training programs can hold down corporate labor costs per unit of production for years to come.
China’s huge training programs may also help preserve social stability by keeping the unemployed off the streets, although Chinese officials deny that is their intention.
Multinationals are cutting back less in China than elsewhere — and some are even expanding.
Intel is shutting down semiconductor production lines sooner than previously planned at older, smaller operations in Malaysia and the Philippines as it opens a large, new factory in Chengdu in western China.
IMI Plc., the big British manufacturer of items as diverse as power plant valves and brewery equipment, has just announced an accelerated shift of operations to China, India and the Czech Republic, after cutting its global work force by 10 percent since December.
And Hon Hai, the 600,000-employee Taiwanese company that is one of the world’s largest contract manufacturers of products like the Apple iPhone and Nintendo Wii game console, has just increased employment by nearly 5 percent in China even as it cuts overall employment by 3 to 5 percent.
Yet China’s economy still has weaknesses. Little is being done to shift the economy away from a heavy reliance on capital spending and toward greater consumption. The social safety net of pensions, health care and education barely exists, so Chinese families save heavily.
Strict government policies on labor and the environment, intended to address serious shortfalls in both and imposed a year ago when China felt more confident of its economic strength, are prompting low-tech industries like toy manufacturing to move to other, less stringent countries.
Top labor officials insisted during the National People’s Congress that they would resist suggestions from some Chinese executives that the new standards be relaxed.
2009年3月16日星期一
The State of the Data Storage Job Market
March 16, 2009
By Drew Robb
Storage professionals don't appear to be escaping the layoff craze unscathed — and data storage vendors themselves might just share part of the blame.
Like the rest of the economy, storage jobs are being lost, both within the companies that make data storage hardware and software and their customers. And there is some question whether vendor focus on automation and ease of use could be adding to the trend, making more experienced employees vulnerable and allowing specialists to be replaced by generalists.
But more on the broader issues later; first to the general state of the storage job market.
"Organizations are downsizing, right-sizing or making other changes that have resulted in some head count reduction in or around storage, or staff getting caught up in number reduction scenarios," said Greg Schulz, senior analyst and founder of StorageIO Group.
Vendors such as EMC (NYSE: EMC), HP (NYSE: HPQ), Sun (NASDAQ: JAVA), Seagate (NYSE: STX), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Western Digital (NYSE: WDC), Pillar Data and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) have all announced storage-related layoffs.
On the end user side, there is more of a mixed bag. SunGard Availability Services of Wayne, Pa., which provides data protection and collocation facilities to thousands of companies, reports that its customer base is experiencing a headcount loss of as much as 20 percent over the course of 2009.
Fortunately for storage professionals, much of those job losses appear to be outside the storage perimeter. The five storage specialists at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif., are safe — at least for now. The school has cut its IT numbers from 105 to 95 in the past two years. Another 10 will probably go this year, but from other areas of IT.
"We already have a lean storage shop and we won't be changing our personnel count there in the short term," said Tim Chester, CIO at Pepperdine.
Jason Williams, COO and CTO at Digitar Inc. of Boise, Idaho, said the company has "seen more specialized functionalities being cut and those responsibilities being absorbed by the remaining staff. Whereas before, there may have been a dedicated Exchange team, those people are now expected to help with the storage and database areas."
While storage jobs appear to be holding up in many areas, the news isn't so good for contractors. Chip Nickolett runs Comprehensive Consulting Solutions Inc. of Brookfield, Wisc. He has noticed many cutbacks in recent months. He pointed out, though, that relatively few of the cutbacks have been on the operational side.
"In many cases, contractors are being released and staff is being tasked with doing more," said Nickolett. "Although it is resulting in project delays and longer work days, I haven't seen many complaints since people are just happy to still be working."
The Rise of the IT Generalist
On the positive side, there are storage jobs out there, according to Schulz. He points to the job listings on LinkedIn, Twitter and other message boards, as well as the word on the street.
"I'm hearing of organizations looking for staff, particularly in more specialized skills and hands-on roles, including cross-functional areas such as storage/virtualization, server and storage performance/capacity planning, networking/storage, mainframe/open systems and other combinations," he said.
He sees the beginning of a trend toward IT generalists — people with a broader background that spans servers, storage, networking, hardware and software are much in demand, although more so based on actual experience than general familiarity.
Williams confirms this. His company makes a point of hiring mainly generalists, and he believes that companies will adopt this in the near term because of financial constraints.
"Generalists bring new perspectives to siloed problem areas of storage that were simply not in the vocabulary of the specialists," said Williams. "As a result, I think we'll see a trend toward generalist initially driven by financial concerns, adopted even more strongly due to the innovative solutions that start coming out of the IT department."
Chester, too, embraces the trend. He prefers people with a wider range in IT so he can train them on the specific tasks and technologies they need to know. He points to such assets as strong communication skills, project implementation, teamwork and a process orientation as some of the key areas that must augment technical talent.
"The most valuable employees have a broad base of technical skills and also bring versatility via analysis, project management and business process management know-how," said Chester. "This has been the trend for some time and the economy is only accelerating it."
Mark Peters, an analyst with Enterprise Strategy Group, has also spotted the move toward the IT generalist. He thinks this trend will continue for some time as it's not just born of economic necessity, but by the blurring of infrastructure tools. The advent of blades, for example, has led to the introduction of storage blades that can even host some applications if required. Further, virtualization is likely to extend this. Provisioning could one day be done on one screen without the need for any kind of specialist intervention.
"What is abundantly clear — and has been advancing even before the recent economic calamity — is that there are fewer storage specialists in all but the largest shops," said Peters. "Storage through the mid-sized organizations is very often both a part-time and shared occupation."
Nickolett sees staffing levels remaining flat or decreasing. As people leave, they just aren't being replaced. "There are enough skilled and unemployed people out there that I wouldn't expect to see this type of generalist trend in the next six to nine months," he said.
Another naysayer is Chris Beck, network administrator for the City of Fontana, Calif. His department just lost one full-time help desk technician and two interns. Fortunately, upper management has realized that new projects must slow down due to this, so work won't be increasing as much as it has in the past.
"If a second round of layoffs were to hit, I see generalist positions being laid off first, with the specialists being asked to pick up the workload," said Beck.
Are IT Specialists Endangered?
One technology that could make IT jobs more vulnerable is automation — the ability to automate tasks that were once done manually, and in some cases, apply the experiences of a large number of users automatically. Just listen to this sales pitch from Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) for Veritas Operations Services:
By tracking best practices, optimal configurations, hardware compatibility lists and software compatibility lists for Veritas Storage Foundation, Veritas Cluster Server, common operating systems and storage area network (SAN) software and firmware, the service identifies data center risks and issues alerts that include remediation steps. Symantec says the technology can make "a new person as effective as a 10-year veteran."
Vendors working on automation technologies emphasize that they are intended to free up high-level employees for strategically important business initiatives, but in a down economy with high job losses, it's not hard to imagine them being put to another use.
EMC, HP, NetApp (NASDAQ: NTAP) and startup Continuity Software are among the companies working on automation.
Is it possible, then, that the storage or IT specialist could go the way of the dinosaur? Schulz, for one, says no.
"This does not mean specialists will go away," he said.
The automation efforts of recent years have taken some of the long-term stability out of such fields as backup, storage management and provisioning. But the dream of point and click storage is still a long way off. It may be another decade or more before the hype around automation catches up with reality.
Even so, those with highly specialized abilities in fields like Fibre Channel, backup and tape administration would be advised not to rest on their laurels. It might be a smart career move for IT employees to add wider experience to their resumes as a way of convincing job cutters to leave them alone and to increase their attractiveness in the event that they wind up back on the job market.
"Storage specialists should look at expanding their horizons and skill sets to maintain a competitive edge in environments that are shifting to more virtualized infrastructures where interdependencies increase," said Schulz.
By Drew Robb
Storage professionals don't appear to be escaping the layoff craze unscathed — and data storage vendors themselves might just share part of the blame.
Like the rest of the economy, storage jobs are being lost, both within the companies that make data storage hardware and software and their customers. And there is some question whether vendor focus on automation and ease of use could be adding to the trend, making more experienced employees vulnerable and allowing specialists to be replaced by generalists.
But more on the broader issues later; first to the general state of the storage job market.
"Organizations are downsizing, right-sizing or making other changes that have resulted in some head count reduction in or around storage, or staff getting caught up in number reduction scenarios," said Greg Schulz, senior analyst and founder of StorageIO Group.
Vendors such as EMC (NYSE: EMC), HP (NYSE: HPQ), Sun (NASDAQ: JAVA), Seagate (NYSE: STX), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Western Digital (NYSE: WDC), Pillar Data and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) have all announced storage-related layoffs.
On the end user side, there is more of a mixed bag. SunGard Availability Services of Wayne, Pa., which provides data protection and collocation facilities to thousands of companies, reports that its customer base is experiencing a headcount loss of as much as 20 percent over the course of 2009.
Fortunately for storage professionals, much of those job losses appear to be outside the storage perimeter. The five storage specialists at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif., are safe — at least for now. The school has cut its IT numbers from 105 to 95 in the past two years. Another 10 will probably go this year, but from other areas of IT.
"We already have a lean storage shop and we won't be changing our personnel count there in the short term," said Tim Chester, CIO at Pepperdine.
Jason Williams, COO and CTO at Digitar Inc. of Boise, Idaho, said the company has "seen more specialized functionalities being cut and those responsibilities being absorbed by the remaining staff. Whereas before, there may have been a dedicated Exchange team, those people are now expected to help with the storage and database areas."
While storage jobs appear to be holding up in many areas, the news isn't so good for contractors. Chip Nickolett runs Comprehensive Consulting Solutions Inc. of Brookfield, Wisc. He has noticed many cutbacks in recent months. He pointed out, though, that relatively few of the cutbacks have been on the operational side.
"In many cases, contractors are being released and staff is being tasked with doing more," said Nickolett. "Although it is resulting in project delays and longer work days, I haven't seen many complaints since people are just happy to still be working."
The Rise of the IT Generalist
On the positive side, there are storage jobs out there, according to Schulz. He points to the job listings on LinkedIn, Twitter and other message boards, as well as the word on the street.
"I'm hearing of organizations looking for staff, particularly in more specialized skills and hands-on roles, including cross-functional areas such as storage/virtualization, server and storage performance/capacity planning, networking/storage, mainframe/open systems and other combinations," he said.
He sees the beginning of a trend toward IT generalists — people with a broader background that spans servers, storage, networking, hardware and software are much in demand, although more so based on actual experience than general familiarity.
Williams confirms this. His company makes a point of hiring mainly generalists, and he believes that companies will adopt this in the near term because of financial constraints.
"Generalists bring new perspectives to siloed problem areas of storage that were simply not in the vocabulary of the specialists," said Williams. "As a result, I think we'll see a trend toward generalist initially driven by financial concerns, adopted even more strongly due to the innovative solutions that start coming out of the IT department."
Chester, too, embraces the trend. He prefers people with a wider range in IT so he can train them on the specific tasks and technologies they need to know. He points to such assets as strong communication skills, project implementation, teamwork and a process orientation as some of the key areas that must augment technical talent.
"The most valuable employees have a broad base of technical skills and also bring versatility via analysis, project management and business process management know-how," said Chester. "This has been the trend for some time and the economy is only accelerating it."
Mark Peters, an analyst with Enterprise Strategy Group, has also spotted the move toward the IT generalist. He thinks this trend will continue for some time as it's not just born of economic necessity, but by the blurring of infrastructure tools. The advent of blades, for example, has led to the introduction of storage blades that can even host some applications if required. Further, virtualization is likely to extend this. Provisioning could one day be done on one screen without the need for any kind of specialist intervention.
"What is abundantly clear — and has been advancing even before the recent economic calamity — is that there are fewer storage specialists in all but the largest shops," said Peters. "Storage through the mid-sized organizations is very often both a part-time and shared occupation."
Nickolett sees staffing levels remaining flat or decreasing. As people leave, they just aren't being replaced. "There are enough skilled and unemployed people out there that I wouldn't expect to see this type of generalist trend in the next six to nine months," he said.
Another naysayer is Chris Beck, network administrator for the City of Fontana, Calif. His department just lost one full-time help desk technician and two interns. Fortunately, upper management has realized that new projects must slow down due to this, so work won't be increasing as much as it has in the past.
"If a second round of layoffs were to hit, I see generalist positions being laid off first, with the specialists being asked to pick up the workload," said Beck.
Are IT Specialists Endangered?
One technology that could make IT jobs more vulnerable is automation — the ability to automate tasks that were once done manually, and in some cases, apply the experiences of a large number of users automatically. Just listen to this sales pitch from Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) for Veritas Operations Services:
By tracking best practices, optimal configurations, hardware compatibility lists and software compatibility lists for Veritas Storage Foundation, Veritas Cluster Server, common operating systems and storage area network (SAN) software and firmware, the service identifies data center risks and issues alerts that include remediation steps. Symantec says the technology can make "a new person as effective as a 10-year veteran."
Vendors working on automation technologies emphasize that they are intended to free up high-level employees for strategically important business initiatives, but in a down economy with high job losses, it's not hard to imagine them being put to another use.
EMC, HP, NetApp (NASDAQ: NTAP) and startup Continuity Software are among the companies working on automation.
Is it possible, then, that the storage or IT specialist could go the way of the dinosaur? Schulz, for one, says no.
"This does not mean specialists will go away," he said.
The automation efforts of recent years have taken some of the long-term stability out of such fields as backup, storage management and provisioning. But the dream of point and click storage is still a long way off. It may be another decade or more before the hype around automation catches up with reality.
Even so, those with highly specialized abilities in fields like Fibre Channel, backup and tape administration would be advised not to rest on their laurels. It might be a smart career move for IT employees to add wider experience to their resumes as a way of convincing job cutters to leave them alone and to increase their attractiveness in the event that they wind up back on the job market.
"Storage specialists should look at expanding their horizons and skill sets to maintain a competitive edge in environments that are shifting to more virtualized infrastructures where interdependencies increase," said Schulz.
Layoff survival guide
Gerri gives her tips on making the most out of the benefits available to you, if you've received a pink slip.
By Gerri Willis, CNN personal finance editor
March 16, 2009
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Since the recession began, 4.4 million people have lost their jobs. Here are some steps on how you can survive a pink slip in this week's survival guide.
Your job number one here is to know your rights. You are due wages, including overtime or commission. Severance, sick time or vacation pay is at your employer's discretion. Policies will vary here.
If you think your rights have been violated, call the Department of Labor at 866-4-USA-DOL.
Be sure to get all the public assistance you can -- the average worker is unemployed for five months -- but there's no guarantee how long it will take to find a new gig.
Apply for jobless benefits -- they've been expanded to up to 33 weeks of benefits, and as much as 59 weeks for people living in states with high rates of joblessness.
You'll be paid roughly $325 a week and the first $2,400 will be exempt from federal taxes.
Check out workforcesecurity.doleta.gov to find details for your state. Don't wait. It takes two to three weeks before benefits start.
The government maintains local career centers where you can go for advice. Go to careeronestop.org for details.
When it comes to health benefits, here's what you'll want to think about.
First try to get on a working family member's plan. You don't have to wait until open enrollment. This will be the cheapest option.
If you can't get on someone else's plan, make sure to apply for COBRA benefits. COBRA benefits are simply an extension of your existing health insurance coverage, but the difference is that you pick up the tab.
The stimulus package includes some assistance from the federal government, which will pick up 65% of your COBRA premiums. Bear in mind how important this is because the number one cause of bankruptcy is high medical bills. Go to the Department of Labor's Web site at Dol.gov for more information on COBRA.
Got a question about jobs or unemployment? We want to hear from you. Send us an email and a picture and your question could be answered in an upcoming story on CNNMoney.com.
By Gerri Willis, CNN personal finance editor
March 16, 2009
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Since the recession began, 4.4 million people have lost their jobs. Here are some steps on how you can survive a pink slip in this week's survival guide.
Your job number one here is to know your rights. You are due wages, including overtime or commission. Severance, sick time or vacation pay is at your employer's discretion. Policies will vary here.
If you think your rights have been violated, call the Department of Labor at 866-4-USA-DOL.
Be sure to get all the public assistance you can -- the average worker is unemployed for five months -- but there's no guarantee how long it will take to find a new gig.
Apply for jobless benefits -- they've been expanded to up to 33 weeks of benefits, and as much as 59 weeks for people living in states with high rates of joblessness.
You'll be paid roughly $325 a week and the first $2,400 will be exempt from federal taxes.
Check out workforcesecurity.doleta.gov to find details for your state. Don't wait. It takes two to three weeks before benefits start.
The government maintains local career centers where you can go for advice. Go to careeronestop.org for details.
When it comes to health benefits, here's what you'll want to think about.
First try to get on a working family member's plan. You don't have to wait until open enrollment. This will be the cheapest option.
If you can't get on someone else's plan, make sure to apply for COBRA benefits. COBRA benefits are simply an extension of your existing health insurance coverage, but the difference is that you pick up the tab.
The stimulus package includes some assistance from the federal government, which will pick up 65% of your COBRA premiums. Bear in mind how important this is because the number one cause of bankruptcy is high medical bills. Go to the Department of Labor's Web site at Dol.gov for more information on COBRA.
Got a question about jobs or unemployment? We want to hear from you. Send us an email and a picture and your question could be answered in an upcoming story on CNNMoney.com.
2009年3月14日星期六
China Worried About U.S. Debt
Biggest Creditor Nation Demands A Guarantee
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, March 14, 2009; A01
Exerting its new influence as the U.S. government's largest creditor, China yesterday demanded that the Obama administration "guarantee the safety" of its $1 trillion in American bonds as Washington goes further into debt to combat the economic crisis.
Chinese Premier Wen Jinbao made the demand at the end of the National People's Congress in Beijing at a time when relations between the two nations show fresh signs of strain.
"We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," Wen said. "To be honest, I am definitely a little worried."
China surpassed Japan last year as the largest foreign holder of Treasury bonds. Any indication that it intends to cease those purchases -- or, worse, stage a sell-off -- could drive up the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, as well as send mortgage rates higher for millions of Americans.
That reality, experts say, has given China more leverage in its dealings with Washington, with some seeing Wen's comments yesterday as amounting to economic saber-rattling. The words came only days after a confrontation in international waters between a U.S. military ship and five Chinese vessels that sparked recriminations on both sides of the Pacific. Chinese officials have also signaled alarm over a growing "protectionist" sentiment in the U.S. Congress that could further endanger its exports, now in sharp decline as world demand spirals during the global economic crisis.
Those circumstances illustrate the pitfalls the Obama administration is facing as it charts its relationship with China. In January, for instance, the administration signaled that it would confront Beijing on the manipulation of its currency, the yuan, which has been kept artificially low against the U.S. dollar, making Chinese products cheaper around the world. Critics call that one of the major factors behind the U.S. trade deficit.
"The power that China now has is that its actions are seen as a leading indicator of the confidence that foreign investors will have in the ability of the U.S. government to pay the debt," said Eswar Prasad, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "These comments are saber-rattling in the sense that they are using that leverage to tell the U.S. to back off on currency policy and trade policy."
A number of Chinese officials have expressed concern about the future of Beijing's holdings of U.S. debt. American officials have sought to ease those concerns, effectively acknowledging the importance of China's role as Washington's banker. Last month, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged the Chinese to keep buying U.S. bonds. Asked about the increasingly jittery reaction in China to the rising U.S. debt, White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers yesterday defended the expensive policies that are forcing the nation to borrow a record $2.5 trillion this year, by White House estimates.
"In the short run, the need is to get the economy going again," Summers told a packed auditorium at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. Summers acknowledged that fiscal stimulus and various financial-sector bailouts are forcing the nation to borrow massive sums, but the alternative, he said, would be much worse. "If deflation sets in, if the GDP collapses further . . . if that happens, the magnitude of the federal borrowing, as large as it is today, will be dwarfed. It will be far, far larger."
But concern is rising about the value of U.S. bonds. Though they remain the choice for investors seeking a safe haven in hard economic times, analysts are already murmuring about a possible downgrade on the rating of U.S. Treasurys in the future. The talk comes as Washington is issuing more debt and printing more dollars to stimulate the economy -- something that could bring down the value of the dollar in the months to come. That, in turn, would dilute the value of the U.S. dollar-denominated bonds held by the Chinese and other investors. Wen called on the United States to "maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets."
Wen, however, stopped far short of saying China would cease purchasing Treasurys. Although analysts say China may already be moving to curb some purchases of U.S. debt, any move to sell off its current holdings would severely deflate their value on world markets -- hurting the Chinese as well as the Americans. Years of red-hot growth have allowed China to build up the world's largest reserves -- some $2 trillion. But analysts say almost half are held in U.S.-government-backed debt.
The White House sought to reassure global investors about the safety of U.S. Treasury securities. "There is no safer investment in the world than in the United States," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.
Longer-term Treasurys weakened slightly in trading after Wen's comments about soaring U.S. debt.
Additionally, it is not in China's interest to enter into economic confrontation with its largest client -- the United States -- particularly as its exports are in free fall worldwide. Though the Department of Commerce yesterday said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed 9.7 percent in January to its smallest level since October 2002, the deficit with China alone actually increased slightly, to $20.57 billion.
"I think what they're trying to say right now is, 'Don't take any steps that would impair our ability to access your market,' " said Auggie Tantillo, executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, an organization of U.S. businesses critical of China's trade policies. "The Chinese are starting to flex their muscles, they are becoming more powerful commercially and economically, and they want us to know it."
Staff writers Lori Montgomery in Washington and Ariana Eunjung Cha in Shanghai contributed to this report.
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, March 14, 2009; A01
Exerting its new influence as the U.S. government's largest creditor, China yesterday demanded that the Obama administration "guarantee the safety" of its $1 trillion in American bonds as Washington goes further into debt to combat the economic crisis.
Chinese Premier Wen Jinbao made the demand at the end of the National People's Congress in Beijing at a time when relations between the two nations show fresh signs of strain.
"We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," Wen said. "To be honest, I am definitely a little worried."
China surpassed Japan last year as the largest foreign holder of Treasury bonds. Any indication that it intends to cease those purchases -- or, worse, stage a sell-off -- could drive up the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, as well as send mortgage rates higher for millions of Americans.
That reality, experts say, has given China more leverage in its dealings with Washington, with some seeing Wen's comments yesterday as amounting to economic saber-rattling. The words came only days after a confrontation in international waters between a U.S. military ship and five Chinese vessels that sparked recriminations on both sides of the Pacific. Chinese officials have also signaled alarm over a growing "protectionist" sentiment in the U.S. Congress that could further endanger its exports, now in sharp decline as world demand spirals during the global economic crisis.
Those circumstances illustrate the pitfalls the Obama administration is facing as it charts its relationship with China. In January, for instance, the administration signaled that it would confront Beijing on the manipulation of its currency, the yuan, which has been kept artificially low against the U.S. dollar, making Chinese products cheaper around the world. Critics call that one of the major factors behind the U.S. trade deficit.
"The power that China now has is that its actions are seen as a leading indicator of the confidence that foreign investors will have in the ability of the U.S. government to pay the debt," said Eswar Prasad, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "These comments are saber-rattling in the sense that they are using that leverage to tell the U.S. to back off on currency policy and trade policy."
A number of Chinese officials have expressed concern about the future of Beijing's holdings of U.S. debt. American officials have sought to ease those concerns, effectively acknowledging the importance of China's role as Washington's banker. Last month, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged the Chinese to keep buying U.S. bonds. Asked about the increasingly jittery reaction in China to the rising U.S. debt, White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers yesterday defended the expensive policies that are forcing the nation to borrow a record $2.5 trillion this year, by White House estimates.
"In the short run, the need is to get the economy going again," Summers told a packed auditorium at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. Summers acknowledged that fiscal stimulus and various financial-sector bailouts are forcing the nation to borrow massive sums, but the alternative, he said, would be much worse. "If deflation sets in, if the GDP collapses further . . . if that happens, the magnitude of the federal borrowing, as large as it is today, will be dwarfed. It will be far, far larger."
But concern is rising about the value of U.S. bonds. Though they remain the choice for investors seeking a safe haven in hard economic times, analysts are already murmuring about a possible downgrade on the rating of U.S. Treasurys in the future. The talk comes as Washington is issuing more debt and printing more dollars to stimulate the economy -- something that could bring down the value of the dollar in the months to come. That, in turn, would dilute the value of the U.S. dollar-denominated bonds held by the Chinese and other investors. Wen called on the United States to "maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets."
Wen, however, stopped far short of saying China would cease purchasing Treasurys. Although analysts say China may already be moving to curb some purchases of U.S. debt, any move to sell off its current holdings would severely deflate their value on world markets -- hurting the Chinese as well as the Americans. Years of red-hot growth have allowed China to build up the world's largest reserves -- some $2 trillion. But analysts say almost half are held in U.S.-government-backed debt.
The White House sought to reassure global investors about the safety of U.S. Treasury securities. "There is no safer investment in the world than in the United States," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.
Longer-term Treasurys weakened slightly in trading after Wen's comments about soaring U.S. debt.
Additionally, it is not in China's interest to enter into economic confrontation with its largest client -- the United States -- particularly as its exports are in free fall worldwide. Though the Department of Commerce yesterday said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed 9.7 percent in January to its smallest level since October 2002, the deficit with China alone actually increased slightly, to $20.57 billion.
"I think what they're trying to say right now is, 'Don't take any steps that would impair our ability to access your market,' " said Auggie Tantillo, executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, an organization of U.S. businesses critical of China's trade policies. "The Chinese are starting to flex their muscles, they are becoming more powerful commercially and economically, and they want us to know it."
Staff writers Lori Montgomery in Washington and Ariana Eunjung Cha in Shanghai contributed to this report.
2009年3月11日星期三
House Swap Safety Tips
Advertising your property for trade through the Internet is very similar to posting a "For Sale by Owner" sign in your yard or placing a classified ad in the newspaper. There is a small risk that a person inquiring about your property would not be a qualified buyer or could be someone you would rather not meet.
It is important to use common sense and follow simple safety precautions when meeting your potential trading partners for the first time.
Exchange as much information as possible over the phone or through email before meeting anyone in person or scheduling house showings. Tips: you might want to ask for the other party's place of employment, personal references or verify the ownership of the property that is offered for trade.
When scheduling a house showing, arrange for a friend or family member to be present. Do not go to a stranger's house alone.
Minimize the risk of potential mishaps when dealing with strangers by employing the services of a real estate agent. Once you have found a possible trading partner on our site, use your agent's help to guide you through the rest of the exchange process, from house showings to buyer qualification to negotiations and the final transaction. In exchange for a sales commission you will enjoy the same level of security as you would in a conventional real estate sale.
It is important to use common sense and follow simple safety precautions when meeting your potential trading partners for the first time.
Exchange as much information as possible over the phone or through email before meeting anyone in person or scheduling house showings. Tips: you might want to ask for the other party's place of employment, personal references or verify the ownership of the property that is offered for trade.
When scheduling a house showing, arrange for a friend or family member to be present. Do not go to a stranger's house alone.
Minimize the risk of potential mishaps when dealing with strangers by employing the services of a real estate agent. Once you have found a possible trading partner on our site, use your agent's help to guide you through the rest of the exchange process, from house showings to buyer qualification to negotiations and the final transaction. In exchange for a sales commission you will enjoy the same level of security as you would in a conventional real estate sale.
Would-Be Protesters Pay a Price
In China, Would-Be Protesters Pay a Price
Nation Had Promised Outlet During Games
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, March 11, 2009; A01
ZHANGZHOU, China -- When Ji Sizun heard that the Chinese government had agreed to create three special zones in Beijing for peaceful public protests during the 2008 Summer Olympics, he celebrated. He said in an interview at the time that he believed the offer was sincere and represented the beginning of a new era for human rights in China.
Ji, 59, a self-taught legal advocate who had spent 10 years fighting against corrupt officials in his home province of Fujian on China's southeastern coast, immediately packed his bags and was one of the first in line in Beijing to file his application to protest.
It is now clear that his hope was misplaced.
In the end, official reports show, China never approved a single protest application -- despite its repeated pledges to improve its human rights record when it won the bid to host the Games. Some would-be applicants were taken away by force by security officials and held in hotels to prevent them from filing the paperwork. Others were scared away by warnings that they could face "difficulties" if they went through with their applications.
Ji has spent the past eight months in various states of arrest and detention. In January, he was sentenced to three years in prison, the maximum penalty allowed, on charges of faking official seals on documents he filed on behalf of his clients. Ji is appealing.
His relatives and human rights groups argue that the entire court case was a farce -- a punishment for Ji's refusal to back down during the Olympics.
"It wasn't fair to arrest him like this. All he did was to help ordinary people get their voices heard. For that they threw some fake accusations at him," said his sister Ji Xiuzhuang, 63.
Only 77 applications were officially filed. Even so, all but three were subsequently withdrawn, the state-run New China News Agency said, after authorities "satisfactorily addressed" petitioners' concerns. Of the rest, two were rejected because the applicants did not provide adequate information, and the last because it violated China's laws on demonstrations.
Since the Games in August, the situation for the Chinese citizens who had tried to apply for the Olympics permits has worsened, and some of the more outspoken applicants, such as Ji, have been harassed or detained.
Two women from Beijing in their late 70s, Wu Dianyuan and Wang Xiuying, were sentenced to a year of reeducation in a labor camp for protesting their forced eviction from their homes in 2001; the sentence was reduced and later rescinded, but the women said in an interview that they are being closely monitored by local police and that cameras have been installed outside their homes.
Tang Xuecheng, an entrepreneur in his 40s who had gone to Beijing to protest the government's seizure of his mining company, was detained by local officials and sent to a "mental hospital for mental health assessment," according to a public security official in his home town in Chenzhou city in Hunan province. Tang was released several months later.
Zhong Ruihua, 62, and nine others from the industrial city of Liuzhou who tried to petition against property seizures were arrested and have been charged with disturbing the public order. Zhang Qiuping, Zhong Ruihua's youngest daughter, saw her mother for the first time since August on Feb. 23, during her trial.
"They put my mom under house arrest in different hotels for months and never showed us any official documents. . . . The prosecution said she was just having a 'study session.' What on earth is this kind of 'study session'? Which law says this is legal?" said Zhang, 28, a stay-at-home mother.
Ji -- one of a growing legion of "barefoot lawyers," activists who take on cases for disenfranchised citizens but who don't hold law degrees -- is the first of the would-be protesters to be convicted of criminal charges.
The fifth of eight children born to a farming couple in this city on the southern edge of Fujian province, near the Taiwan Strait, Ji had been a talented writer as a child but stopped attending school in junior high when the Cultural Revolution began.
He later took jobs as a coal miner, a carpenter, a factory worker and, eventually, as China began capitalist-style economic reforms, a business development and marketing manager for a locally owned government enterprise. He never married or had children, preferring instead to devote his free time to his studies. He finished the Chinese equivalent of a GED and then a self-study college degree.
Ji became obsessed with the public library in Fuzhou, the capital of Fujian province. He would spend hours there reading about political theory, justice and the law. Ji was a strong believer in the ideals of Mao Zedong and communism, and he had become angry that this dream was being corrupted by unscrupulous public officials who were stealing from the public.
But at his core, Ji was an optimist and believed that change was possible from within the system. He decided he would learn the letter of the law so that he could help laobaixing, or ordinary people, deal with their grievances. He took on cases for free and lived on 3 yuan, less than 50 cents, a day.
Starting in 2000, he began to gain fame in his area after he won case after case against officials who had illegally detained citizens, mafialike gangs that tried to pressure villagers to leave their land and a mining and steel factory that was polluting the local environment.
He was so successful that his family became worried that his freelance legal work would eventually land him in jail if he crossed the wrong person. "I would tell him to stop what he's doing. I said, 'You don't even have a lawyer's certificate,' " his sister said. She said his biggest weakness as a legal advocate was the very thing that drove him: his faith in the rule of law.
When Ji went to Beijing in August armed with carefully prepared documents about a dozen local cases -- including one about a man who died in detention and others about illegal land seizures -- he was convinced that because China had passed a law allowing him to file a protest application, nothing bad could come of it.
He had recently been evicted from his home office in Fuzhou on suspicion of trying to incite people to petition in Beijing, friends said, but even then he didn't waver from his conviction that China's central government would keep its promises to allow public dissent during the Games, according to his sisters and friends.
On the way to the government offices in Beijing, Ji ran into a man named Tang Xuecheng on the bus. Tang said he was a businessman and had been having trouble with corrupt officials in his home town and was also going to hand in a protest application. They exchanged contact information and split up to check in at their respective hotels. Ji said Tang called him shortly afterward, saying that he had been arrested and to stay away from the public security bureau. Instead, Ji repeatedly went there to try to get authorities to accept his protest application and to demand that Tang be released, his lawyer said. On his third visit, on Aug. 11, Ji was intercepted by a delegation of government and security officials from Fujian province who told him to "stop making trouble and go back." Authorities sent him to Zhangzhou, where he had grown up, and then to Fuzhou, where he was put under house arrest. After one month in custody, he was formally charged with forging official documents and seals.
Since word of Ji's arrest leaked out, people whom he defended have rallied together to raise the equivalent of about $515 to pay some of his legal fees.
Lin Lanying, a 58-year-old grocery store owner who knows Ji from the work he did on a compensation case following a traffic accident, said police came to her home in mid-September to look at documents and other belongings that Ji had left for safekeeping when he went to Beijing. She said she felt they were hunting around for something, anything they could use to charge him with a crime.
"He definitely never broke the law. He is not guilty. It's pure retaliation," Lin said.
In a letter Ji wrote to his family in February from the No. 2 Detention House in Fuzhou, he said that despite his predicament, he has not lost faith in China's legal system.
"Everything is fine here, please don't worry! Please believe that I only have done good rather than brought harm to our people and country. I will win the lawsuit in the end," Ji wrote.
His sister Ji Qiaozhuang said she has been surprised and disappointed by how he has been treated because he has never advocated controversial positions such as the end of one-party rule.
"He's not a revolutionary, a young man with anti-government feelings," she said. "He's an old man who just wants to help others. China needs people like him to progress."
Researchers Liu Liu and Wang Juan in Beijing contributed to this report.
Nation Had Promised Outlet During Games
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, March 11, 2009; A01
ZHANGZHOU, China -- When Ji Sizun heard that the Chinese government had agreed to create three special zones in Beijing for peaceful public protests during the 2008 Summer Olympics, he celebrated. He said in an interview at the time that he believed the offer was sincere and represented the beginning of a new era for human rights in China.
Ji, 59, a self-taught legal advocate who had spent 10 years fighting against corrupt officials in his home province of Fujian on China's southeastern coast, immediately packed his bags and was one of the first in line in Beijing to file his application to protest.
It is now clear that his hope was misplaced.
In the end, official reports show, China never approved a single protest application -- despite its repeated pledges to improve its human rights record when it won the bid to host the Games. Some would-be applicants were taken away by force by security officials and held in hotels to prevent them from filing the paperwork. Others were scared away by warnings that they could face "difficulties" if they went through with their applications.
Ji has spent the past eight months in various states of arrest and detention. In January, he was sentenced to three years in prison, the maximum penalty allowed, on charges of faking official seals on documents he filed on behalf of his clients. Ji is appealing.
His relatives and human rights groups argue that the entire court case was a farce -- a punishment for Ji's refusal to back down during the Olympics.
"It wasn't fair to arrest him like this. All he did was to help ordinary people get their voices heard. For that they threw some fake accusations at him," said his sister Ji Xiuzhuang, 63.
Only 77 applications were officially filed. Even so, all but three were subsequently withdrawn, the state-run New China News Agency said, after authorities "satisfactorily addressed" petitioners' concerns. Of the rest, two were rejected because the applicants did not provide adequate information, and the last because it violated China's laws on demonstrations.
Since the Games in August, the situation for the Chinese citizens who had tried to apply for the Olympics permits has worsened, and some of the more outspoken applicants, such as Ji, have been harassed or detained.
Two women from Beijing in their late 70s, Wu Dianyuan and Wang Xiuying, were sentenced to a year of reeducation in a labor camp for protesting their forced eviction from their homes in 2001; the sentence was reduced and later rescinded, but the women said in an interview that they are being closely monitored by local police and that cameras have been installed outside their homes.
Tang Xuecheng, an entrepreneur in his 40s who had gone to Beijing to protest the government's seizure of his mining company, was detained by local officials and sent to a "mental hospital for mental health assessment," according to a public security official in his home town in Chenzhou city in Hunan province. Tang was released several months later.
Zhong Ruihua, 62, and nine others from the industrial city of Liuzhou who tried to petition against property seizures were arrested and have been charged with disturbing the public order. Zhang Qiuping, Zhong Ruihua's youngest daughter, saw her mother for the first time since August on Feb. 23, during her trial.
"They put my mom under house arrest in different hotels for months and never showed us any official documents. . . . The prosecution said she was just having a 'study session.' What on earth is this kind of 'study session'? Which law says this is legal?" said Zhang, 28, a stay-at-home mother.
Ji -- one of a growing legion of "barefoot lawyers," activists who take on cases for disenfranchised citizens but who don't hold law degrees -- is the first of the would-be protesters to be convicted of criminal charges.
The fifth of eight children born to a farming couple in this city on the southern edge of Fujian province, near the Taiwan Strait, Ji had been a talented writer as a child but stopped attending school in junior high when the Cultural Revolution began.
He later took jobs as a coal miner, a carpenter, a factory worker and, eventually, as China began capitalist-style economic reforms, a business development and marketing manager for a locally owned government enterprise. He never married or had children, preferring instead to devote his free time to his studies. He finished the Chinese equivalent of a GED and then a self-study college degree.
Ji became obsessed with the public library in Fuzhou, the capital of Fujian province. He would spend hours there reading about political theory, justice and the law. Ji was a strong believer in the ideals of Mao Zedong and communism, and he had become angry that this dream was being corrupted by unscrupulous public officials who were stealing from the public.
But at his core, Ji was an optimist and believed that change was possible from within the system. He decided he would learn the letter of the law so that he could help laobaixing, or ordinary people, deal with their grievances. He took on cases for free and lived on 3 yuan, less than 50 cents, a day.
Starting in 2000, he began to gain fame in his area after he won case after case against officials who had illegally detained citizens, mafialike gangs that tried to pressure villagers to leave their land and a mining and steel factory that was polluting the local environment.
He was so successful that his family became worried that his freelance legal work would eventually land him in jail if he crossed the wrong person. "I would tell him to stop what he's doing. I said, 'You don't even have a lawyer's certificate,' " his sister said. She said his biggest weakness as a legal advocate was the very thing that drove him: his faith in the rule of law.
When Ji went to Beijing in August armed with carefully prepared documents about a dozen local cases -- including one about a man who died in detention and others about illegal land seizures -- he was convinced that because China had passed a law allowing him to file a protest application, nothing bad could come of it.
He had recently been evicted from his home office in Fuzhou on suspicion of trying to incite people to petition in Beijing, friends said, but even then he didn't waver from his conviction that China's central government would keep its promises to allow public dissent during the Games, according to his sisters and friends.
On the way to the government offices in Beijing, Ji ran into a man named Tang Xuecheng on the bus. Tang said he was a businessman and had been having trouble with corrupt officials in his home town and was also going to hand in a protest application. They exchanged contact information and split up to check in at their respective hotels. Ji said Tang called him shortly afterward, saying that he had been arrested and to stay away from the public security bureau. Instead, Ji repeatedly went there to try to get authorities to accept his protest application and to demand that Tang be released, his lawyer said. On his third visit, on Aug. 11, Ji was intercepted by a delegation of government and security officials from Fujian province who told him to "stop making trouble and go back." Authorities sent him to Zhangzhou, where he had grown up, and then to Fuzhou, where he was put under house arrest. After one month in custody, he was formally charged with forging official documents and seals.
Since word of Ji's arrest leaked out, people whom he defended have rallied together to raise the equivalent of about $515 to pay some of his legal fees.
Lin Lanying, a 58-year-old grocery store owner who knows Ji from the work he did on a compensation case following a traffic accident, said police came to her home in mid-September to look at documents and other belongings that Ji had left for safekeeping when he went to Beijing. She said she felt they were hunting around for something, anything they could use to charge him with a crime.
"He definitely never broke the law. He is not guilty. It's pure retaliation," Lin said.
In a letter Ji wrote to his family in February from the No. 2 Detention House in Fuzhou, he said that despite his predicament, he has not lost faith in China's legal system.
"Everything is fine here, please don't worry! Please believe that I only have done good rather than brought harm to our people and country. I will win the lawsuit in the end," Ji wrote.
His sister Ji Qiaozhuang said she has been surprised and disappointed by how he has been treated because he has never advocated controversial positions such as the end of one-party rule.
"He's not a revolutionary, a young man with anti-government feelings," she said. "He's an old man who just wants to help others. China needs people like him to progress."
Researchers Liu Liu and Wang Juan in Beijing contributed to this report.
2009年3月10日星期二
Tibetan Ire: Mining
A Focus of Tibetan Ire: Mining
As China Seeks to Suppress Unrest, Industry Fuels Additional Anger
By Maureen Fan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 10, 2009; A07
GANGCHA, China -- Sonam Dorje and his family live on a grassy slope a mile above one of the entrances to the Xiekeng Copper & Gold Mine, which he and his neighbors in this Tibetan area blame for killing their livestock and reducing the amount of pasture available for grazing.
Their sheep die when they drink tainted water flowing from the mine, or lick crushed ore left on the hillside, villagers say. Now there are reports that the mine will open another cave this year in the upper grassland above Dorje's home.
"We are trying to think of every possible way to stop this. If we have to, we will carry stones and wood sticks to block the entrance as soon as they begin to dig again," he said.
The Chinese government is on high alert this week, bracing for the possibility of protests as Tibetans mark the 50th anniversary of a failed uprising. Communist Party officials have left nothing to chance, deploying paramilitary troops and plainclothes security, shutting down the Internet and text-messaging services, and stepping up propaganda against the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader they brand a dangerous separatist. Last year at this time, monks in Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region, staged protests that prompted a crackdown. More than 200 people were killed.
But as the government focuses on suppressing political dissent this week, Tibetans are struggling with the economic conditions that help fuel their anger. Mining operations in Tibet and other nearby areas have been booming since the arrival of the Qinghai-Tibet rail line in 2006, bringing wealth to local governments and Chinese mine owners. But they have provided little benefit to local Tibetan farmers and nomads who say the mines scar mountains they consider sacred and kill the yaks and sheep they need in order to make a living. Protests by Tibetans against China's billion-dollar mining industry are expected to rise as mines closed for the winter begin to reopen as early as next week.
"Last year, eight of my yaks died. They just fell down, foaming at the mouth," said Gompo Dondrup, a nomad and farmer in Bathang county in western Sichuan province, whose family has lost more than 60 percent of its herd. "At first we didn't know why. Later, the veterinarians told us it was because of the mine. We protested, but the mine continues to operate. They said they gave compensation to the government, but the government never gave us any."
Chinese officials argue that they are bringing development and prosperity to regions that badly need the investment. They have also been quick to accuse mine protesters of political motivations and separatist aspirations, allegations that are sometimes used to justify tighter restrictions.
"Yes we blocked the road and smashed some machines, but we did those things not to split the country but to stop the mine," said Aben, 34, a nomad who said he participated in three or four protests against a silver, lead and zinc mine that began formal production in Bathang county's Chaluo township last year.
Aben, who like some Tibetans uses only one name, said he was unafraid of speaking out because many hundreds of people had protested. "If there are only dozens of us, we dare not go," he said. "We hoped the government would develop tourism, but if the mine is in operation, who will come here?"
The mine does have its local supporters. "The government welcomes mining. Workers come with the mines and they will buy local goods, so the local economy will benefit," said Sun Kangjing, a Tibetan who is employed by nearby Cuola town.
Chen Shaohua, chief of office for the Xiasai Silver Co. Ltd, the owner of the controversial mine in Bathang county, said the company had already paid $1.5 million in environmental compensation and was feeling squeezed by lower market prices for ore. He said that local Tibetans steal equipment such as electrical cable and that even those who live far from the site continue to demand money from the mine.
"The more we produce, the more we lose. We already paid compensation to the local government. But as far as whether they paid the local Tibetans, we don't know," Chen said.
A $50 million, seven-year government survey of the Tibetan plateau released in 2007 found as much as 40 million tons of copper reserves, 40 million tons of zinc and lead reserves, and more than 1 billion tons of iron reserves. Over the next several years, officials expect mining revenue in Tibet alone to reach $1.5 billion, or one-third of the autonomous region's gross domestic product. Last month, Qinghai province announced a new round of geological surveys that will cost $100 million and that are aimed at making more mining discoveries. In a sign of their nervousness about potential unrest, officials in recent years have instituted new rules aimed at banning freelance gold mining operations and have ordered mine owners to properly dispose of their waste or pay huge fines. But there is little sign that the rules are properly enforced or that the money is used to undo the damage.
"Conflicts over mining are growing," said Luo Li, an economics professor at Minzu University who has studied Sichuan's Ganzi prefecture, where there are at least 90 mines in operation, accounting for 30 percent of the prefecture's GDP. "Generally speaking, ordinary people aren't consulted about mine projects in their area. It's mainly the local government's business."
Researcher Zhang Jie contributed to this report.
As China Seeks to Suppress Unrest, Industry Fuels Additional Anger
By Maureen Fan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 10, 2009; A07
GANGCHA, China -- Sonam Dorje and his family live on a grassy slope a mile above one of the entrances to the Xiekeng Copper & Gold Mine, which he and his neighbors in this Tibetan area blame for killing their livestock and reducing the amount of pasture available for grazing.
Their sheep die when they drink tainted water flowing from the mine, or lick crushed ore left on the hillside, villagers say. Now there are reports that the mine will open another cave this year in the upper grassland above Dorje's home.
"We are trying to think of every possible way to stop this. If we have to, we will carry stones and wood sticks to block the entrance as soon as they begin to dig again," he said.
The Chinese government is on high alert this week, bracing for the possibility of protests as Tibetans mark the 50th anniversary of a failed uprising. Communist Party officials have left nothing to chance, deploying paramilitary troops and plainclothes security, shutting down the Internet and text-messaging services, and stepping up propaganda against the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader they brand a dangerous separatist. Last year at this time, monks in Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region, staged protests that prompted a crackdown. More than 200 people were killed.
But as the government focuses on suppressing political dissent this week, Tibetans are struggling with the economic conditions that help fuel their anger. Mining operations in Tibet and other nearby areas have been booming since the arrival of the Qinghai-Tibet rail line in 2006, bringing wealth to local governments and Chinese mine owners. But they have provided little benefit to local Tibetan farmers and nomads who say the mines scar mountains they consider sacred and kill the yaks and sheep they need in order to make a living. Protests by Tibetans against China's billion-dollar mining industry are expected to rise as mines closed for the winter begin to reopen as early as next week.
"Last year, eight of my yaks died. They just fell down, foaming at the mouth," said Gompo Dondrup, a nomad and farmer in Bathang county in western Sichuan province, whose family has lost more than 60 percent of its herd. "At first we didn't know why. Later, the veterinarians told us it was because of the mine. We protested, but the mine continues to operate. They said they gave compensation to the government, but the government never gave us any."
Chinese officials argue that they are bringing development and prosperity to regions that badly need the investment. They have also been quick to accuse mine protesters of political motivations and separatist aspirations, allegations that are sometimes used to justify tighter restrictions.
"Yes we blocked the road and smashed some machines, but we did those things not to split the country but to stop the mine," said Aben, 34, a nomad who said he participated in three or four protests against a silver, lead and zinc mine that began formal production in Bathang county's Chaluo township last year.
Aben, who like some Tibetans uses only one name, said he was unafraid of speaking out because many hundreds of people had protested. "If there are only dozens of us, we dare not go," he said. "We hoped the government would develop tourism, but if the mine is in operation, who will come here?"
The mine does have its local supporters. "The government welcomes mining. Workers come with the mines and they will buy local goods, so the local economy will benefit," said Sun Kangjing, a Tibetan who is employed by nearby Cuola town.
Chen Shaohua, chief of office for the Xiasai Silver Co. Ltd, the owner of the controversial mine in Bathang county, said the company had already paid $1.5 million in environmental compensation and was feeling squeezed by lower market prices for ore. He said that local Tibetans steal equipment such as electrical cable and that even those who live far from the site continue to demand money from the mine.
"The more we produce, the more we lose. We already paid compensation to the local government. But as far as whether they paid the local Tibetans, we don't know," Chen said.
A $50 million, seven-year government survey of the Tibetan plateau released in 2007 found as much as 40 million tons of copper reserves, 40 million tons of zinc and lead reserves, and more than 1 billion tons of iron reserves. Over the next several years, officials expect mining revenue in Tibet alone to reach $1.5 billion, or one-third of the autonomous region's gross domestic product. Last month, Qinghai province announced a new round of geological surveys that will cost $100 million and that are aimed at making more mining discoveries. In a sign of their nervousness about potential unrest, officials in recent years have instituted new rules aimed at banning freelance gold mining operations and have ordered mine owners to properly dispose of their waste or pay huge fines. But there is little sign that the rules are properly enforced or that the money is used to undo the damage.
"Conflicts over mining are growing," said Luo Li, an economics professor at Minzu University who has studied Sichuan's Ganzi prefecture, where there are at least 90 mines in operation, accounting for 30 percent of the prefecture's GDP. "Generally speaking, ordinary people aren't consulted about mine projects in their area. It's mainly the local government's business."
Researcher Zhang Jie contributed to this report.
2009年3月9日星期一
Chinese Land in Secret Jails
March 9, 2009
Seeking Justice
By ANDREW JACOBS
BEIJING — They are often tucked away in the rough-and-tumble sections of the city’s south side, hidden beneath dingy hotels and guarded by men in dark coats. Known as “black houses,” they are unofficial jails for the pesky hordes of petitioners who flock to the capital seeking justice.
This month, Wang Shixiang, a 48-year-old businessman from Heilongjong Province, came to Beijing to agitate for the prosecution of corrupt policemen. Instead, he was seized and confined to a dank room underneath the Juyuan Hotel with 40 other abducted petitioners.
During his two days in captivity, Mr. Wang said, he was beaten and deprived of food, and then bundled onto an overnight train. Guards who were paid with government money, he said, made sure he arrived at his front door.
As Beijing hosts 10 days of political pageantry known as the National People’s Congress, tens of thousands of desperate citizens are trying to seek redress by lodging formal complaints at petition offices. A few, when hope is lost, go to extremes, as a couple from the Xinjiang region did last week: they set their car afire on the city’s best-known shopping street, injuring themselves critically.
In his annual report to the legislature on Thursday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said China should use its petition system to head off social unrest in the face of a worsening economy. “We should improve the mechanism to resolve social conflicts, and guide the public to express their requests and interests through legal channels,” he said.
According to the state media, 10 million petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as illegal land seizures and unpaid wages. The numbers would be far higher but for the black houses, also called black jails, the newest weapon local officials use to prevent these aggrieved citizens from embarrassing them in front of central government superiors. Officially, these jails do not exist.
In China’s authoritarian state, senior officials tally petitions to get a rough sense of social order around the country. A successfully filed petition — however illusory the prospect of justice — is considered a black mark on the bureaucratic record of the local officials accused of wrongdoing.
So the game, sometimes deadly, is to prevent a filing. The cat-and-mouse contest has created a sizable underground economy that enriches the interceptors, the police and those who run the city’s ad hoc detention centers.
Human rights activists and petitioners say plainclothes security officers and hired thugs grab the aggrieved off the streets and hide them in a growing constellation of unmarked detention centers. There, the activists say, the aggrieved will be insulted, roughed up and then escorted back to their home provinces. Some are held for weeks and months without charge, activists say, and in a few cases, the beatings are fatal.
The police in Beijing have done little to prevent such abuses. They are regularly accused of turning a blind eye or even helping local thugs round up petitioners. That raises suspicions that the central government is not especially upset about efforts to undermine the integrity of the petition system.
The petition system provides people with the semblance of an appeals process that top leaders hope will keep them off the streets. But for officials at all levels, it seems, the appearance of order — measured by reducing the number of petitions — is an acceptable approximation of actual order.
Rights advocates say that black houses have sprouted in recent years partly because top leaders have put more pressure on local leaders to reduce the number of petitioners reaching Beijing. Two of the largest holding pens, Majialou and Jiujingzhuang, can handle thousands of detainees who are funneled to the smaller detention centers, where cellphones and identification cards are confiscated.
China’s petition system originated in the Ming Dynasty, from the 14th to the 17th centuries A.D., when commoners wronged by local officials sought the intervention of the imperial court. Since the Communist Party came to power, the right to petition the central government has been enshrined in the Constitution.
With few legal channels available, petitioners come to Beijing, saying it is their only hope for resolving grievances.
“I know my life is in danger, but I just can’t swallow this injustice,” said Mr. Wang, explaining why he has made 10 trips to Beijing in recent years, each ending in detention.
Chinese Human Rights Defenders, an organization in Hong Kong that recently interviewed more than 3,000 petitioners, has documented what it says is the lucrative business of abduction and repatriation. “When you’re taken to a black jail, no one knows where you are and you are totally vulnerable,” said Wang Songlian, a researcher.
The authorities deny such a system exists. During testimony to the United Nations Rights Council last month, Song Hansong, a representative of China’s Supreme People’s Procurate, said, “There are no such things as black jails in our country.”
But over the past year, rights workers have been gathering evidence of what they say is an underground network of jails, first established in 2005, that was aggressively expanded in the months before the Olympics.
Alarmed by their unchecked spread, a group of lawyers has taken to organizing citizen raids that seek to free detainees through a show of force. Although they say instances of extralegal detention dropped after the Summer Games, one of the lawyers, Xu Zhiyong, said they rose sharply in recent days, coinciding with the start of the annual legislative session.
He and other advocates say that armies of paid interceptors have been roaming the city in pursuit of as many as 40,000 petitioners, many of whom have swarmed the entrances to the city’s main petition centers.
By Friday, however, the tough-looking throngs of interceptors outside the State Council and supreme court petition offices appeared to outnumber would-be petitioners, whose worn shoes and sacks of paperwork make them easy to recognize.
Wu Lijuan, a seasoned petitioner from Hubei Province, said she helped coordinate over 10,000 former bank employees who came to Beijing from across the nation last week. She said most of the petitioners, middle-aged women seeking more compensation for their dismissals, were rounded up outside the main petition office and put on buses.
Those who escape the dragnets are often betrayed by employees at the very offices set up to process petitions. Sun Lixiu, 51, a farmer from Sichuan Province, said a clerk at the State Council petition office asked for her ID card, handed back an application form and then tipped off interceptors, who took her to a black jail, where she was held for a day.
“No one can be trusted,” said Ms. Sun, who is seeking to free her husband from the local police station, where he has been held since July, after accusing town officials of embezzlement.
On Sunday, Ms. Sun was seized again and taken to another black jail. She was still being held on Monday, according to a friend to whom she sent a text message.
The financial rewards for apprehending petitioners can be irresistible. According to a directive obtained by Chinese Human Rights Defenders, the police in one Hunan Province county are authorized to pay nearly $300 for each petitioner who is detained.
The money ends up in the pockets of the interceptors, corrupt petition clerks and those who run the black jails. The organization said that officers in one Beijing police precinct demanded as much as $140 for each petitioner they turned over to provincial interceptors.
The story of Wu Bowen, 61, a retired shop clerk from Zhejiang Province, is typical. On Feb. 25 she came to the capital to file a petition seeking more compensation for the demolition of her home. The next day, as she sat on the curb, a policeman told her that as an out-of-towner, she had to register at the precinct.
Once there, however, the officer called the Zhejiang Province liaison office in Beijing. Soon after, a clutch of interceptors led her to a hotel not far from the city’s main tourist attractions.
After nine days of confinement, Ms. Wu stole back her cellphone and revealed the hotel’s address to her son, who called the offices of The New York Times.
When three men reluctantly opened the door to Room 208 at the Zhanle Hotel, Ms. Wu cried out for help. Confounded by the presence of foreign journalists, the men seemed unable to prevent Ms. Wu from escaping, although they begged her to stay, saying she could not leave until a local county official arrived with their reward money.
Out on the street, Ms. Wu was shaken but undeterred. Asked if she wanted to be taken to the train station so she could return home, she shook her head. “No,” she said. “I’m going to stay in Beijing until I get justice.”
Jonathan Ansfield contributed reporting.
Seeking Justice
By ANDREW JACOBS
BEIJING — They are often tucked away in the rough-and-tumble sections of the city’s south side, hidden beneath dingy hotels and guarded by men in dark coats. Known as “black houses,” they are unofficial jails for the pesky hordes of petitioners who flock to the capital seeking justice.
This month, Wang Shixiang, a 48-year-old businessman from Heilongjong Province, came to Beijing to agitate for the prosecution of corrupt policemen. Instead, he was seized and confined to a dank room underneath the Juyuan Hotel with 40 other abducted petitioners.
During his two days in captivity, Mr. Wang said, he was beaten and deprived of food, and then bundled onto an overnight train. Guards who were paid with government money, he said, made sure he arrived at his front door.
As Beijing hosts 10 days of political pageantry known as the National People’s Congress, tens of thousands of desperate citizens are trying to seek redress by lodging formal complaints at petition offices. A few, when hope is lost, go to extremes, as a couple from the Xinjiang region did last week: they set their car afire on the city’s best-known shopping street, injuring themselves critically.
In his annual report to the legislature on Thursday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said China should use its petition system to head off social unrest in the face of a worsening economy. “We should improve the mechanism to resolve social conflicts, and guide the public to express their requests and interests through legal channels,” he said.
According to the state media, 10 million petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as illegal land seizures and unpaid wages. The numbers would be far higher but for the black houses, also called black jails, the newest weapon local officials use to prevent these aggrieved citizens from embarrassing them in front of central government superiors. Officially, these jails do not exist.
In China’s authoritarian state, senior officials tally petitions to get a rough sense of social order around the country. A successfully filed petition — however illusory the prospect of justice — is considered a black mark on the bureaucratic record of the local officials accused of wrongdoing.
So the game, sometimes deadly, is to prevent a filing. The cat-and-mouse contest has created a sizable underground economy that enriches the interceptors, the police and those who run the city’s ad hoc detention centers.
Human rights activists and petitioners say plainclothes security officers and hired thugs grab the aggrieved off the streets and hide them in a growing constellation of unmarked detention centers. There, the activists say, the aggrieved will be insulted, roughed up and then escorted back to their home provinces. Some are held for weeks and months without charge, activists say, and in a few cases, the beatings are fatal.
The police in Beijing have done little to prevent such abuses. They are regularly accused of turning a blind eye or even helping local thugs round up petitioners. That raises suspicions that the central government is not especially upset about efforts to undermine the integrity of the petition system.
The petition system provides people with the semblance of an appeals process that top leaders hope will keep them off the streets. But for officials at all levels, it seems, the appearance of order — measured by reducing the number of petitions — is an acceptable approximation of actual order.
Rights advocates say that black houses have sprouted in recent years partly because top leaders have put more pressure on local leaders to reduce the number of petitioners reaching Beijing. Two of the largest holding pens, Majialou and Jiujingzhuang, can handle thousands of detainees who are funneled to the smaller detention centers, where cellphones and identification cards are confiscated.
China’s petition system originated in the Ming Dynasty, from the 14th to the 17th centuries A.D., when commoners wronged by local officials sought the intervention of the imperial court. Since the Communist Party came to power, the right to petition the central government has been enshrined in the Constitution.
With few legal channels available, petitioners come to Beijing, saying it is their only hope for resolving grievances.
“I know my life is in danger, but I just can’t swallow this injustice,” said Mr. Wang, explaining why he has made 10 trips to Beijing in recent years, each ending in detention.
Chinese Human Rights Defenders, an organization in Hong Kong that recently interviewed more than 3,000 petitioners, has documented what it says is the lucrative business of abduction and repatriation. “When you’re taken to a black jail, no one knows where you are and you are totally vulnerable,” said Wang Songlian, a researcher.
The authorities deny such a system exists. During testimony to the United Nations Rights Council last month, Song Hansong, a representative of China’s Supreme People’s Procurate, said, “There are no such things as black jails in our country.”
But over the past year, rights workers have been gathering evidence of what they say is an underground network of jails, first established in 2005, that was aggressively expanded in the months before the Olympics.
Alarmed by their unchecked spread, a group of lawyers has taken to organizing citizen raids that seek to free detainees through a show of force. Although they say instances of extralegal detention dropped after the Summer Games, one of the lawyers, Xu Zhiyong, said they rose sharply in recent days, coinciding with the start of the annual legislative session.
He and other advocates say that armies of paid interceptors have been roaming the city in pursuit of as many as 40,000 petitioners, many of whom have swarmed the entrances to the city’s main petition centers.
By Friday, however, the tough-looking throngs of interceptors outside the State Council and supreme court petition offices appeared to outnumber would-be petitioners, whose worn shoes and sacks of paperwork make them easy to recognize.
Wu Lijuan, a seasoned petitioner from Hubei Province, said she helped coordinate over 10,000 former bank employees who came to Beijing from across the nation last week. She said most of the petitioners, middle-aged women seeking more compensation for their dismissals, were rounded up outside the main petition office and put on buses.
Those who escape the dragnets are often betrayed by employees at the very offices set up to process petitions. Sun Lixiu, 51, a farmer from Sichuan Province, said a clerk at the State Council petition office asked for her ID card, handed back an application form and then tipped off interceptors, who took her to a black jail, where she was held for a day.
“No one can be trusted,” said Ms. Sun, who is seeking to free her husband from the local police station, where he has been held since July, after accusing town officials of embezzlement.
On Sunday, Ms. Sun was seized again and taken to another black jail. She was still being held on Monday, according to a friend to whom she sent a text message.
The financial rewards for apprehending petitioners can be irresistible. According to a directive obtained by Chinese Human Rights Defenders, the police in one Hunan Province county are authorized to pay nearly $300 for each petitioner who is detained.
The money ends up in the pockets of the interceptors, corrupt petition clerks and those who run the black jails. The organization said that officers in one Beijing police precinct demanded as much as $140 for each petitioner they turned over to provincial interceptors.
The story of Wu Bowen, 61, a retired shop clerk from Zhejiang Province, is typical. On Feb. 25 she came to the capital to file a petition seeking more compensation for the demolition of her home. The next day, as she sat on the curb, a policeman told her that as an out-of-towner, she had to register at the precinct.
Once there, however, the officer called the Zhejiang Province liaison office in Beijing. Soon after, a clutch of interceptors led her to a hotel not far from the city’s main tourist attractions.
After nine days of confinement, Ms. Wu stole back her cellphone and revealed the hotel’s address to her son, who called the offices of The New York Times.
When three men reluctantly opened the door to Room 208 at the Zhanle Hotel, Ms. Wu cried out for help. Confounded by the presence of foreign journalists, the men seemed unable to prevent Ms. Wu from escaping, although they begged her to stay, saying she could not leave until a local county official arrived with their reward money.
Out on the street, Ms. Wu was shaken but undeterred. Asked if she wanted to be taken to the train station so she could return home, she shook her head. “No,” she said. “I’m going to stay in Beijing until I get justice.”
Jonathan Ansfield contributed reporting.
2009年3月7日星期六
IBM in Layoff Crosshairs
Friday, March 06, 2009
Is IBM deliberately scaling back American jobs for foreign ones? Is Big Blue trying to keep news of layoffs out of the press and away from stockholders who might look to invest elsewhere?
For a number of reasons, one arguably being to keep IBM's stock a consistent darling of the market, it appears IBM is in a bit of a public relations pickle with how it is handling layoffs and how it may be trying to weasel around the notification laws regarding employees by doing layoffs in dribs and drabs instead of all at once.
It doesn't help that the day after reporting strong quarterly earnings on Jan. 20, IBM's CEO Sam Palmisano publicly said that while other companies are making cuts, IBM would "invest in its people," and yet the very next day layoffs were announced. Weeks after the earnings call, the company has eliminated or will be eliminating nearly 4,600 jobs in North America. That's not a number easily dismissed as normal cost-cutting activity.
Here is some background information from the New York Times article about the WARN Act, which dictates the rules of communication of layoffs to employees:
The notification law, known as the WARN Act, is a legacy of an era when the economy was more dependent on manufacturers and legislators were concerned about blue-collar workers being locked out of their factory. That kind of shutdown is hard to hide, while white-collar layoffs spread across many locations are not.
The WARN Act requires 60 days' notice, but the events that require notification are site-specific -- a plant closing, a layoff of 500 or more people at one location, or a cut of at least one-third of the work force at a site.
If notification is not required, the standard practice at large companies is to give 30 days' notice before a layoff. Some states have passed their own WARN Acts to cover more layoffs. California, for example, now requires a WARN notice when a company cuts 50 or more workers in one place. Last month, New York enacted a law requiring 90 days' notice when laying off 250 or more workers at a site.
IBM isn't alone in this layoff predicament. Many companies, technology or otherwise, try and avoid press that can be construed as negative when it comes to labor relations and the elimination of jobs.
But if the CEO is going to tell investors one thing, then take actions that show the opposite, it's no surprise that the spotlight is on the company right now, and perhaps IBM needs to spend some more time explaining its strategy. I imagine stockholders want a better understanding of what is going on here, as do employees who feel the company may be taking advantage of a downturn to boost numbers for the year.
Is IBM deliberately scaling back American jobs for foreign ones? Is Big Blue trying to keep news of layoffs out of the press and away from stockholders who might look to invest elsewhere?
For a number of reasons, one arguably being to keep IBM's stock a consistent darling of the market, it appears IBM is in a bit of a public relations pickle with how it is handling layoffs and how it may be trying to weasel around the notification laws regarding employees by doing layoffs in dribs and drabs instead of all at once.
It doesn't help that the day after reporting strong quarterly earnings on Jan. 20, IBM's CEO Sam Palmisano publicly said that while other companies are making cuts, IBM would "invest in its people," and yet the very next day layoffs were announced. Weeks after the earnings call, the company has eliminated or will be eliminating nearly 4,600 jobs in North America. That's not a number easily dismissed as normal cost-cutting activity.
Here is some background information from the New York Times article about the WARN Act, which dictates the rules of communication of layoffs to employees:
The notification law, known as the WARN Act, is a legacy of an era when the economy was more dependent on manufacturers and legislators were concerned about blue-collar workers being locked out of their factory. That kind of shutdown is hard to hide, while white-collar layoffs spread across many locations are not.
The WARN Act requires 60 days' notice, but the events that require notification are site-specific -- a plant closing, a layoff of 500 or more people at one location, or a cut of at least one-third of the work force at a site.
If notification is not required, the standard practice at large companies is to give 30 days' notice before a layoff. Some states have passed their own WARN Acts to cover more layoffs. California, for example, now requires a WARN notice when a company cuts 50 or more workers in one place. Last month, New York enacted a law requiring 90 days' notice when laying off 250 or more workers at a site.
IBM isn't alone in this layoff predicament. Many companies, technology or otherwise, try and avoid press that can be construed as negative when it comes to labor relations and the elimination of jobs.
But if the CEO is going to tell investors one thing, then take actions that show the opposite, it's no surprise that the spotlight is on the company right now, and perhaps IBM needs to spend some more time explaining its strategy. I imagine stockholders want a better understanding of what is going on here, as do employees who feel the company may be taking advantage of a downturn to boost numbers for the year.
2009年3月6日星期五
Unemployment rate surged to 8.1%
March 7, 2009
651,000 Jobs Reported Lost in February
By JACK HEALY
Another 651,000 jobs were lost in February, adding to the millions of people who have been thrown out of work as the economic downturn deepens.
In a stark measure of the recession’s toll, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the national unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent last month, its highest in 25 years. The economy has now shed more than 4.4 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
And economists expect that unemployment will continue to rise for the rest of the year and into early 2010, with the unemployment rate reaching 9 to 10 percent by the time a recovery begins. But even then, with so many job losses centered in manufacturing, economists say that many positions devoured during this recession will not be coming back.
“This is not people being on furlough for six weeks or a month or two — this is permanent job losses, and that is what makes this so difficult,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. “That is very telling in terms of how we’re really restructuring the overall economy.”
Although the tally of February’s losses was grim, the 651,000 jobs lost last month were actually fewer than the number in each of the past two months, according to revisions reported Friday. Some 655,000 jobs were lost in January, when the unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent. December’s decline was revised to 681,000, from 577,000.
On Wall Street, financial markets seemed to seize on the fact that monthly job losses had not increased in February, and stocks rose in early trading, a day after plunging more than 4 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was up about 150 points in the first half-hour and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was 2.4 percent higher, but both were still hovering near their lowest levels since 1997.
February marked the fourth consecutive month that the economy has shed more than 500,000 jobs, a pace that underscores the magnitude of the problems facing the Obama administration as it promises to save or create 3.5 million jobs over the next two years.
Last month, President Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and emergency aid. The first tax credits, in the form of reduced payroll withholdings, are expected to appear on paychecks beginning April 1.
But in testimony this week before Congress, federal officials again cautioned that even with the stimulus spending, a recovery will take time.
The package “should provide a boost to demand and production over the next two years as well as mitigate the overall loss of employment and income,” the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, told the Senate Budget Committee, but the timing is “subject to considerable uncertainty.”
The pace of job losses has only increased since the credit crisis shook financial markets last autumn, spawning a vicious circle of economic contraction that dragged down corporate earnings, consumer spending and overall growth. And Mr. Bernanke said in testimony this week that the labor market “may have worsened further in recent weeks.”
“It just feels like we’re in the teeth of the recession, and the bite is still very hard,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial. “This is economy-wide, industry-wide. It just shows the severity and the breadth of the job losses.”
Economists worry that mounting job losses could make it harder for homeowners to make their mortgage payments, triggering another wave of home foreclosures, which would further depress home values and the mortgage-related securities owned by major banks.
“We’re feeling the negative fallout from the intensification of the financial crisis,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, said. “We’re in the middle of the worst stage of job losses as well as the speed of contraction of gross domestic product.”
Workers from New York to Florida, from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt, and across nearly every sector of the economy are being affected as employers reduce costs by slashing their payrolls and cutting their capital investment.
“There’s been no place to hide,” Mr. Hoffman said. “Everybody in every industry has lost jobs or is feeling insecure about whether they’re going to keep their jobs or how their company’s going to do.”
Retailers cut 39,500 jobs, and the construction industry cut 104,000 jobs as the housing market remained in the doldrums and home builders all but halted new-home construction.
Manufacturers alone slashed a seasonally adjusted 168,000 jobs in February, cutting payrolls in factories that produce machinery, electronics, furniture and metals.
In the New York region, the Federal Reserve’s beige book noted earlier this week, that hiring “has virtually ground to a halt since the beginning of the year, during what is usually a busy season,” with large financial firms having “all but stopped hiring.”
“Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the district report increasingly widespread cutbacks in their employment levels in February,” the report said of New York, “and a sizable proportion expect further retrenchment in the next six months.”
Mark Ortiz was one of those who joined the ranks of the unemployed in February. Mr. Ortiz lost his job at the art-framing company where he had worked for 11 years, most recently as the production manager.
“You spend all this time doing this, and now what?” he said. “It’s almost like I’ve gotten divorced and I’ve got to find a new wife.”
He has plastered his résumé across the Internet and searches for jobs every day from his home on Long Island, but his search for a good-paying job has been hampered by the fact that he went straight to work when he was younger, and never got a college degree.
“I was a guy who worked his whole life,” Mr. Ortiz said. “That was a major strike against me, a major strike.”
The jobless rate for people with a bachelor’s degree or beyond is 4.1 percent — its highest point in years, but still lower than the unemployment rate for people with less education. Of workers with only a high-school diploma, 8.3 percent were unemployed, and 12.6 percent of people who did not graduate from high school were unemployed.
Still, years of professional experience and multiple degrees, including one in law, have not sheltered people like Jeffrey Green, 53, of Placentia, Calif.
Mr. Green said he had sent out 1,000 résumés and posted his credentials on more than 100 job boards since he was laid off from his management position at a data-analysis firm in January. With no immediate prospects in sight, he is considering going to Japan to teach English, reprising his Japanese studies from his years as a college undergraduate.
“I’m just resigned,” he said. “I’m thinking, if I’m not going to make a lot of money I may as well have fun doing it.”
651,000 Jobs Reported Lost in February
By JACK HEALY
Another 651,000 jobs were lost in February, adding to the millions of people who have been thrown out of work as the economic downturn deepens.
In a stark measure of the recession’s toll, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the national unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent last month, its highest in 25 years. The economy has now shed more than 4.4 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
And economists expect that unemployment will continue to rise for the rest of the year and into early 2010, with the unemployment rate reaching 9 to 10 percent by the time a recovery begins. But even then, with so many job losses centered in manufacturing, economists say that many positions devoured during this recession will not be coming back.
“This is not people being on furlough for six weeks or a month or two — this is permanent job losses, and that is what makes this so difficult,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. “That is very telling in terms of how we’re really restructuring the overall economy.”
Although the tally of February’s losses was grim, the 651,000 jobs lost last month were actually fewer than the number in each of the past two months, according to revisions reported Friday. Some 655,000 jobs were lost in January, when the unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent. December’s decline was revised to 681,000, from 577,000.
On Wall Street, financial markets seemed to seize on the fact that monthly job losses had not increased in February, and stocks rose in early trading, a day after plunging more than 4 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was up about 150 points in the first half-hour and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was 2.4 percent higher, but both were still hovering near their lowest levels since 1997.
February marked the fourth consecutive month that the economy has shed more than 500,000 jobs, a pace that underscores the magnitude of the problems facing the Obama administration as it promises to save or create 3.5 million jobs over the next two years.
Last month, President Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and emergency aid. The first tax credits, in the form of reduced payroll withholdings, are expected to appear on paychecks beginning April 1.
But in testimony this week before Congress, federal officials again cautioned that even with the stimulus spending, a recovery will take time.
The package “should provide a boost to demand and production over the next two years as well as mitigate the overall loss of employment and income,” the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, told the Senate Budget Committee, but the timing is “subject to considerable uncertainty.”
The pace of job losses has only increased since the credit crisis shook financial markets last autumn, spawning a vicious circle of economic contraction that dragged down corporate earnings, consumer spending and overall growth. And Mr. Bernanke said in testimony this week that the labor market “may have worsened further in recent weeks.”
“It just feels like we’re in the teeth of the recession, and the bite is still very hard,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial. “This is economy-wide, industry-wide. It just shows the severity and the breadth of the job losses.”
Economists worry that mounting job losses could make it harder for homeowners to make their mortgage payments, triggering another wave of home foreclosures, which would further depress home values and the mortgage-related securities owned by major banks.
“We’re feeling the negative fallout from the intensification of the financial crisis,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, said. “We’re in the middle of the worst stage of job losses as well as the speed of contraction of gross domestic product.”
Workers from New York to Florida, from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt, and across nearly every sector of the economy are being affected as employers reduce costs by slashing their payrolls and cutting their capital investment.
“There’s been no place to hide,” Mr. Hoffman said. “Everybody in every industry has lost jobs or is feeling insecure about whether they’re going to keep their jobs or how their company’s going to do.”
Retailers cut 39,500 jobs, and the construction industry cut 104,000 jobs as the housing market remained in the doldrums and home builders all but halted new-home construction.
Manufacturers alone slashed a seasonally adjusted 168,000 jobs in February, cutting payrolls in factories that produce machinery, electronics, furniture and metals.
In the New York region, the Federal Reserve’s beige book noted earlier this week, that hiring “has virtually ground to a halt since the beginning of the year, during what is usually a busy season,” with large financial firms having “all but stopped hiring.”
“Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the district report increasingly widespread cutbacks in their employment levels in February,” the report said of New York, “and a sizable proportion expect further retrenchment in the next six months.”
Mark Ortiz was one of those who joined the ranks of the unemployed in February. Mr. Ortiz lost his job at the art-framing company where he had worked for 11 years, most recently as the production manager.
“You spend all this time doing this, and now what?” he said. “It’s almost like I’ve gotten divorced and I’ve got to find a new wife.”
He has plastered his résumé across the Internet and searches for jobs every day from his home on Long Island, but his search for a good-paying job has been hampered by the fact that he went straight to work when he was younger, and never got a college degree.
“I was a guy who worked his whole life,” Mr. Ortiz said. “That was a major strike against me, a major strike.”
The jobless rate for people with a bachelor’s degree or beyond is 4.1 percent — its highest point in years, but still lower than the unemployment rate for people with less education. Of workers with only a high-school diploma, 8.3 percent were unemployed, and 12.6 percent of people who did not graduate from high school were unemployed.
Still, years of professional experience and multiple degrees, including one in law, have not sheltered people like Jeffrey Green, 53, of Placentia, Calif.
Mr. Green said he had sent out 1,000 résumés and posted his credentials on more than 100 job boards since he was laid off from his management position at a data-analysis firm in January. With no immediate prospects in sight, he is considering going to Japan to teach English, reprising his Japanese studies from his years as a college undergraduate.
“I’m just resigned,” he said. “I’m thinking, if I’m not going to make a lot of money I may as well have fun doing it.”
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